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Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
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good morning all
expecting a massive move on eu down in the coming days :)..lol new Italian government expecting ecb to forgive 250 billion debt the question is : which parallel currency will be using or we are coming back to trade the lira and mark
ps : don’t feel bullish if rallied unless your smoking Lebanese weed lay down boy and wait for the feeling to pass
buy dx dips playing the range 93-95 extension 98
gbp rinse and repeat …playing the range : 1.3612-1.3480-60 .. if the downside break we going to 1.33
buy uj dips target 112.30 key level 110.80
have a nice day
Ahoy hoy Harry.
Yes indeed… No signs of a let up in this move so far.. FYI there are rumours of a barrier/s in USDJPY
at 110.50 . It will be interesting to see if they cause any hiccups today .
1.33?? interesting. I am not expecting any massive moves in GBP now after yesterday’s move. topside i expect 3550 max and downside 3440 if we breach 3470
if 13480-60 region broken selling will ramp up the measured move of this break is 1.3040….till now it is rinse and repeat till it breaks
pls make a note that gbp has fallen 930 pip after yesterday’s low of 3450. so it is expectation of bad data even further going and yesterday’s employment data was not bad. market is all jacked up on the dollar trade and will be caught wrong footed soon as always
i did take note i got all these pips and this range above i played 4 times but something gotta give eventually .. my view on dollar differs from yours … gbp holding at these levels because the takeda deal and bids on gbpjpy
I dont use 15m charts . I noticed this from my H1.
Thinking the latest rhetoric from NK could cause a wobble at the open . Holding short from 110.32 with a stop
set a few pips above entry – I’m finding it difficult to get bearish with the USD rampant .
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a8f0dde1efb807aa6f2d28e84edfc01cf463a05956156883edc75095a833fb2a.png
i’m mainly mid to long term trader. currently building longs in NJ. also will build longs gold below 1270ish. will short spx if opportunity comes and buy nifty50
lately i sold xauusd 1322 yes ill build longs around 1260-1250 level
good morning!
Yesterday the EUR shorts worked very well, closed all my EUR position with nice profit. Now remained with short USDCAD and long AUDUSD. Looking to buy GBPUUSD around 3470 and sell EURUSD after the break of 1800-20
Well done Gabs .
Super stuff mate ? Ryan called that EURUSD superbly in the room .
Well traded Gabs
if this is start of risk off we are repeating aug 2015 and feb 2016 where euro and gbp were marked higher and all commodity currencies lower
Just an aside……For anyone who uses, or is thinking of using Ichimoku – Always watch out for cloud set ups like this one yesterday . Best viewed and used on H4 + .. My best pipper of the day with a 1/2 trade still open https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b13864255fef72d68158ef8077d6a06ef0f23fb552bff03be38c36d653a3563f.png
Morning, I was wondering if i could ask for help. Here I am sat here having an understanding of why the markets have moved of late across the majors, but i find myself completely flat. I’m at a bit of a loss now of how to translate my ideas in to executable trades, any rough suggestions on how to approach this would be much appreciated. Though i understand you can’t just copy others or have your hand held so to speak,and it has to be your own style in this game.
Welcome Jack.
You nailed it with your last sentence . We all have to develop our own style. It is always going to take time and a lot of patience . There are shortcuts – No harm in watching other traders who post their trades and thinking. Firstly decide whether you want to be in the markets short/medium / or long term .. a very good place to start . Keep things as simple as possible is always my advice. Never worry about missing out and failing to execute trades . I’m sure this happens to all of us every day. Let the trades come to you and never chase them. — I missed out on a lot of this latest USD strength , and I sit here watching charts for much of the day.:)
Thank you, I’ll start by keeping an eye on what others are doing or rather their approaches. Plus if i am honest I’m a little less worried now about sitting on the side lines as reading posts makes it seem to me that everybody is always in and always winning, where you don’t tend to actually have real contact with other traders but your last sentence has put me at ease haha. Thanks again for the advice much appreciated. 🙂
“makes it seem to me that everybody is always in and always winning”
I wish that were true about always winning Jack. If that’s one thing we all make sure about, it’s that you get to hear when trades don’t work out and we lose.
