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Friday, last work day for the fortunate — Waiting for the fish to bite or waiting for wind to fly a kite. Or waiting around for Friday night or waiting perhaps for their uncle Jake or a pot to boil or a string of pearls or a pair of pants or a wig with curls or another chance. Everyone is just waiting. – Dr. Seuss
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Collects more scalps than Crazy Horse and newly crowned Bitcoin & Dow top calling master.
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
Latest posts by Horatio Dubsly (see all)
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Good morning shiny happy people,
-Gotobi Tokyo fixing took USDJPY for a ride up to 109.75 after NK declared to be open for talks with US. Impressive but I reckon there must have been some short term shorts getting taken out in the process, accelerating the move. Anyways, I squared up EURJPY just now on the early morning dip as it’s holding the 127.70/90 and never know whether all the fighters become best buddies going to the pub on the weekend… Will gauge 127.70 or 128.70/80 for action.
-Short EURUSD again, data still EURO negative, bounces are short lived and stopping short of the first decent hurdle @ 1.1785
-Long USDCHF, USD bid on dips and EURCHF feels supported by the Jordan hand at 1.1600. It held right where it had to yesterday, in front of the 0.9880 support. Will be happy tp’er around parity if seen.
-Long AUDNZD, stop 1.0895. Bottom of the weekly cloud 1.0945 resisting, need a break there for a visit to the next big figure .
-The rest as it comes, loads of data and speakers again today plus some more Ecofin for our enjoyment.
Stay safe , happy hunting, TGIF
@AntBarton89 28m28 minutes ago Anthony Barton Retweeted Gustavo Baratta
With stories doing the rounds that the Spanish opposition is set to call a confidence vote on Rajoy as well……………@gusbaratta The news isn’t that the BTP 10yr spread to Bunds is back over 200 bps, but that spread to Spanish 10yr is at levels (103bps) last seen in December 2011.
#ItalianJob
Good stuff Roro. Thanks
tok a short in usd.cad at 1,29165 just for the dnt and resistance lately..tight sl
And a eur.chf long at 1,1602 because “someone” seems to be protecting 1,16..And a jpy.nok short after good (as expected) job numbers aiming for the world to find common sense today and ignore the twitter troll running the US 😉
Hi Stefan,
We need the baskeball player about now 😉
Euro under pressure as Italian-German spreads taking the 200 bar this morning
i got some help today for my TP under 10.20 in eur.sek…but with todays news i might have to aim lower 🙂
Ha, you must have sold the 16’s I bought 😀
thank you..got a few pips but it ran out pretty fast…oil is not helping cad
I don’t think it knows what it’s doing. It’s in headless chicken mode right now.
I give it a new try at 1,29185 med sl at 1,1926 before i head out of the door… 😉
Also added some eur.nok after the SEK news in hopes of a week close under 9,47 but does not look to promising at the moment..
Have a good weekend!
todays entry in eur.chf triggered by sl at 1,1620 (also have a older position running) – usd.cad sl triggered at 1,2904…a few pips but nothing much to celebrate the weekend with…Will give them both a second go if things look ok at a later point..
My open positions – Short EURNZD, EURAUD, EURUSD, USDJPY ,
i closed GBPJPY yesterday .
Today in Asia I added back to my USDJPY short trade to make it a ‘full fat ‘position after banking half yesterday.
Good morning,
well, it seems EUR is under attack again, pressure from italian political news and today news on confidence vote from Spain will not help either. USD is bought in the morning, all these helping my open positions nicely: short EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURNOK, GBPJPY and long USDCHF which enjoys the defend hand of the great basketball player 🙂
Only with short USDCAD I’m in trouble as approaching the DNT upside barrier. Here N=good news about NAFTA or CB comment about rate increase may accelerate to the downside. Happy trading
eur.nok at 9.47 has been a stubborn one…hope SEK news today will help tipp the scale on eur.nok so that it can go back into range between 9,25 and 9,40 🙂
The USDJPY chart looks interesting . If it cant find a footing soon I fancy this ones a gonna .
The arrows mark the short positions – A fall below 108.80 and I will be tempted to get greedy and add once again for a longer term trade .
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/485c24034ed1a16b2a737d3e1283e46ad010b5dd17a48bd223ba728f8f0017da.png
Morning all
Had a day to forget yesterday with PC problems and crap like that. One of those days where nothing goes right and you wished you’d stayed in bed. We all have ’em.
Anyway. the only thing that did go right was my USDCAD short from 1.2915. Outed some down to 1.2875 and took the balance off a little earlier at 1.2916 because I didn’t like the PA and the continued testing of that DNT. Sellers are strong though so if I do go again, it will be as tight as I can get it to the 20 level with the same tight stop above 30. Kman nailed the likely possible outcomes on the Live Blog.
UK GDP up in a bit. and the market is looking for an unchanged number of 0.1% q/q. That leaves the gate open for a higher revision, if some of the weather effect drains out. The market will be leaning towards a better number so anything worse will probably hit the quid fairly hard.
