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Nothing of note on the calendar for the coming session. Many of yesterday’s moves extending through Asia.
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Opened another short EURJPY at 131.15 after closing previous one and now moved stop to breakeven. BTFD mentality continues across JPY pairs, even Aussie and Kiwi couldn’t resist and jumped on the train, CHF has been so lonely to flash sign of risk-off all the way since early Aug. and still doing so, just waiting for JPY to join the show maybe.
Nice grab Chen
Good morning all.
I’ve got a clear book bar my USDCNH short.
The balance of my EURUSD short hit the trailing stop at 1.1680.
I tp’d my USDJPY short at 111.84 yesterday while waiting for the Trump news. I didn’t see the point in risking the 13 pips profit on a headline. That proved to be the right choice given the reaction would have stopped me out through 20.
I was reluctant to get back in to anything with all the news flying around but the defined levels have held, which shows what the FX market really thinks about thee tariffs. AUDUSD & EURUSD held old resistance points.
We still might see some jumpy markets but its going to be stocks that react most to the tariff news and the market will be matching the tariffs to the companies most affected. Maybe the release of the news after the US close will give markets time to digest it but it could also mean there’s a hit list of stocks to be sold. We’ll have to see later.
Have a good day.
Good morning all,
Short EURNOK, we’re in the support zone here 9.53, a break will see it entering a congestion zone 9.48/52 where I look to tp most of it ahead of Norges Bank rate decision on Thursday. It will have been a good ride and we can’t exclude a bit of buy the rumour, sell the fact price action once they will have delivered their well telegraphed 25bps rate hike. I will leave tiny open with a rally sell bias.
Long a tad USDJPY. It’s holding pretty well, probably helped by option plays around 112, Boj expected not to do anything this meeting, Abe’s re-election at the helm of the LDP on Thursday, expectations Japan will do something about the trade imbalance with the US (more investments, possibly in infrastructure imo) when Motegi travels to meet Lighthizer or when Abe is to meet Trump. Still waiting for confirmation on the supposed 25th September that should be taking place.
Stepped out of USDCAD shorts last night after Trudeau’s comment he still wants to defend dairy. Prefer trade both ends of 1.2990-1.3080 until we get soem clarity.
For the rest I trade ranges and let stock markets guide FX for now. The spikes we saw during the night have less to do with risk than with short termers having sold into the hole after the tariff announcements. They are there, China retaliates but all in all we’re still not in disasterland (until it happens if course), uncertainty seems a better word than war for now. Shaving off 0.7% of GDP as PBOC expects doesn’t seem to put the markets in high alert either. And a well placed phone call could do wonders.
CHF, which now seems to bear the full weight so-called “risk”, will get very interesting come Thursday when SNB will come out with their verdict. Shouldn’t move the rates for now but the market will dissect any word Jordan may say on the level of the currency. 1.12 EURCHF is the (orange if not red?)gateway to 1.10, which is widely accepted as being the absolute bottom SNB will accept EURCHF to go to. But if the duties of “safe haven” are not shared with the JPY and trade wars don’t get at least hope to be resolved any time soon, the weight could prove a bit much for that one currency to bear. I’m staying out for now, prefer to sell the 1.1325/50 rallies if seen.
Happy hunting and safe travels
Only holding/trading scalps for now until I can get a handle on direction .
Shorts opened in EURUSD – EURJPY today. I have my eye on another equities short trade using US30 Dow. We rejected the top and price is retracing upwards once again. Could be a decent risk reward short once again with tight stops.