There’s many different trading styles here so it can be confusing if you’re trying to follow but if there’s one thing that we all do exactly the same, it’s how we approach risk and trade & money management. There’s no ‘trade first, sort a plan out after’, we all have a plan before a button is pushed on a trade. Nail that part and finding your own style is simple.
In our trading room, we help many traders with similar dilemmas .
Many of the guys you see posting here are members and all the mods ….We’re not shy about holding peoples hands- … In a manly way of course ?
Hi Jack.
Just to echo H, simple is best.
It all depends on what time frames you are using, what technical indicators you’re using as that can define how you trade. The simplicity is that if you identify a level, the important part is how you trade it.
If you have an understanding why the market is moving, that tells you the bias for a pair (up or down). I.e if you want to go long EUR right now, you know longs are the riskier trade so maybe you keep your trade smaller and with tighter stops. Shorts you can give a bit more room to.
At the end of the day, irrespective of what’s going on or what the trends are, a price will either hold a level or it won’t, and so you only have to decide how you want to trade it and what risk you want to put on it.
To summarise,
Use your understanding of why the market has/is moving to pick your preferred trading direction.
Identify the levels you’d be happy to trade at, and where you decide you’re wrong.
If those levels aren’t close to the market then have patience and trade them when the market moves there (while judging the reason why the market is going there).
Trade your levels and control the trade so you have your stop and exit strategies planned before you enter.
Lastly, please carry on asking any questions you want. We’re here to help.
Wow I must say the advice ive got from this already is well beyond anything I’d imagine so thank you all :).
And now thinking about it there was a patch through April where i traded levels but forgot about the reasons why which ended badly and lots of trades to just be in but i was on small size so money wise no pain really. Plus i tend to find myself as you said in with no plan on how i was going to get out or i decide the stop and target once in in a very reactionary way rather than thinking ahead.
So i will focus now on planning and execution first as i think tbh this is where my true issues are. Plan the trades in technical terms as well as the reasons behind the direction using small positions to start with. *gives thumbs up* Thanks again!
Thank you for that great advice Ryan and Si.Can I ask a question.
Is this a reasonable approach to trading ?
I trade relatively short term. I only trade what I see, using Hourly charts to enter when there is strong movement either way, I use only technical, support and resistance found from monthly, weekly, daily and hourly charts plus 50 ma 100ma and 200ma for guidance. Also I take a lot of advice from the very helpful and smart Harry
For example I shorted EUR/USD an hour ago because the directional bias in the last few days is down, the hourly candles confirmed down and Harry thinks we are going to 1.15, who I respect a lot.
Any advice / opinion, anything right or wrong here, thank you very much.
Hi Conor
It sounds like you have a great grasp on things already. You’re checking multiple time frames (we love to find confluences of tech from multiple time frames), and as long as you plan your exits as well as you entries, you should be ok.
Harry has got into a fantastic trade and trend and I hope he hits all his targets. However, I’ve told him (on twitter) that I’m going to be his conscience and I’m going to question him all the way down as over confidence can be our undoing.
When I ran my EU longs for over a year, I was not focused on profits targets, only the next level that stood in my way, as right then, that was the risk to my trade. I couldn’t think about 1.10 when there was a big level at 1.08 to deal with, I could think about 1.25 when 1.20 was a big level to think about, you get the picture.
Different traders play things different ways so it’s up to the individual to protect their money, protect their risk and their profits however they see fit.
Super Ryan tyvm,
one last question
How do you plan your exits ?
My main planing is where my stop goes.
It also depends on my strategy at the time. For example, if I’m taking long-term trades then I look to take some profits if I see levels in my way holding, then I might reload on a pull back.
Short-term trading, like I’ve done just now with EURUSD and EURCHF, I just define what risk I want and put a stop accordingly. If there’s a tech level to lean on (like in the EURCHF chart I posted) then I’ll put a stop just above/below depending on which way it’s going. I never put stops/entries right on tech levels, always in front of behind by a few pips. For stops, that might mean the tech level keeps you in the trade.
