The big GBP risk events come thick and fast this week
There’s lots for pound traders to digest this week with three big data points and some big Brexit decisions coming.
Here’s the run down;
- Tuesday – Labour market report – Wages the big focus as always. Last month avaerage earnings was 2.8% y/y and is expectaed to rise to 3.0%. (ex-bonus 2.8% exp vs 2.6% prior y/y)
- Wednesday – CPI and PPI – CPI stands at 2.7% y/y and is expected unchanged. The Core is forecast to rise a pip to 2.5%
- Also Wednesday – Big Brexit showdown in Parliament – There’s a debate on the withdrawal bill and the government could be in for a sticky time as the House of Lords get to have their say in a series of debates starting Tuesday. Apparently, there are so many Lords that want to speak, the House is going to open earlier than usual on both days. There’s also the possibility of a vote on a cross party bill on the customs union part of the withdrawal bill, with some still wanting the UK to remain part of it. There’s a low risk of the government being voted down but it will be the scale of any opposition to the governments position (remains steadfast in leaving the customs union) that might ruffle some feathers. If there’s a large opposition in the Lords, that puts pressure on what happens in the House of Commons. The pre-cursor to all this is a Lords select committee Tuesday morning on Parliaments role in the terms of Brexit. The BBC has a full run down on what’s going on.
- Thursday – Retail sales for March – This could be a volatile one as it will include the fall out from the bad weather seen in the month which, even by our standards, was quite bad. The market is expecting sales to fall 0.5% vs 0.8% prior m/m (-0.5% exp vs -0.6% prior ex-fuel) which to me looks a little on the low side as I’d have pegged it worse. With the market leaning towards a soft number, the main risk will be if the data goes the other way and is not as bad as expected. Remember also that Easter fell at the end of March and that can bring a big retails boost.
Lots to go on and that’s only from the UK side so it’s set to be a busy week. ForexFlow will have all the news and moves for you as they come.
We wish you a great trading week.
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Cable should rally iwell nto the Wages prints. CPI`s could take a little upside with energy prices increasing. Betty might be rallying hard into retails because as you say Ryan, a slight beat on expectations could be on the cards. Very big week all around.
Retails could be volatile but it’s the potentially weakest part of the 3 data points. I feel the tone will be set by the jobs and CPI reports so retails could give us an opportunity if it moves the pound against the trend in place from the prior data. Let’s say GBP is strong after CPI & Jobs but retails are really bad. I would consider buying that dip.
Also cable is now trading above the 200 WMA for the first time since 2015
Yep, that could be very significant.