October 2018 UK industrial production, GDP and trade balance data 10 December 2018

  • Industrial production -0.6% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
  • -0.8% vs -0.2% exp y/y. Prior 0.0%
  • Manufacturing output -0.9% vs 0.0% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
  • -1.0% vs 0.0% exp. Prior 0.5%
  • Construction -0.2% vs -0.5% exp m/m. Prior 1.7%
  • 3.8% vs 3.2% exp y/y. Prior 3.0%

Trade balance

  • Visible trade bal -11.87bn vs -10.50bn exp. Prior -9.73bn. Revised to -10.68bn
  • Non-EU trade bal -4.25bn vs -3.15bn exp. Prior -2.34bn. Revised to -2.95bn
  • Trade bal -3.30bnbn vs -1.27bn exp. Prior -0.03bn. Revised to -2.23bn

GDP

  • 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
  • 1.5% vs 1.6% exp y/y. Prior 1.5%
  • 0.4% vs 0.4% exp 3m/3m. Prior 0.6%
  • Index of services 0.2% vs -0.1% prior m/m
  • 1.8% vs 1.6% prior y/y

Softer looking data but probably not unexpected. ONS says there’s a risk of Q3 GDP being revised down on the higher trade deficit. Funnily enough, GBPUSD rose 20 pips. to 1.2735.

Ryan Littlestone
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