Here are today’s Trading views and Ideas for the day ahead.
Let us know what you are looking at – Charts – Trade chatter – Trade positions.
The Flow traders are available throughout the day to help out with your questions – Share trade set-ups and keep you updated on positions. — Participate in the comments and help make this new daily feature a one stop companion to your trading sessions.
Tuesday — After today even the calendar goes W T F
Join our live trading room for many more trades and Ideas
Latest posts by Horatio Dubsly (see all)
- Silver – This weeks shining star, as predicted by ForexFlow - July 19, 2019
- 新年快乐 财源滚滚 大吉大利 A Happy wealthy healthy New Year to all our Chinese friends - February 4, 2019
- Gold and Silver – Glittering prizes? - January 28, 2019
The EURAUD trade from yesterday’s ‘Go with the Flow’ is isn’t hanging around ? +100 pips up
No harm in taking some profits on the way if you wish to bank some. You can always add back..
A move below 1.5500 and there seems to be nothing in the way until the 1.5380 area.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95ed700ea40cf31316c03b670e78692f927d5f56a6cab4030642ae571bf3bd10.png
Yeah, this thing was rolling too quick, yesterday after I entered EURNZD short and then opened EURAUD to do the same only saw the train left already… currently I’m looking to buy USDJPY dip as I don’t want to miss USD strength if it comes back today.
Indeed Chen.. Those EUR and GBP crosses dont hang around once they get going 😉
Very difficult to have the confidence to jump on the train once it has left the station for fear of being too late . The USDJPY seems well supported, agree .
morning all
my ideas still the same ..but i have one question couldn’t find answer
till now : why buba wait till end month to execute while he have all
month ?
Hi Harry, hope you’re doing well.
Waiting for payday, the contributions to arrive before executing the exchange into €.
I haven’t been in the loop past 2 years but they seem to have started to spread these purchases out a little but have no details.
thank you kman yes doing pretty well you all know my trades …appreciate the answer
Good morning, no major data out of the US, I reckon we continue a range for the buck.
It’s GBP day today with half the BOE taking the mic: Vlieghe, Carney, Saunders, Ramsden testifying in parliament at the Inflation report hearings.
-Short EURUSD, I am jobbing parts around in the 1.1725-1.18 range as per yesterday. started this mrng with a small purchase at 60.
-Long USDJPY, same here trading around a base long into the 112 objective.
-Long tad AUDNZD, may not keep that for to long, the negative NZD bias has faded rapidly yesterday.
-Short tad EURSEK, will be observing a 10.15-25 oco buy order on that one.
That was pretty quick , resold at 1.1795 to continue the exercise.
Sek employment data out in the meantime, headline number a bit weaker but the trend unemployment continues to decline. Very limited impact on the cross
i thought cable would make another leg to 1.3400. but it didnt during the open, i dont have any position now
Been jobbing a fair bit and just looking at swing lvls and fib : 1.1820/25 is a resistance area on the EURUSD so I’m moving my stop up 15 p to 1.1830.
I jumped the gun early and bought the EURUSD back @ 1.1824 as the China news planning to cut car import duties to 15% is monster news for risk and the likes of BMW and AUDI, I’m long USDJPY and long EURJPY now
The major cities are the market of imported car in China, the big problem there of having a car is that most of those cities are restricting the increase of new car each year, and the local brands are much cheaper which occupied most areas that don’t limit the number of car increase. Anyway, Trump did something good to EU it seems:-)
Thanks vm Chen Wu for the insight
Morning Tick Tacklers
Bit of non-event for me yesterday. Nothing really grabbed my attention and I didn’t get a look in on my EURUSD bid down at 1.1710. EURUSD is finally looking like it wants to retrace just as we break 1.1800. 1.1820/25 is the next technical target. So far (today and yesterday) this is the biggest bounce we’ve seen which suggests a temp bottom is in place. I still think we’re at the mercy of the flows and are following rather than leading so use the EM’s as your proxy.
When we see moves that seem strong and one way, I’m always on the look out for a snap back. The further and faster we move in one direction, the more violent and quick a retrace can be. It doesn’t mean the trend is over but it can mean that this part of it is. If you want to fight a reversal in EURUSD, go ahead but be mindful of what the market is doing. Shorts had it all their own way last week and buyers look stronger this. Shorts can re-enter but will to keep trades tighter in case there’s more to this.
For me, the resistance points in place since the drop from 1.20 may not be overly strong so I’ll treat them as such. I’ll be a stronger seller into 1.20 again.
Good luck all.
why didn’t you said the same when euro was at 1.18 and sharply rallied to 1.20. then to rally back to 1.24 before giving back 700 pips. the fact is people have shorted the euro so much in past 5 weeks that this move would have come in any case
You tell me Nachiket. What’s the difference and drivers in the markets between then and now?
You say “this move would have come in any case” but that’s a pretty open comment. Why has it happened now?
I’ve added back to EURAUD here at 1.5553 after taking part position off for +100
you have shorted right at support/resistance. just because it worked last time doesn’t mean it will work again. good luck.
Go tell the guy who didn’t bank +100 pips from yesterday 😉
uh, it was me, I also forgot to bank the pips of the short from 1.6, and it is 425 pips now:-p
Quick one for you ahead of Carney at 8.15 GMT
We’re seeing the pound rally and if Carney & Co say something that sinks the quid. I’m going to look at that dip to buy. It will depend on how strong any chatter is but if it’s mildly bearish then I don;t think it will change the intraday trend were seeing so could be a good fade.
