US Q2 data roundup on 27.07.2018

  • prior 2.0%, revised to 2.2%
  • GDP QoQ 3.2% vs 2.3% exp, prior 2.2%, revised to 2.0%
  • Prelim Q2 Core Personal consumption expenditures QoQ 2.0% vs 2.2% expected
  • prior 2.3%
  • PCE prices 1.8% vs 2.0% exp, prior 2.5%
  • Real consumer spending 4.1% vs 0.9% prior

USD is a tad lower missing the headline “rumours” but beating on the deflator. Spending is up as I expect the buyers to have rushed before tariffs will/would kick in, probably linked to the PCE prices too, fire sales may have taken place.
A mixed picture,10 yr US yields are shying off the 2.985% peak to 2.9650% right now.
It’s all pretty neutral, with this nuance that the raw data are strong again in the US, USD shouldn’t fall to deep. I expect us to continue to trade ranges for now into the options expiry report and Michigan consumer data, which will show the July sentiment where tariff picture may get a bit more clarity.



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