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Big day for Euro with the ECB monetary policy rate decision – 11:45 GMT. Followed by the Press conference – 12:30 GMT.
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Hi Dubs. I’m sticking to CAD view, so keeping short EURCAD and USDCAD. On cable I lost my patience, closed my short as 1.3920-25 is cemented. Went small long based on: what can’t go down, will go up 😉
Ahoy hoy Gabs……I also had a nice short scalp on EURCAD and closed a few hours ago in Asia .
Well done ?
I still like it, but don’t want to go into ECB too loaded with short EUR’s
I’m having trouble taking a view on cable now after the stonkin’ short taken
Holding short — USDCAD EURAUD – part footsie UK100 ( from yesterday ).and seeking to add back.
Long NZDUSD. … Still holding on to a short EURNZD . It was just a small feeler intro and is slightly out the money at time of writing . i will have to make the decision whether to hold or fold the EUR trades before ECB – .I may hold and try to add at higher levels .
Just a note: Every retail trader&their grandma are shorting euro ? Be careful and creative.. FYI: bullish on cad?
That is a very good observation Jimbo .
I also like going against the retail stats — All in the hands of the silver tongued one today
Point taken Jimbo. I have never understood why “retail” gets so much attention. If anyone can stay in the game and make a living out of this thing. What does that make them? Just adding a little something to the “retail” conversation and bucking the industry snobbery a little. 😉 What says you?
I say………
Oh feck .. You wasn’t asking me was you Si ?
That I’m proud to be a retail trader — yet statistics prove that retail are very often on the wrong side of things — So I’m with Jimbo in general . Doesn’t mean I’m looking for EUR strength today, as this is a special day for EUR .
Well I haven`t seen those stats Dubs and so I wouldn`t know about that mate.
You should get out more ?
Hahaha…All I know is that bank traders lose at times, hedge-fund traders lose at times, algos can lose at times. Traders new to this game can lose at times, as can many others from both sides of the fence.
I seldomly notice you and some other so-called retail traders wrong-side of the market. I see people making money. So why the retail thing? I always ask myself. I just don`t get that, that`s all and it feeds into the industry snobbery. and the seemingly mystery in how to trade markets. Not labelling you a snob here. Or Jimbo. Keeping the conversation going 😉
Market Maker:) just sayin’ in “retail”‘s case.
It’s true on the buy-side of the market all lose at times, but maybe not as often as the average joe(insert–industry snobbery here:) Also i will not go into the statistics to prove a point?
On a side note:As far as Sell side(Dealer)’s concerned _Regardless of Whether it’s asset manager/institutional investors or leveraged funds..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RXJj2e0li8
Well said JZ
a bloodbath awaits for the long capitulation that is going ..now it is the right time for mario to use the presser to prevent the headwinds coming from a higher euro ….. trust the usd flows
Yes Harry. Traders should think twice about standing in front of the train
I thought I recognized the ‘ Doom of Valyria ‘ ref Harry ?
i just had to look it up to make sure . Welcome to the ‘ breaker of chains ‘ site Sir .
With many Dragons :))
loll yesterday told gerry davies i have biggg respect for you guys … you ryan and the guys as well the other page so here i am
Gerry’s one of the best market minds out there , especially on the cable.
A big influence and mentor to me back in the day when I started out .
Unfortunately I cannot access Twitter from behind the ‘Great firewall’.
Give him my luv’s next time you speak …He knows me as Dubsy .
Don’t talk about Arsenal FC or Peroni beer — or you will be best mates forever ?
yes he is one of a kind .. btw i like to feud with him when he is pissed so many funny things comes out … yes he and mighty mike paterson had a big influence on me
Hahaaa ;)))
Harry, do you think we could get Mike on here, would be some team then.
hope so
Hi Harry. Good to see you. Gerry’s a good egg and it’s great to still have him on the airwaves.
thank you ryan good to be here as well ..
Morning folks. I have loaded up short EURUSD 1.21841 and have tickled Cable with another short into 1.3946.
Looking around for victims. Very slack day for this boy yesterday. I want some beans 😉
Cable has been waiting on UK GDP`s for the last couple of days. GDP`s tomorrow, so today is the day to get that sub-1.39 print done.
Shaved that bit off EURUSD just to get one in the locker. 21679 from 21841
Keeping Cable for now. I think we go chopping wood to sub-39
Good morning , Any one for a game of Mario Bros 😉
-Short EURUSD, scaled bck some ahead of ECB, any rebound should be capped in the 1.2235/45 , give and take an extra few points for the algo’s and panic , where I look to re-instate the rest.
– Long USDJPY , range trading it gradually up into month end , expecting 109.10-70 ish range today with the BOJ joker card in between.
-Bought smalls EURGBP, planning to keep it for Buba time unless Silver Tongue spoils the day completely. 0.8726= 38.2% of last week’s rally, which held nicely. Taking that as a gauge for the viability post ECB
-Bought back that EURCAD last night when Freelander started to talk about the Nafta Sunset close , which is one of the tricky points but looking to reload on any 30/50p uptick or a break sub 1.5585
Algo’s will be hanging on Mario’s lips again as usual but I’m not expecting much if anything from today’s meeting.
Good morning traders.