Super advice ty, on a side issue, why were people concerned about barrier options this morning in relation to eur/usd
They can be a big line of defence of a level, depending on how big they are. Think of it like another brick in the walls that are often built around big figs. The more bricks, the stronger the wall. Here’s a post on the options you might like https://www.forexflow.live/2017/09/06/options/an-explanation-of-forex-options-and-their-impact-on-currency-markets/
Brilliant ty, can they also be a sell, i.e. not a brick
Barriers can be above or below the market so yes, we can see sell interest on ones above, just the same as buy interest on ones below.
Ok got it now, ty
Ryan, so the barrier option at 1.1800 on EUR/USD today is now dead, as it has been passed ?
That’s right Conor. Once they’re hit they’re toast and the seller (writer) collects the premium.
Ist bit of the plan to decide your exit, is “don`t be a hero, don`t be greedy” be happy with a good risk/reward ratio profit and remember at all times…”there is never a bad time to take a profit and care less where it goes once you are out. There are no shoulda, coulda, woulda`s in this game. You`ve made where many lose. That`s an achievement in itself. Actual exit? You trade supp n res. Pick your poison but keep it your definition of reallistic. Avoid the greedy stuff as you will find over a period of time that you will likely give perfectly good profit away going for the big prize.
Si, thank you, your posts and advice are top drawer, very helpful and balanced.
Do you use pivot points ?
I do use them Conor and they have been gold for me for most of 2018, but things change from time to time and when they do change, you have to be ruthless and chuck the old way(s) out and settle into a new strategy as the market structure changes. For the time-being in these markets, they are still working.
Si on what time frame do you use them or which time frame works best with them ? TIA
I look at the long-term frames mostly C. I use the 15 minute to trigger most trades though and look at the daily and 4hr to settle where I might get out. Switch to the 15 minute to hit the button in case price doesn`t quite hit my TP. Then I care less mate.
I will try that method ty
You have to consider though, that pivots values are different on the daily, weekly and monthly to pivots on 4hr and below right down to the 1 minute. I take no notice at all of the pivots on Daily, weekly or monthly charts. I learned not to even calculate those as they have a very low strike rate if that makes sense
So hourly and 15 mins charts have some merit for Pivot Points
Yes, 4hr, 1hr, 30 mins, 15 and 5
Warning stupid question coming, I have a pivot point at 1.1777 on all those charts on eur/usd, I presume this is support
If price is above that level then yes, support as a general rule. If below, then it can act as resistance.
Hello Jack. If you are trading your own money and if as you say, you have an understanding of why and how the markets have moved recently. My best advice is wind down your position sizes, right down and dip your toes in such a way that any mistakes will not necessarily hurt your account. We do this at times when we`re off form but still believe we are trading what we see and feel. Perhaps try that mate and let us know how you got on later. get a mojo running and then jack your position sizes up comfortably in-line with your account size. If you want more confidential advice in relation to your account size and management, just ask Ryan and he will set you straight there.
Sounds like you have the ideas but perhaps reluctant to dip your toes fully and feel you`re missing out?
We all get that from time to time mate.
Si and his mojo ? lol
He keeps me laughing throughout the long days
Hey, having a mojo still at his age is no mean feat 😉
The only mojo you need is in how you lift that arm to take the next swig 🙂
Yeah i think that’s right, i question whether my direction from the information is right hesitate on a level then feel I’m missing out. so i will go for the smallest position i can get away with and actually try some of my plans out, sitting about when an opportunity is there may not be the best way to learn. and thanks again for the help 🙂
Another secret is don`t get greedy by increasing your position sizes off the back of a few winners. Get some consistency going and then consider raising your position sizes one notch at a time. ease yourself into it
Right having got myself focused i now have more of a plan for the rest of the week (bar Friday as I’m off out sailing). i was looking for 1.19 in EURUSD short but well that never happend and i wasn’t chasing, may look for a small short position back into 1.1850. My next shorts I’ve planned are in NZDUSD (0.6950) and NZDCAD (0.8900) as personally i am more in the long camp with CAD hence the fourth pick of GBPCAD (1.7400) sell. GBP is a bit mixed overall in my head at the moment given a mixed bag from BOE and data so may skip this one or use lower risk tighter stop. Obviously this will change if we are driven back to these prices by a fundamental shift, but small size as suggested planning on giving it a go, stops also planned beforehand beyond the next resistances. However they turn out on small size I’m bound to learn something haha, cheers again for the help this morning guys 🙂
Sounds like a plan there Jack. See how it goes and good luck
Morning Pip Pickers
Signs of a bottom in place in EURUSD, temp or otherwise. Got to respect the PA and that low 1.18’s held again even over the latest Italian rumours (which have mostly been quashed since). The 1.1870 area I highlighted on the chart yesterday saw the dead cat bounce top and that will be a consideration again. It’s only a minor level so don’t hang your hat on it. 1.1900/10 will be the bigger test.
