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holding GBPUSD up to 100 H4 MA around 1.3415 and EURGBP down to 0.8700.
Waiting tmr GBP Services PMI for next move
Looking like it means business Zoran .
Nicely played .
hello community
good day everyone
usd : Latest Personal Income & Spending
Numbers Are Solid..Improved Consumption Means Strong Q2 GDP Growth no
need to start selling your dollars and no reason .. minor pullbacks on a
priced in june hike to go back higher and touch 98-99 this quarter
….this the usd quarter by excellence
eurusd : latest pmi still show slowdowns .. inflation wise was
jump due to transitory factors higher oil prices but still well below 2
percent …any upside will face a strong supply zone 1.1735-1.1770
expecting to shoot lower this quarter till 1.11 area ….fear of populists will creep soon or later and will be spread all over europe bye bye confidence and might delay end of qe
looking for an entry to buy gbp on dips if happened on bad brexit news and sell eurgbp and eurjpy
trade of the week sell gold rallies
U said it…Priced in hike. What if it didn’t come?! It wouldn’t be the first time
NOP it will come growth model due to tax will show improved economy but the offer is only for this quarter long term no … ath this quarter and after to have crash
Morning Sensei Dodgy Shirt.
Short Dow, U/J. Long Aud/usd and gold. Farts to 3 of them yay to 1!
U/J might benefit from risk on today but I Iike building long term shorts here. 113 area is the think again where that huuuuge trend line resides from the 125.85 highs.
Aud usd is off to a crckerjack start for the month. Quite a few road bumps upwards to navigate.
Dow as you all know is my core possies. In and out with good success this year. I have an odd feeling that this summer might be testing the indices highs again on light volumes, so will stay nimble and job long if needed.
Gold. Bummer. That failure of a bounce on Friday was the alarm bells for me. I don’t like the trade anymore. So I will try and make an orderly exit from it and lick my wounds.
Trying to bounce back as well this week after a torrid trade ballsed my account up on eur/gbp. Price went to target as well to rub salt into the gaping wounds. But when 1 makes a fat “carrot” fingered trade 1 has to live with the consequences.
Looking around the charts, I sort of like eur/usd buys but no compelling reason and eur/chf longs, again being nimble using 1.145 as a base. Cable could put in a solid rally if the usd drops off the pace but TBH I don’t see Usd taking its foot off the pedal.
I’ve waffled enough.
Have a good week all.
Welcome to the new trading week.
The prize for the ‘no brainer’ trade of the day so far was long AUDUSD.
A trio of data beats today in Asia bode well for Wednesday’s Q1 GDP print .
Some small consolidation here would not surprise ……. One for the dip buyers imo if not long already .
June is statistically a very good month for Aussie, as pointed out last week with 8/10 positive closes over the last ten years . 9 in the previous 11 years
Knowing my luck it’ll be 9 out of 12….
Dont you dare put the mockers on Aussie. ;))
I’m in it too …holding your hand ( in a manly way of course 😉
*sucking my thumb here*
It’s amazing you’ve got any thumb left .the way you keep mistaking it for a carrot and chopping bits off of it Cheffers ?
the no brainer one sell euraud good day H
Hi Merlin
Ah…… yes indeedy 😉
I also had a touch on that one myself – Super stuff !
thanks thats good idea Harry 😉
nop not harry or bestman or or or i am another eur shorter that happens to agree with his view ..not every eur shorter is harry
U mean me merlin?!! Not sure I follow here!!
the problem here harry became a trademark for shorts
EU shorts u mean? So what? I’m a trademark too? I held my shorts just as long and exited at exactly the right time.
I don’t think Merlin was picking you out Bestman, just answering muddy’s comment that he wasn’t Harry (or anyone else) and was also shorting EU as well.
