I just received a text from a big fund manager in Liechtenstein saying he’s lost his confidence in trading FX

We can all momentarily be there, at the ominous coal face – often a lonely place. Cold and no-one understands. I do and here’s my advice. A few quick tips from an old sea dog.

Flows mean that and nothing more. If USD was getting hit like yesterday expect profit taking today. Things have to get done and quick. Large funds hedging their spot risk ? Short EURUSD sellers from 1.4 big fig? (that was when Draghi said he’ll do whatever it takes) or perhaps Soros needs a better price on USDJPY before he dumps half yard of S+P – whatever the reason it doesn’t matter. Flows are flows.

Value dates are important but front running happens. 3 days will often get split. It’s good Friday which means it’s 3 days to the weekend.

Cut your size by half or don’t trade at all.

Levels still work. Why did i sell EURUSD at 1.2470 ? Because it is the 200MMA. Just saying.

Take care and watch that risk.




Patrick Reid
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