A look at what levels are in play.
Looking at how he market has build up to this meeting and the amplitude of the moves that went paired with it, we need to look at the wider picture.
The market is really expecting or hoping better said for the EU to give in to some of the UK’s wishes, at least that’s how it traded the past 48hrs.
So there is an equally big risk if Juncker doesn’t come over the bridge with anything but the latest “clarifications” to the text of the Backstop.
A third possibility is a simple extension.
In cases 1 and 2, a big YES or NO, which would mean a binary event, we can expect the biggest, cleanest moves.
There are 2 distinct levels and it are big figures. 1.30 on the one hand and 1.32 on the other. A break of either may grant another 200-250 points move if what we’re hearing tonight is big enough.
In Case 3 I expect more hesitation, a possible quick rally on the announcement but then a gradual move back down as investors won’t like the fact of more and longer uncertainty in their plans to move on with this beast.
Listening to what the EU has said lately, I’m afraid we may only get a half baked cake here. The best I can see is the extension if we get this much. My finger is closer to the disappointment sell button going into the presser, expected from 18.50 gmt.
There are 2 distinct levels to trade and it are big figures. 1.30 on the one hand and 1.32 on the other. A break of either may grant another 200-250 points move if what we’re hearing tonight is big enough. I won’t get involved before these levels in that case, we might not even have the time as algo’s will be all over it.
In case of disappointment and cable would fall out of bed, closely watch that 1.2750/2800 zone from where the latest thorough rebounds have developed.below there the 1.2450/2500 would seem a lot closer again.
Topside if we get good news, a break of 1.3200 should open the way to 1.3425 and …?
Plenty to go for tonight, sharpen the harpoons but stay safe, have a plan. Happy hunting
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