Thx Ryan. I didn’t think he was. Just making things clear. No worries 🙂
Hey mud, U should probably know that Harry stopped commenting online since Friday. He told me so over the phone. I don’t really blame him. While some walk the walk, the majority others are on these sites just to talk!
me too recently decided to comment to minimum. too many emotional traders nowadays in that other fx site. i think those traders are culled by the market regularly but thanks to trump many assets are moving within range for long time so they are here for longer than usual. btw i been reading harry for long time. so when i read ‘merlin’s comment, it had many phrases that Harry would use. may be im wrong.
Harry undercover? I would kill him. Well, I’m sure you know some thought I’m Harry as well on some other site. Personally, I don’t give a damn. I told Harry to ignore trollers but he just wouldn’t listen to me. Waste of time and effort. The way I see it, the sites admins in general are also held responsible. A bad and inexperienced trader can easily damage both the site and the new comers.
Bestman, Harry is a big loss, ask him to reconsider, his knowledge and insights are invaluable
Hey Conor. I did ask him when he told me and U know I’m not gonna push the guy. Anyway, your msg was delivered 🙂
Im sorry he’s gone. I messaged him to reconsider . Babool can’t reach him . We miss him in our chat room.
we are all affected by harry ‘s use of words admit it or not … doesn’t mean that eu shorts should not comment many they with him saw this move ..me as well been reading him long time
It’s all good Merlin.
“those traders are culled by the market regularly” …
Wait !
You mean those 800:1 nano lot ALL CAPS “traders” …
CAJUNtrader13.2.. 🙂
This pattern looks almost exactly the same as the May 2017 bottom. We rallied 800 pips back then lol. Im already long AUDNZD and AUDGBP. Might as well buy a dip against the USD
Luv’sly trade on the AUDNZD Bestie.
I’m not allowing myself to think +800 quite yet :))
The stars do seem to be aligning for Aussie .
Thx. 800 pips is probably too much yehh. Just saying. Worth taking a look at the weekly chart to see the similarity. Btw, all it needs is for the FED to disappoint in June. Started hearing lots of talk that they will. Remember back then, the move to 81+ shocked everyone lol
Morning folks.
Still holding CADYEN`s from 84.396. Yen looks vulnerable all around for now. As discussed in the live blog room on Friday, UK prints today/tomorrow will likely see me back into GBP shorts or longs. This correction sees longs very vulnerable IF UK prints miss expectations.
I like the Aussie now, look to buy a dip somewhere this week. Good Aussie numbers overnight and a solid Q1 GDP expected.
NZDUSD remains a bullish tone, USDCHF still looks vulnerable to more upside
The Euro should give another opportunity to sell into despite the Italian job.
Happy hunting folks
Morning I too am looking at AUD and wondered what your take on the RBA is for tomorrow, as part of me wants to short AUD on a central bank unchanged and remaining patient due to stagnant unemployment and wages possibly constraining consumer spending and the recent beat in retail sales being down to Easter timing says ANZ. Or will more weight be put on a possible beat on GDP given the already positive data last night do you think? Thanks
They will have to acknowledge the data and possible upside risks to growth Jack, however, they will temper that with the risks surrounding the trade-spat going on and caution on consumer spending on discretionaries because the housing market has slowed and petrol prices are up. They could signal slight dovishness and that`s why I`ll hold off for now instead of jumping on this bandwagon. We might get a nice dip to buy into.
Ah i see, my impatience got the better of me and as suggested am only trading very small until i get the hang of things so i halved the small position and went short on my dovish expectations anyway and will add my other half of the small into 0.7650/60 if reached before the RBA event though after that and a possible dip i think id rather be out given the implications of GDP my thoughts are now it will either work or it wont I’ll have to see. Thanks for the insight 🙂
Looking to fade a bump in USDTRY from 4.450 Im now short 4.56 and 4.65
Now in small profit although friday was difficult. Quite profitable to keep short positions on that pair
Also, closed rest of my WTI shorts at 65.70 and waiting to see if it breaks the trendline.
