Q3 2018 UK GDP final revision 21 December 2018

  • GDP final 0.6% vs 0.6% exp q/q. Prior 0.6%. Q2 0.4%
  • 1.5% vs 1.5% exp y/y. Prior 1.5%
  • Business investment -1.1% vs -1.2% prior q/q
  • -1.8% vs -1.9% prior y/y
  • Exports 1.1% vs 2.7% prior q/q
  • -1.3% vs 0.7% prior y/y
  • Imports 0.8% vs 0.0% prior q/q
  • 0.2% vs -0.5% prior y/y
  • Employee compensation 1.4% vs 1.3% prior q/q
  • 4.2% vs 3.9% prior y/y
  • Disposable income 0.0% q/q
  • 1.4% y/y
  • Household spending 0.5% unch q/q
  • 1.8% unch y/y
  • Gross fixed cap formation 0.5% vs 0.6% prior q/q
  • -0.3% vs 0.0% prior y/y

Nothing much to write home about. The wires are screaming that biz investment is the worst since Q1 2016 but it was better than the prelim so how bad did that make it. GBPUSD doing nothing at 1.2660.

Household spending was unchanged but that’s no good if disposable income isn’t there. The only other plus side was wages being revised up. That suggests that everything that’s coming in, is going out on bills. That could show a softer consumer down the line.

Ryan Littlestone

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