Are all levels the same?

About three weeks ago a rather fantastic level came up and poked me in the eye. It was USDJPY 111.60/80

It was pre FOMC minutes and i got hurt because it melted like a hot knife through butter. Nice one.

We are now approaching this key level again so I ask you. Is it still a level to expect buyers ? The answer is yes. Will I be buying down there after new obstructions to the US tax reform circus? Yes, but much smaller than three weeks ago. My job as a trader is the play the probability of what is likely to happen whist hedging my risk to zero. That is it. Nothing more. I can not predict anything. That’s a given but I still meet students who think it is the holy grail to being a profitable trader.

Why am i buying? Look at the chart and see. 111.60/80 has stood firm then broke, then consequently stood firm – just like a marine. Look at January and February, look at September and October. Do you see ? If what i see is obvious then the market sees it. That means Goldman’s, JPM and DE Shawe can see it. So can Renaissance.

Back to the question. A level is not a level when it breaks more times that it holds. That is my opinion and it has served me well.

Good luck

Patrick Reid
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