July 2018 UK industrial production and construction output data 10 September 2018

  • Prior 0.4%
  • 0.9% vs 1.1% exp y/y. Prior 1.1%
  • Manufacturing output -0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
  • 1.1% vs 1.5% exp y/y. Prior 1.5%
  • Construction output 0.5% vs -0.7% exp m/m. Prior 1.4%
  • 3.5% vs 2.6% exp y/y. Prior 2.2%

Softer all round, except for construction, which can be volatile.

ONS notes;

  • Warm weather & the World Cup helped services; especially retail sales
  • Construction also seeing a rebound from slow start of year
  • Industrial production weighed down by manufacturing dip; low energy demand
  • No evidence of stockpiling seen in the numbers
  • Goods exports/imports up by more with the EU vs non-EU 12-mths to Jul 2018
  • Total trade deficit narrowed 13.8B to 17B 12-mths, with trade in services widening
  • On a CVM basis, the trade balance narrowed 3-mths-to-Jul
  • GDP contributions (Jul): Serv=0.21%, Prod=0.01%, Cons=0.03%, Agri=0.00%

GBP not doing much at all on any of the data, though there’s a lot to chew on.

Overall, there’s a lot of temporary factors in the numbers and nothing that changes the bigger picture.

Ryan Littlestone

Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”

Read how Ryan got into trading here
Ryan Littlestone

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