Q3 2018 US GDP data 26 October 2018
- Q2 4.2%
- Sales 1.4% vs 2.0% exp. Prior 5.4%
- Consumer spending 4.0% vs 3.8% prior
- GDP deflator % vs 2.1% exp. Prior 3.3%
- PCE 1.6% vs 2.0% exp. Prior 2.0%
- Core PCE 1.6% vs 1.8% exp. Prior 2.1%
- Exports -3.5% vs 9.3% prior
- Imports 9.1% vs -0.6% prior
Looks good on the front end but some issues underneath. A big drop in exports and prices looking softer.
Business investment was up 0.8% but far from the 8.7% in Q2. Biz investment in structures was down 7.9% vs 14.5% prior. Home investment dropped 4% vs -1.3% prior.
A real mixed bag. It’s lower GDP but not as much as expected but with some red flags.
A lot is being made about the inventories, which added 2.07 PP to the change in GDP. In real terms it was 76.3bn vs 36.8bn prior. The weather might also have played a part but the commerce dept says it’s not possible to estimate the overall impact.
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