USDJPY has a decision to make about 110.00. I’m still favouring adding back in the bit I sold yesterday near there but I’ll be keeping it tight, probably with a stop just under 109.90. There’s a barrier at 110.50 but some hefty stops lurking there too.
Some of the other folks here are eyeing up EURCHF and the 1.1800 lows were a strong level on the way up if I recall correctly, so will be looking over the charts for that one.
Have a great day all.
Morning folks. Quite a hectic day yesterday. Longed Cable off the 50 fib I mentioned1.34638 on a pending order and took 35236 as the move exhausted against the NK news. Took the long in Guppy 148.463 and took 149.126 on the same squeek that HK were actually suspending talks. I am looking at those 2 still. With very little on the UK docket this week, we`re looking at the DXY and yield divergences with UK 10`s, JGB 10`s and US 10`s the flavour. Cashed all 4 of my CADYENS for a combined whacking great chunk, all of which has made my weekly target already and being “out of nick” as I call it last week, I took another long there 85.431 out of the dip and will hold that for now. Stop to B/Even .
I am going to be patient and keep what I have without diving into things trying to chase the nose bag.
Still holding WTI CFD and 3 bits of stop monies to retrieve. I`ll be scalping those back and keep the faith for now in the black gold despite all the half-arsed analysis flying around about shale supply etc, etc, so if you`re in Oil, think twice about giving into the current analysis flying around sayingoil has had it`s day in the sun.
Happy hunting folks.
The big events today are EUR CPI`s top of the hour, Draghi mid-day and a slew of 2nd tier stuff from Uncle Sam, together with Inventories in Oil.
In markets like these, pick your fights carefully trading what you see only.
you all were so bullish on the GBP yesterday same time around and even asked me to reconsider my position. I was dead sure that it will fall because like i said every tom dick and harry was getting long here. GBP further journey will depend on the euro and if euro rallies gbp will no matter how good or bad the data
I wasn`t particularly bullish GBP N. In fact, i was neutral the pair watching DXY, UK prints and yield divergences together with the fib in Cable mentioned. I simply stuck my money where my mouth was. It paid off handsomely. Doesn`t always happen exactly like that mate as you already know.
One feature of markets is tops and bottoms. Another is this extraordinary desire instilled in many traders to just do the exact opposite to what the crowd is doing or likely to do. This is an age old phalacy created by so-called guru`s who only want to seel you mysteries and ideas that make them money. Chuck all that out I say. Get rid and just trade what you see. Cable and the Euro will go where the crowd say it goes and not where you and I want it to go.
And we were all bearish EUR while you were longing it Nach 😉
I am still long euro 🙂 I have no regrets of being long on the euro.
Good morning gentle people,
Still holding same as on my late night update on the live blog (home tab): Short EUR basically for various reasons depending on the 2nd currency of the pair. EUR as such not only due to the Italian govt situation but it was already the weak link vs USD before that came out.
-Short 1/4 EURUSD on strong USD and int rates diff: 1.1800 or 1.1880 will decide upon that one now. Tightened up the topside as vs other currencies the USD shows signs of tiring a bit.
-Short EURJPY, read why here https://www.forexflow.live/2018/05/15/news/short-eurjpy-looking-better-by-the-hour/ . Stop will be above 131
-Short 1/3 EURNOK , will be patient with this one
-Short 1/2 EURCAD , nicely back in the money . Will be taking slices off from 1.5185 downwards, stop down to 1.5285
Sliced some here on EURCAD @ 1.5192 and EURJPY @ 130.12