A short but sweet review of the week
I’m going to be honest with you, I’m knackered. This week has been very draining. The Brexit and political mess has worn me down. I’m fighting with trying to be objective, so I can deliver the news from a trading viewpoint but also personally growing increasingly frustrated and angry at the ability of my country’s political institution to self implode. Not allowing one to affect the other has been tough this week. It’s a real shitshow.
So, I won’t bore you with a detailed brief of the Brexit events, I’ll just offer my review in the way of song;
UK and EU agree the draft terms of Brexit
Theresa May and the Brexit deal get ripped to shreds and she, and her plans look in tatters
Theresa May fights back from a possible confidence vote and says’s she’s going to fight for her deal
GBPUSD started the week going up but after the deal announcement is was all…
I can hardly tell you what happened elsewhere.
EURUSD went from looking like the sick dog of FX to Crufts Champion as it crawled from under 1.1220 all the way up to 1.1416 as I type.
It was a week of breaks as AUDUSD had a late break of the 0.7300 level. USDJPY broke below the 113.60 area that had marked the lows the for around 6 trading days and is looking to close below 113.00. One thing to take into consideration, the low has touched the top of the daily cloud, and cloud tech is strong in this pair.
For once, Trump wasn’t centre stage but there’s still some hope for a Chian deal as he said he said they’re not far off meeting his expectations on issues but added that a deal is still some way off. What shook the market and USD more was two Fed speakers injecting a caution about the Fed applying the breaks to rate hikes and that neutral might be close. That was slap round the chops for USD and yields. 10’s hover close to the 3% level once again.
Trading wise, some wins and some losses on cable, USDJPY shorts paid out after over a week of waiting, and I’m riding the AUDUSD break of 0.7300.
Once again, a warning that the UK poses yet more gap risk as the May no confidence vote story will carry on all through the weekend. Leaders have to take the rough with the smooth but I wish Theresa May a pleasant weekend as she’s been through the mill for doing nothing more than her job, as she sees best. That’s the least we should expect from those in power, for right or wrong. She was dealt a crappy hand from the start and now in the midst of backstabbing from her own party, she’s trying to stand strong, and that gets my respect.
As per usual, mucho respect to my colleagues for some outstanding trading. The same for the traders in the ForexFlow trading room. Never a dull moment and so much enthusiasm. If you want to join our growing community of real-time traders, check out the ForexFlow platform.
To all you readers, thanks for taking part. Do have a good and peaceful weekend.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
- The last NFP competition of 2022 - December 1, 2022
- Will this month’s US NFP be a horror show? - October 4, 2022
- US NFP competition – Do you think there’s going to be a turn in the US jobs market? - August 31, 2022
good stuff. GJ is at the bottom of its daily cloud. now, considering H4 we see there is a potential harmonic buy Gartley which in fact might not be fully formed as GJ could drop another 200 pips towards the 143 zone. if so, the Gartley would look like this, a textbook pattern as all the fib #s are classic: 50, 78, and 2.0; the D point would be around the embedded ABCD fib projection of 1.618 which also coincides w/ a weekly s/r and general PA s/r. all this is what we want in a Gartley to be considered perfectly harmonic.
on a daily chart, we see there’s a larger potential bearish bat formation whose right wing could possibly start forming once the aforementioned bullish Gartley becomes active, which mean an upmove to complete the wing, so 100s of potential pips. D endpoint could happen at 1.0, 1.272, or 1.618 fib projection of the embedded ABCD structure. only time will tell.
here the hypothetical Gartley w/ D 200 pips lower:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/87a17025a062dc6fc682f441d7a7b00fb518ad03a2f84bf60f2b23b9c9ed092a.png
here is the current bullish Gartley on H4 if we don’t drop 200 more pips, and we see it is also perfectly formed (50, 78, 78, 1.63 which is close enough to 1.618, D is exactly at 1.272 fib projection of ABCD structure).
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9ae73684a870d98c7d7ddc02ac2f40aea1cbe00b2bd594999b55fc651117d545.png
to be sure, to take w/ a grain of salt. nonetheless, something to consider in terms of PA structure. so take your pick, 200 pips short more or start positioning for longs now.
I wish I knew what all that meant Grassy. Is it going up or down? 😉
LOL it’s a scalping day today. would be nice if any pattern brought us directional certainty 😉 . but intraday, if we break the bottom support of the range (144.39/25), i see 200 more pips to the downside to 143ish. hold there w/ some bullish PA, and we have an active bull Gartley w/ retrace long in cable and it could be one of those wild rides invalidating all of last week’s shorting.
for now, ping-pong between daily pivots R1 and S1.