I’m sticking to my NZDUSD plan and I’ll chuck in here what I’ve just replied on H’s NZDUSD post on the home page;
I’m bid a bit a 55 but I’ve been thinking that this 60 area is looking strong for support since we came here. That either means we bounce or we see another hefty break lower. Decisions decisions. Buy here or hold off to see if we do get a break and I’ll buy at my next level at 35?
As for the euro, I see another can-kicking session coming so I’m not expecting any major moves. However, our job is to look for where the risks are so the big price risk is if we do get something. There’s also a whopping great 5bn expiry at 1.2200, which may well come into play after. More on that later.
Looking to see IF this Euro move can sustain the break. Might go again for the downside.
Cable sub`d the 39 handle as per my thoughts. Done for a very nice chunk. see if Betty lifts that skirt right up to give us some more down-side
ill think of going small long at 1.3820 area scaling to 1.3680 .. but now selling rallies as flows going usd way
Sounds like a plan Harry. I still err the downside. Sellers have printed their sub-39. They have wanted that for a few days now. Buyers held them off. Which side can force the issue? Are buyers now ready to consolidate this level and then rally nervously into GDP`s tomorrow? It remains a Dollar story, so we cannot know.. Trade what we see.
most important data on gbp are services and wages and both are a drag reduced hopes on brexit i see hesitation for buyers to jump in bigly … yes trade what we see iam with you that one .. ps : i think the dovish comments of carney gave him room to hike later
Gotcha
With you there Harry, hike still coming.He’s buying easy time re Brexit, always a good tree to hide behind in the meantime.
Welcome btw
lolll .. thank you kman .. i didnt say it is.. i said it is carney style to be sneaky
beware. cable historically does not fall for 8-9 days in a row as it is doing now. a tweet from trump and it can be bad for dollar.
Thinking on that as well N. All possibilities. Nimble is the word we use so often on here. You have to be nimble mate.
In our room folks, we have been showing folks how to follow the USD story that has been so prevailant for weeks and months and so consistently a Dollar story. It`s not rocket science, There are no mysteries in this game. Follow DXY and yields. Tech `em up if you like but follow while this story continues. Make hay.
Just a note for those who have not been in the room.
Si, by saying in our room, do you mean, on forexflow ? Thank you
Yes Conor. Forexflow generally mate. Ask Ryan for any other details about the site and welcome.
Hi Conor.
As well as the site we have a live trading room. You can get a free two week trial here https://mrtopstep.com/forex-flow/
Alongside all the trade chat we have in the room, you also get access to Livesquawk’s dedicated FX news service.
Thank you Ryan, much appreciated.
Ok, here’s a cert for you. After watching 1.20 in EURCHF get rejected repeatedly, and me failing to short it, I’m now going to stick a small short in at 1.1990 or 95 if I can get it. Guaranteed it will break as soon as I’m in ?
I’ll only go a small trade and I’m still running a buy stop at 1.2010.
I luv’s it when you get down and dirty boss ?
Great thinking – Very sneaky with minimal loss if it goes tits .
Guess there’s a few who sell into/at 1.20, I don’t expect Jordan to aim for much higher either. As I said before I think we calm down and range trade it from here. I did first time round. But the longer it hangs around here, the bigger the risk to many will run short and we get the last spike up, where I’ll be looking to get really short. In the meantime I have a string feeling USDCHF will see parity soon. A tad surprised there’s nothing on the option board at that lvl.
Do you reckon that small 1pp drop in the SNB’s EUR holdings in Q1 is down to them being on the offer as it’s gone up? That data won’t include this April action obviously, and I don’t know how much that 1 percentage point drop is in real money.
That bit is probably diversification in Q1 looking at the timing.
It’s possible they gave some liquidity to the Russian buyers in direct without showing the market their hand this month. We’ll only see the result in a few months unfortunately.
https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/foreign-exchange-reserves
There you go .Total reserves still on the rise in March
Thanks again.
Good stuff, thanks K.
On my long USD trades: took one more off EURUSD, still holding partial GBPUSD and USDJPY. New trades: Just entered small long NZDUSD and will buy more at 0.703(0.618Fib of 2017/Nov Low to 2018/Feb high) with tight stops, I’m also planning to fade EURNZD again, 10-day consecutive up, humm, last time it had this move was in Nov 2011, followed with a 10-day consecutive down, Draghi, it is your time to make it happen again:-)
Great stuff CW
OMG, not you too Chen! I’m never going to get my 0.7055 filled at this rate. That’s 3 people now buying here. ?
Plus all those who read, go and not telling you, that’s a few yardsss in front of you , good luck ?
I might join you yet Ryan. I`m very tempted.
Don’t you jump in front of me too ?
LoL, I just didn’t want to miss the train seeing H leaving alone:-)
Horatios’s stops are controlled after a skilled entry :))
He will live again to chuckle at you lower deck laggards
😀
kiwi is a buy at 6760. just saying
eurgbp is still weak. so no point in shorting gbp at this price. maybe if it breaks 1.3890 will short for few
Don’t forget to keep posting here guys . Things are going to go a tad quiet in this session pre Draghi
We really appreciate your thinking around this time
?
expecting a hawkish dragass
Thank you so very much guys for your super posts today
Getting late for me – yet WOW !…….what a great earning day
Keep stickin’ ’em here ?