I still think Aussie and Kiwi have room to strengthen further, no matter how USD would move. I will reassess after the extended weekend ahead and buy dip in the meantime.
wow. so confident you are. the central bank governor’s of kiwi and aud don’t think so. don’t fight the CB.
I just hope I’m not over confident:-), I use stop to define my risk and I firstly already put the possible loss in my mind before going in. Thanks, N.
I rather like those too. Kiwi looks coiled and ready to roll . Problem is I’ve been thinking that all week and no action 🙂 … Todays the day !
Opened a small long Kiwi 0.6919
Yeah, I’ve been stared at 0.69 level for days for my long to be triggered, I know I’m the one ” dick for tick” as what Ryan described:-p
Haha, it happens to us all Chen.
Howdy folks. Been nailed to the room this morning and watching my stocks, so here`s what I did on the room.
Longed Guppy to shave a bit off the Yen and took a quick chunk there on a full position and 40+ pips (I don`t count pips, I just look at the money) Took another long Gups on the rinse and repeat. Almost caught wrong long and ditched for a tiny. Cable pendings short and long not triggered but the short pending break of 1.3290 is back on.
Took the short Berlins as we call them (EURGBP 87774 and have locked a very nice chunk into 8765. Let that one dance some more.
Missed the Kiwi on Dollar short as Magics and I were discussing it. magics is well into that one. We like short the Bird.
A busy morning tinkering around the edges. Things are shaping up for a Friday shake-out of sorts.
Happy hunting and happy karaoke day
my question today lol when looking at performance and wins/losses and amount at risk particularly the risk part is it better to focus on pips gained/loss and the stop size in pips or to work with $ (or £ in my case) value of the gains and losses and the £ value of the stop rather than the pip size?
I just look at the money Jack. I don`t count pips. I have a stab at counting them sometimes. A bit pointless I always think. You can`t spend pips and they don`t pay the bills. The only merit in counting pips is for range purposes imho. I don`t even bother with that. Pips are for geeks imho. Look at the money
I agree with Si.
I don’t know how you trade but for spreadbetting, you designate your own £-per pip when you trade. I don’t trade ‘lots’ and all that stuff so I work out my trade entry, stops, and possible target in pips, then I know how much to assign to the trade. As Si says, the pips count is just for maths to then work out the money., which is the important consideration.
@ryanlittlestone:disqus @disqus_RuIZYiGKpF:disqus fair enough it’s not like you can go out for dinner and ask how pips the steak will be.
I can see now then in theory your physical stop can then be any amount of pips and can be placed as the market dictates rather than by the amount of pips you want to lose or not, but obviously the wider the stop the smaller the position which eventually will mean the gains are so small on the position unless a long term idea it won’t be worth it. Also i don’t spreadbet i can adjust my position completely flexibly in terms of what i need once the stop distance is found in pips first then. Also you can then easily say a full position would mean me losing x amount (what ever is my comfort level or max loss on a single trade) and divide it down for when you want to divvy a trade up in to 1/4’s or scale in.
Thanks for advice again guys think i had this a little backwards as i was focused on a stop being x pips wide, deciding it was to many to risk but the market structure was telling me clearly that that is where the stop should be logically.
Yes and no. I’m all about making money, big or small. If I see a sure fire trade for 1 pip I’ll take it, even if I risk 10 (has to be very sure fire).
So if I have to trade smaller because of my risk parameters then so be it. It’s still a trade and it’s still profit if it works. Like I said the other day, we should never be swayed by the jackpot prospects. It’s hard enough to make money trading without trying to ignore a potential profit just because it’s small. All profit is worth it, if your risk is under control.
“think i had this a little backwards as i was focused on a stop being x pips wide, deciding it was to many to risk but the market structure was telling me clearly that that is where the stop should be logically.”
I think you’ve nailed it and it’s a problem a lot of people have. They think pips not amounts. How can you manage your money if you don’t know how much your risking because you’re focused on pip counts? You’ve taken the right step in identifying the problem, now you have to work at fixing it.
I understand where you`re coming from Jack. Important thing is you know how much you`re prepared to risk and that is always the primary consideration.
key take away then as long as i control £ risk depending on the situation that’s key, and i must admit i do have a knack of being slightly backwards looking at past moves and saying what could have been (though i heard somebody say once the returns at hindsight capital are always great) or a small trade comes along and i say it’s not worth it, will work on these in the coming week’s. But i can now see being flexible in the risk be that taking less or more means more opportunities are available really and it seems like a bit of an art to perfect and do well, will take time.
Thanks for great answers this week, definitely a massive help to try and figure out where I’m going wrong have a good weekend all, I’m out *drops mic*
Update from the room. Took 87479 from 87774 short Berlins for a hefty chunk. On hands for now to look for a Friday close victim. Any ideas welcome.