Hi Marek,
Moody’s could downgrade Turkey soon as per Friday’s comment, but that should come as no surprise to the market barring a short term algo driven blip imo. I’m in the range observer camp for now.
Problem with TRY vs other EM’s, is that it will remain a lagger on any positive news due its geopolitical involvement. I’m still a TRY seller on rallies, maybe vs ZAR or if Nafta would finally see an agreement: long MXN/TRY would be less painful on the funding side
I agree that downgrade is pretty much priced in as well as on geopolitical issues. Waiting mostly for interest rate decision on thursday, hopefully I’ll be out by the end of the week.
im a buyer of gbp/zar on dip though.
I’m short a tad eurgbp for now. For the rest i’ll let some data go through now. Head’s spinning from to many political headlines lately. If pmi’s beat compared to European ones, GBP could pick a bit vs a few currencies indeed.
Update : Closed half of shorts at 4.60
Good morning all,
Traveling very light at the start of the week . A bit short EURGBP from Friday. Both ends of 0.8730-0.8780 will see me act. Above I may get out temporary to retry a short 0.8810/20 . A break under 0.8730 willl get me a little more short.
I’m not sure why risk is bid this morning, wouldn’t it be for some uncertainties in Europe to have gone for now as new govts are in place unless I missed news. That coincides with a front forming agst the US on trade, which keeps the $ offered despite decent data.I’m leaning towards that side over time as well but not at any price. I’d like to get a confirmation we found the top on some currencies.
I’ll trade opportunistically at the start of the week with a rangy feeling.
Have a great week
FOMO getting hold of me help! 😉
Nah just seen usdjpy capped again in the 109.70/80 zone, sold small @ 109.54. Looking to add on 110 raliies, with stop above 110.20. Eying a return to 108.90 or 108.30/50.
“I’m not sure why risk is bid this morning”.
Me neither …
Disclaimer: I’m (traditionally) not good in the transition from risk-off to risk on.
That’s never really bothered me ( the risk assessment ).
Quite often, by the time the transition has become obvious, the moves have been made.
It’s enough of a Chess game as it is without trying to second guess the minor shifts in sentiment – The major ones are always easy to see and trade. Anything less can be difficult until Capt. Hindsight makes you look like a chump 🙂
I like risk-off (and the transition into it) by far over risk-on
(I find risk-off easier to trade, clearer picture etc.)
I think, as a result of it, that I’m not good the other way around.
What you wrote -Quite often, by the time the transition has become obvious, the moves have been made-, is exactly what happens to me (way too often). I’m prob. not opportunistic enough.
Morning AGP hope you and yours are well, the most important thing there is 😉 . Trading ,there always another and another opportunity some really surprising when you sometimes catch them lol.
Thanks for this made my day (which makes sense ’cause I’m a worn out, stitched up, outdated old rotten fart) I thought I was the only one 🙂 Someone said this I don’t know why lol” what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” seems not quite right to me AGP but then again 🙂 . Have a good one my friend atvb Chris
They’re easy to locate as I said once long time ago : Riskov is Russian, Rixon is American 😉 😉 Although lately this statement may be less obvious, needs some brushing up.
Chris is right, there’s always the next one. That’s the beauty of FX as long as we keep the discipline.
Afternoon K 🙂 yep and there’s the rub discipline and a million distractions and missed/ not seen etc most in our minds lol, I put it badly really its a bit like footballers when being interviewed they can’t help saying much without going back to the old cleshay’s. Where would we be without sick as a parrot/over the moon/ take each game as it comes and on lol, atvb Chris
Book him Danno !
There’s another ?
