JPY April seasonalities are on the lips.
Do they really exist? I found this interesting study over the past 15 and 40 years confirming my thoughts to say that if you want to trade them, be quick.
Japanese investors have had their fiscal yearend last month and have managed, closed some investments. Beginning of April they tend to re-invest, hence we may see USDJPY or cross JPY demand emanating from these proceedings.
But from experience, apart for some exceptional years, like when Abenomics have emerged, these moves have been short lived and soon normal market activities have resumed. This year in particular I will not trade the seasonalities. First because I haven’t seen/read any firm intention from the Japanese investors to change their portfolios aggressively. Secondly because of the Trade wars overhang, politics and Central banks’ ability to change the course of a currency intra day without warning.
I’ll be trading levels and especially take the market day by day. Of course do we need to scrutinise the Japanese markets for clues that the investors would be entering the market but I will not buy USDJPY or cross JPY this start of April just because of seasonalities and market participants talking about it.