A crunch point for my USDCNH shorts
Since August, I’ve been shorting USDCNH in rallies towards the 7.0 level and offloading in the dips. With the G20 meeting coming up and a sideline meeting between Trump and China’s Xi, I’m going to be looking to reduce my risk further, should the price full further in anticipation of their meeting.
I personally don’t think that the meeting will herald anything new, or more positive than we’ve already got. We’re hardly likely to be getting a trade deal confirmation, so the most we should expect, on the positive side, is a commitment to increase negotiations. There is of course a real risk that Trump comes back from the meeting proclaiming that China hasn’t budged on their stance and so more tariffs will be coming. Either way, it’s a potentially high risk event.
I spoke about it in more detail to the folks at Core Finance today.
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