Another week of surprises in the making ?
We here made a fair deal on the GBP rebound but let’s not rest on our laurels , opportunities are around every corner .
Starting with EUR CPi’s and the Buba report on Monday , we’re heading into another week where the weight will be tilted to the latter part . For the short term traders ,
these numbers , the RBA Minutes,German ZEW , US housing data , UK retail sales ,a NZ GDT auction ,US and Japanese Trade balances could make for a
nice round of pips to make hopefully . But for the medium, longer term players , it should be a sit and wait for a few sessions after last week’s roller coaster.
An Fomc tapering announcement(?) , BOJ Policy meeting and lest not forget German and NZ elections will grab the attention as the week progresses . We’ll be updating views as we go ,
my main views being :
-GBP positive: corrected the weakness , buy dips after BOE ‘s hawkish shift and inflation looking upwards .Neutral on EU-UK Brexit talks , negative bias waning .Don’t chase the rally .
-EUR positive : buy the dips , Merkel should clinch a victory , constructive France-German EU build up beyond the elections.Positive eco numbers
-USD: neutral : tax talks positive but geopolitical risk hurts sentiments short term
-JPY : neutral to negative : Boj will keep the foot on the pedal , geopolitical risks keep the JPY selling in check . Bias to sell JPY rallies .
-NZD : neutral to positive :English expected to win elections ; resilience to commods downward pressure . Bias to buy NZD dips vs peers s.a. AUD