Why would you trade year end?

by | March 27th, 2018, 15:16:44 | News | 10 comments

I just received a text from a big fund manager in Liechtenstein saying he’s lost his confidence in trading FX

We can all momentarily be there, at the ominous coal face – often a lonely place. Cold and no-one understands. I do and here’s my advice. A few quick tips from an old sea dog.

Flows mean that and nothing more. If USD was getting hit like yesterday expect profit taking today. Things have to get done and quick. Large funds hedging their spot risk ? Short EURUSD sellers from 1.4 big fig? (that was when Draghi said he’ll do whatever it takes) or perhaps Soros needs a better price on USDJPY before he dumps half yard of S+P – whatever the reason it doesn’t matter. Flows are flows.

Value dates are important but front running happens. 3 days will often get split. It’s good Friday which means it’s 3 days to the weekend.

Cut your size by half or don’t trade at all.

Levels still work. Why did i sell EURUSD at 1.2470 ? Because it is the 200MMA. Just saying.

Take care and watch that risk.

 

 

 

Patrick Reid
Latest posts by Patrick Reid (see all)

10 Comments

  1. Prutar
    Prutar on March 27, 2018 at 3:37 pm

    Another reason, why EURUSD was sold there….it did exactly at R2 weekly pivot point.

    • Patrick
      Patrick on March 27, 2018 at 6:07 pm

      Hi Prutar
      Not really into pivots but if it works, it works !
      Thanks for your comments
      P

      • Prutar
        Prutar on March 27, 2018 at 9:26 pm

        They work so well, that it’s not wise to ignore. For example after EU session stopped at R2, the US session correction of EURUSD stopped exactly at R1 weekly pivot.

        • Patrick
          Patrick on March 28, 2018 at 6:37 am

          Thanks Prutar.
          It’s not really a case of ignoring them – it’s finding something that works for you. I would encourage everyone to try all types of TA. When i was a futures trader i only used fair value and Market Profile. When i moved into spot i heavily relied on moving averages. I now like to use macro charts. It seems to work for me so i’ll stick with it.

          I’ve been in the game long enough to know “all of it works some of the time”

          Stay lucky and watch that risk.

    • Patrick
      Patrick on March 27, 2018 at 6:06 pm

      Thanks for the comments London Dhal

  3. Vitor fx
    Vitor fx on March 27, 2018 at 4:25 pm

    Has he told you which markets he trusts? Stocks? With phenomenal gaps all over the place?

    IBM, Daily

    https://invst.ly/70e-2

    • Patrick
      Patrick on March 27, 2018 at 6:06 pm

      Well – stocks are a whole different story for me.
      He’s a PM so spread out a bit.

  4. H Dubsly
    H Dubsly on March 27, 2018 at 4:48 pm

    I don’t know whether to give the Liechtenstein fellow a hug or kick him in the bo***x ?

    • Patrick
      Patrick on March 27, 2018 at 6:05 pm

      A bit of both i think

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