The Commitment of Traders net speculative positions report from the CFTC as of Tuesday 28 August 2018
- JPY -46k vs -47k prior
- EUR -7k vs -5k prior
- GBP -77k vs -72k prior
- AUD -45k vs -50k prior
- NZD -24k vs -25k prior
- CAD -25k vs -27k prior
- CHF -45k vs -47k prior
- BTC -1472 vs -1266 prior
- S&P +3373 vs +1391 prior
- US10 -530k vs -701k prior
GBP shorts receive more pain as they increase and get hit by another big jump in the pound. Last week they suffered a 200 pip rise and the quid tacked on another 200 this week.
Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
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Hi Ryan and all.
Okay, not every week a party, but this week’s net result looks modest compared to last week’s, I managed to finish 2 pips above the +100 (at 1% margin).
Some thoughts …
USD/CAD
I’ll think Nafta neg. will come to a conclusion end next week, with, initially, CAD euphoria.
Once over, and the agreement scrutinized for small-print and details we will probably discover that it is no good deal at all for Canada (because they tried to out-bluff the Donald, and failed completely in trying so), and USD will take over.
Here’s hoping that the initial move will get CAD to somewhere at the 200 DMA (now at 2844), which would represent -imho- one fantastic entry point for a huge long (heavy on the trigger) !
EU
In last week’s rally (which was very good for me) I observed over the last 2 days: “mostly dealer/algo driven, looking tired”.
Surprise surprise (or not), EU continued north the first 3 days, however …
EU did not even manage to get to the end-of-July resistance area at 1745-50, and gave up all the gains over the last 2 days.
Plus, it seems the more serious part of the EU-US trade deal/war is coming to the EZ very soon …
Let’s see if EU next week goes for the eighth (!) re-look at the 1750 area.
If not, we can ready ourselves for a trip into the deep south towards 13 (and lower).
GU
Closes higher for the week, mostly to the Barnier headline however, and that’s exactly the problem, one negative Brexit event/headline and we’re back at 2800-50.
Plus, for the moment, no negative Brexit news is considered bullish, but the clock is ticking, no progress in Brexit negotiations eventually will end up bearish for GBP due to theta (time decay).
UJ
This week’s low bounced off the lower Senkou limit nicely but finishing still lower for the week.
I Expect UJ to keep moving sideways for the time being.
Have a good weekend all.
Ps: Ryan, I read your long EUR/CHF idea, mine is (+/-) same for GBP/CHF.
Hi AGP
Good analysis.
Don;t forget to drop the BOC into your thoughts. It’s the same day NAFTA talks start up again. Could be a wild rise and a chance to grab some quick pips. If we get a hike/hawkish BOC and a NAFTA deal we could be looking at 1.25.
Pretty much all the rest I mentioned much the same in my closing post so I’m with you there.
Have a great weekend.