UK CPI dips but matches expectations in November 2018

November 2018 UK CPI, PPI and RPI data 19 December 2018

• CPI 2.3% vs 2.3% exp y/y. Prior 2.4%
• 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%
• Core 1.8% vs 1.8% exp y/y. Prior 1.9%
• 0.3% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
• RPI 0.0% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%
• 3.2% vs 3.2% exp y/y. Prior 3.3%
• RPI ex-mortgage interest 0.0% vs 0.1% prior m/m
• 3.1% vs 3.2% prior y/y
• ONS says the downward effect came from lower petrol prices, and cheaper video games, which were partly offset by tobacco.

PPI

• Input prices -2.3% vs -3.0% exp m/m. Prior 0.8%
• 5.6% vs 4.6% exp y/y. Prior 10.0%. Revised to 10.3%
• Output prices 0.2% vs -0.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m
• 3.1% vs 2.9% exp y/y. Prior 3.3%
• Core output 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.3%. Revised to 0.4%
• 2.4% vs 2.3% exp y/y. Prior 2.4%. Revised to 2.5%

Oct HPI

• 2.7%% vs 3.4% exp y/y. Prior 3.5%

CPI pretty much bang on the money. PPI comes in better but only marginally. Not much to see here really and we’re all waiting for the latest run lower in oil to filter through. GBPUSD not doing much 1.2640-55.

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Ryan Littlestone

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