A possible Head and Shoulder ABCD pattern is visible on the EURUSD H4 chart.

The Federal Open Market Committee signaled this week (via dot plot) their willingness to keep the momentum with regard to Fed funds. Making a rate rise more likely at the Fed’s final meeting this year in Mid-December. USD bears were caught off guard and the dollar rallied. EURUSD and USDJPY should be the most obvious choices from a charting perspective, IF the USD were to be ‘front run’ ( bid ) leading up to the decision. CFTC  Commitment of traders data from last week showed hesitation going into the present weeks trading, with EUR longs down 10K to 86K  The previous weeks count was the highest long positioning since May 2011 at 96K .


My strategy here would be to sell a break around the 1.1840 level gunning for 1.1750. Charts are constantly evolving, so if hit, i will take some profits off the table and  hope for a continuation of trend down towards 1.1660 .I will also be watching for a spike up from here towards the ‘RS’ right shoulder level  around the 1.2030 area.  This could prove to be an even better (slightly cavalier) short entry.

Horatio Dubsly

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