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if eurusd failed to regain 1.16 handle very quickly sell the hell out
of it we could witness a barrier hunt today or friday 1.15 and 1.1450
next downside target 1.1393
as for the upside first sell zone 1.1580-90 and then 1.1630-40
remain dx dip buyer
gbp rally seller
thank you ryan for the input on options yesterday we ask you deliver ..
happy hunting guys
My pleasure Harry.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oXBl0VpO/ “AB=CD” ? want to long at 50-36
Good morning all together.
Not a great day yesterday, underestimated the risk off, Poloz’s nuisance .
For now I’m range trading as long as EURUSD holds the 1.15 (barrier sitting there for ages) on the one and 1.16 on the other side.
For risk keep an eye on USDCNH and what the Chinese wants or needs to let happen to their currency. Doomsayers calling for Chinese businesses to be in a near panic stage over the trade wars. Hence commod currencies following suit out of fear of a bigger economic slowdown. I’m not there yet , I’m still in the camp of a guided USD appreciation, pre emptive liquidity adding to prepare for a worsening with the US while preparing to increase trade with other partners. Future will tell. In the meantime I’ll go with the flow.
Tad long EURGBP for Buba purposes but 0.8830/40 caps again, won’t hold it for to long if it doesn’t break.
Tad short USDMXN , having an offer just above 20.25 to add but will press the button before the weekend elections
Stay safe , happy hunting and GO Red Devils. It’s nearly an England vs England this afternoon as 2/3 of the Belgian squad plays in Premier League. I hope I’ll recognise my lot 😉
hello K man. what do you think about BOC Poloz? IMHO Poloz was bit honest when he was speaking to civilians and he was dovish. then in front of media turned into diff person and he was like hawkish. may be he sound hawkish because he dont want to prevent forward guidance?
Sorry delay MP, I was out doing some errands.
I think he likes to mess around with the markets mostly. I think he hates forward guidance…The trouble in this market is that the short termers seem to be wrong footed a lot of times and CB’ers are felt to take advantage of the situation to try and kill to much speculation. Testifying is that we’re back to exactly the levels where we were before. In the end CAD will rise or fall with Nafta and trade wars, not with CB’ers moving it around a big figure. My 2 bucks is in the longer run things will be ok as US manufacturers won’t let the situation go completely out of hands. The strong lobbies will manage the edges to be softened. But that’s just my personal view
Watching DXY closely this morning for a Rejection in this zone again. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/44faa2d8d050966ebfce291771a3769f7e8cf4390daa9c93f3441c998d9fb68d.png
I let some of my USDJPY short go yesterday for small pips . Will add back on weakness, but proving a difficult one to call. Still holding short EURJPY.
EURCAD short made an impressive move down to my tp for +184 pips from Tuesdays entry.
Keeping trades to a minimum as I have things to do this week that will keep me away from the screens.
Short opened in Asia in EURNZD at 1.7070 with a wide stop at 1.7120 .
Have a great day — Plenty to get into for the poachers out there .
Good morning traders
Markets remain looking worried and the fears seemed to have grown for China with a lot of chatter going around about whether they’ll mess around with the yuan again. There’s also fears that the Chinese economy might be suffering, both in part and separately to the trade war issue. So, this risk off has taken on a slightly different shade to yesterday and that was something that I had found odd, especially after the Trump softening on investment. The Chinese gossip now seems to fit the bill for what we’re seeing now. That further fuels my worries that we might see some sort of market blowout if news doesn’t change. At the moment things are fairly orderly but as we know, it only takes 1 card falling to bring the house down.
On the trading front, I cut some of my USDMXN on the bounce back through 20 at 20.02. I’m going to look to add back in at 20.50 but may half that position between 20.30 & 20.50 depending on the PA into the weekend election.
As per my trades yesterday. EURUSD long at 1.1602 was stopped, as was my GBPUSD long at 1.3110, though I did take half the cable off at 1.3117 before bed last night.
I’m still not overly clear on what’s happening in markets right now so I’ve got no real clear bias for direction. that being the case, I’ll just stick to jobbing any levels I like for a few pips. I’ll give cable some consideration down near 1.30 and the next barrier (which is larger than the 1.31).
Good luck to you all and don’t forget that if you’re around the London area later today, we’re having a world cup drink up for the England vs Belgium game and you’re all invited. Details are here – https://www.forexflow.live/2018/06/19/news/forexflow-would-like-to-invite-you-to-our-world-cup-drink-up/
Hi Ryan, Thanks for the update and invite. I have be away for a few days and now just back in the Saddle. It looks like I’ve missed the action on Cable but as usual I expect it to fall. We are currently sitting around the 100 weekly MA and the 23.6 fib from the move up sits around 13057 on my chart. Assuming Theresa May does not pull any real big positive surprise out of the hat I expect both levels to break at some point. I then don’t see much resistance until the 12789 level, but what do I know. Its the end of the month and England are playing in the World Cup. I would have loved to have joined you guys today as a token Scot, I am honestly a neutral probably with a bias towards England believe it or not but may the best team win. You may meet each other again in the Final. Have one for me. Regards Willie ps looking for an entry but on the sidelines.
Hi Will. Hope you had a nice break.
We’ll definitely raise a glass to you in your absence 😉
Small short USDRUB……longer term….crude oil strength…..Trump-Putin summit announcement…
Morning folks.
Big event of the week coming up for the USD. US GDP`s and there are some wild expectations that have come out in the last week or so. Has DXY written in to consensus or have some of the wild predictions been written in?
I`m keen to go short DXY again and perhaps we`re written in up here. We`ll have to wait for the print to find that out. Patience!
I set a Cable long pending which is filled 1.3070 and a GBPNZD pending long which is filled 1.93.
3 WTI`s running now on CFD`s averaging $67.21. Stops are locking in profit to cope with the add-on yesterday to still pay me some, so that`s a free ride now with $78 the potential target. I don`t mind giving profit away if the opportunity is great enough. The thing that can trip this trade up is: Will the production problems experienced by Venezuela, Canada, Angola and a few others continue, or be resolved? Will China, Iran and Russia really get these Yuan/Euro denominated “side” markets established fully and will China finally tell US oil to turn the ships around.
Keep watching the yield curve. It seems to be getting ever closer to where it could invert. Inverted yield curve has always signalled recession within 6 months. Investors will be watching the curve and might front-run it as they did approaching the financial crisis. UK is already well on it`s way toward a recession. Europe follows. China still looking like a hard-landing. The trade war, as it heats up, might force China into deeper easing measures and we will be amongst the last to reallise this if we jusy sit back and say “it will never happen”.
So for today, has DXY written in high expectations on US GDP`s?
For today into tomorrow, will Mrs May persuade the Eurogroup to drop the draft statement that implicitly tells all 27 EU leaders to prepare for no deal?
Happy hunting folks.