Afternoon/Evening Dubsy my favourite part of the show, nothing changes lol, I always thought you were very good in that Dubs 😉 , atvb Chris
Good morning/afternoon/evening to all. Like H Dubsly mentioned, the no brainer so far this week is AUDUSD long. I’m splitting that position for a short on EURAUD, both of which are doing great so far. It’s a strong move and plenty of data to help or stop the move this week so, I’ll be putting up my support and resistance lines and playing those though the week. Anyone see Harry around? Tried to get in touch with him to no avail.
Harry has hung up the proverbial commenting gloves AM.
AUDNZD trade posted last friday is already 100+ in the profit.
May is over and US indices are rallying as expected last Thursday.
EU, can play the 1.1620 – 1720 range. Still watching
Yen almost done its correction. Selling EURJPY towards 129, CADJPY towards 8550 & USDJPY towards 110
Good morning fellow traders
I’m still not seeing much clarity in markets at the moment. EURUSD has obviously stopped the rot for now but we’re still not making much upside progress. A break of this 1.1720/30 area might bring a bit of clarity. I’m still long a bit from down below. I’ll look to add a small bit if we see this level break. I’m not sure to go with the break itself or wait for a confirmation test and hold.
USDJPY is seemingly in no-mans land. Japanese importers (bids) and exporters (offers) are lined up either side. Nothing of great size noted but it seems enough to keep the pair contained.
As H and some of you other folks have opined, AUDUSD is off to the races after the positive data. Into 0.7600 looks to be the dip area to grab and that can be kept tight for new comers with a stop under 0.7580.
USDCAD is still a pair that I think is going to offer plenty of opportunities. Outside of the trade issues, I think you’ve got to go with the BOC expectation trade and sell rallies into 1.30/1.31.
I hope you all have a great week.
Hi Ryan… what is your take on eu current price action?
Hi HS.
We’re only now seeing the break higher through this 20/30 area so I’m looking for 30 to become support now, and will consider adding a bit to my long if it does. I was thinking about doing so against 20, which also seemed to be holding well but the battle between 20 & 30 was a bit to tight for me.
Morning everyone, Just a simple trade intraday for me, Long Cable at 13359 on the slightly upbeat PMI. Hoping for it at least 13400 which is the top of the rising 1H channel, 13422 would be even better. Again watching sentiment for any signs of a reversal. Thanks for the tip on AUDUSD big H. I may even show you one of my other dodgy shirts soon. ;>)
I’m still long from 1.3221. Added at 13350. Was hoping for a break of 1.3385 to trigger a move to test 1.3421 but I gotta say, cable is totally disappointing so far and my patience is starting to run low!
Hi Bestman, I totally get where your at, lets see if it will break R1. SL now at BE looking for a few more pips.
Would be much better to see EURGBP back below 87.40
I keep an eye on DXY for my reference as well.
Of course. Almost confirming a short term top
Now can we brake the 400????
lol. I think it’s a done deal. Hoping to clear 410-425
There is that 4 hr 100 SMA at 406, always hurdles
Is it wise to just trade what we all see and not worry too much about who is who? I can`t speak for anyone on here but I read the comments, appreciate the comments and ideas no matter who is providing them. years of experience watching people on the internet has taught me one thing: If the comments are useful, do no real harm….what`s not to like. just keep them coming in folks and don`t think too much.
Selling EURGBP at 8761, looking for a scalp below the daily piviot / 100 hr sma at 8755, May get out quickly if no real price action breaking 55. Watching
Out of both my trades with a small profit. Hardly worth the effort. With the dollar index recovering I am looking to short against the dollar??
Shorted USDJPY on that close below 109.50 more FOMO than anything tight stop so a small loss there.
Still short AUDUSD at an average of 0.7640 ahead of RBA looking for 0.7610 am aware of the fib I have around 0.7625/30 am unsure if to take half there or just hold on through. Not a great start today feel slightly out of sync but hey it all learning I suppose :/
Also I feel a BOC rate hike is still expected although a bit more mixed after GDP but still willing to try a tight short into 1.30 USDCAD and data dependant again a tight short of 1.34 in GBPUSD.