July 2018 UK industrial production and construction output data 10 September 2018
- Prior 0.4%
- 0.9% vs 1.1% exp y/y. Prior 1.1%
- Manufacturing output -0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
- 1.1% vs 1.5% exp y/y. Prior 1.5%
- Construction output 0.5% vs -0.7% exp m/m. Prior 1.4%
- 3.5% vs 2.6% exp y/y. Prior 2.2%
Softer all round, except for construction, which can be volatile.
- Warm weather & the World Cup helped services; especially retail sales
- Construction also seeing a rebound from slow start of year
- Industrial production weighed down by manufacturing dip; low energy demand
- No evidence of stockpiling seen in the numbers
- Goods exports/imports up by more with the EU vs non-EU 12-mths to Jul 2018
- Total trade deficit narrowed 13.8B to 17B 12-mths, with trade in services widening
- On a CVM basis, the trade balance narrowed 3-mths-to-Jul
- GDP contributions (Jul): Serv=0.21%, Prod=0.01%, Cons=0.03%, Agri=0.00%
GBP not doing much at all on any of the data, though there’s a lot to chew on.
Overall, there’s a lot of temporary factors in the numbers and nothing that changes the bigger picture.