As I posted yesterday the loonie would be my main focus over NFP’s and Canadian data .
I had it in my head that we could get a bounce, but after a stellar Canadian jobs report my trigger finger found its way to the sell button. The OIS market is now pricing in a 69% chance of a hike and selling any future rips is the play now.
Never one to look a gift moose in the mouth I have closed with a decent profit at the base of the channel.
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Happy New Year to you Horatio! How are things in China…
When it is too clear it becomes rather suspicious to me, but who am I to judge the current trend which does little to favor any breaks for the slammed US Dollar. I have now some areas where I think sellers may want to join the party in masses. Especially, (cause we never know) near 61.8% (1.3130 level) where I am bias and see no reason for the USDCAD to trade higher.
Also, Ryan mentioned on another post 1.20s which is also ING’s target in 2018. However, I am not sure what Nordea, BTMU, Barclays or ‘the bad boys’ at Morgan Stanley might be cooking. Still, if my common sense works as expected and the US Dollar Index burns in 2018, then it could be much lower and not too far from 1.1620 where this ‘hot potato’ finally lands and digs a new 2-year bottom.
What are your thoughts? I wanted to know your views too on USDJPY. Enjoy your weekend.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8f9934e043edf4cf0c5f549e575f82bf277b71836952bbfe084143adec283eca.png
Happy NY to you too Jose. Things are great with me and I hope I find you well.
There is a case for continuing lower prices on USDCAD (my chart below). The problem in the short term is the fact that the hike at the next meeting is a done deal according to the OIS at 70%. This could cause the market to decide a rate rise is priced in as we get closer to the decision .
As for USDJPY I can see the argument for lower prices. The assumption has to be that the BOJ will have to begin to loosen their grip sooner rather than later.- So far they (BOJ) have made no reference to ‘if and when’ this may begin, and they are still struggling to come to terms with the ineffectiveness of their efforts. I’m convinced they are rather disappointed and not exactly in the comfortable position they they had hoped to be in at this time. The economy is hardly screaming ahead, inflation is meh. An aging population and low birth-rate is a demographic time bomb ticking — So I’m bearish, but maybe not as bearish as the consensus- Sets us up for an interesting 2018 -)
https://www.screencast.com/t/AZiNU7uJ
Thanks for taking your time to answer my message! Appreciate it.
Yes, this too obvious short USDCAD is making me doubt, plus some how either I am drinking too much Dolcetto D’Alba (Piedmont Wine) or WTI is building in the horizon another top which translates in less support to bury the US Dollar.
I feel comfortable ‘shooting to kill’ if prices retest 1.29s with a 600-SL it will align the stars in my favor.
Cheers!