Morning folks. Still long WTI`s and this correction in USD is doing them no harm.
Pretty much risk on and as K says, the news that China is relaxing controls and tarrifs on cars is bigger news than many might think. Where does China`s determination to relax on imports end?
Some of the futures markets show a turn here. Most notably for GBP with futures showing bets are building for a recovery of sorts with open interest rising from Friday`s CFTC print and with volumes following suit, indicating that the big fig-bust yesterday through 1.34 is perhaps a very short-term bottom ahead of a big week for the GBP. s Ryan points out in his post, the BoE speaks this morning. Then CPI`s tomorrow with Retails abd GDP`s this week as well. For a data dependent GBP/BoE, a very big week altogether.
The Fut`s market for the Euro paints a similar picture. Open interest up and in-line with increased vol`s after spot hit December`s lows 1.1710/20 area.
All-in-all bullish signals for both currencies.
DXY suffered the biog-fig drop as well and as reported in our romm on numerous occasions, there has been much talk that 3% in US 10`s yields was already written in causing a disconnect of sorts between the DXY driver, yields. Recognised by regular and respected reader at FFL, Luke, seeing the divergence put him into Silver and Gold trades.
Apart from WTI`s, but am watching DXY closely for a possible CFD either way. Shaping up nicely.
Good luck folks and watcha. This lot could go either way and sharply from here.
thank you K Man for your accurate reading of the euro yesterday
Afternoon again first of all my NZDUSD idea from yesterday ended with a small loss but good in the fact i manged my risk better once the level failed rather than having a massive stop in the hope of a reversal, and i am now waiting for some clearer conditions with better data driven days ahead imo.
However as always i have a question haha, in terms of the upcoming data say tomorrows CPI for the UK what is the best way to approach such a release. I think i am right in saying in some cases you can keep buying or selling into the event when there is a clear sentient and the expectations for the data match this. However when there isn’t and i trade after the release too many times i find myself jumping in on the release when the spreads are wider and then the stop loss placement is huge and the TP is worked out second once in (not good). I was just wondering how i could more ‘professionally’ and carefully trade out of the news release to one reduce my risk and two not be in at the extreme due to the spread blowing out on the release. Thanks.
hello Jack. Have you given up on that trade then? It still looks to be turning down having spiked to a 69736 high and forming 2 fairly good shoulders in the 69570/80 area, so that area defines things intrady for now. It has to break above there convincingly to avoid any extent of a further drop. Look at the 30 minute chart to see the peak, left shoulder and right shoulder forming. The peak was made through profit taking in USD longs. USD is rallying again for now 93.56 from a 93.30 low and up on the day so far. US 1o`s are doing a tepid rally, staying above 3%.
On GBP, personally, I will wait for CPI`s tomorrow and then make a decision. IF they come out ahead of expectations, GBP should rally ahead of other important prints this week, retails Thursday, culminating in GDP`s Friday. If that lot imply improvements and the UK keeps it`s Brexit nose clean somehow, GBP should rally some. Misses to expectations and it will be sold for the lows again.
I will chance my arm on a beat or miss on expectations in CPI`s, however, I won`t be betting the farm on it. remember one thing: Headline numbers can be misleading and so often best to wait for Mr Market to read the report. On a beat, wait for a dip to buy into once market has read the report. On a miss, it might be more straight forward but all the same, sell a rally.
BoE governor Carney speaks again this week, so beware of that. Big week one way or another for GBP because however these numbers come out: Above expectations brings an August hike back into some exoectations….below expectations, takes august off the table for now and challenges a fresh low to be put in place as low as 1.32 perhaps.
In terms of the NZD trade i think it may be somewhat a mindset thing as i lost and then immediately abandoned the idea although all my reasons why i sold hadn’t changed.
I can see now how it may be better to wait for a dip or rally than having a stab at the release, plus it is all about what it will effect in the future i.e. a BOE hike in August which personally i think is a crazy idea. Thanks
Hi Jack.
Take this from someone who used to be able to trade econ data the split second it came out because I was competing with other humans and not machines. It’s virtually impossible to grab a trade on the release because we’re out the game in terms of reaction compared to the algos. Therefore you have to be smart about it. Unless you have a longer-term trade in play, taking a position before data is just nothing more than a lottery.
The best way to play data is to first define how important it is, and then pick your trade for whatever the outcome is. Some data can be trend changing, some data can just kick an intraday move out of sync.
CPI is a potential biggie so what do we know?
1. We know expectations are now all about an August hike.
2. We know CPI was softer last month helping wipe May hike expectations
3. We know the pound is being pulled on more than just UK fundamentals
How do we trade it? Check your charts and identify your levels. I look at levels that may hold a big move for a fade trade, or I look to trade breaks of big levels after I’ve noted all the data.
In either case I’ll be trading after the news has hit and I’ve had time to assess what it all means. After that point you can plan a trade.
Ah i see like you mentioned the other day it’s all in the planning! An example quickly in my mind is if we got a larger miss say 1.9% expecting 2.2% i can see 1.34 has held up so far quite well a miss like that then i could look for a break there and possibly a move to the next technical level below and the key being that if i am right in the idea price shouldn’t really be able to make a convincing run back above 1.34 and there’s your stop location sorted. That’s obviously in a completely black and white world where everything works haha.
Main points: – expectations of what the data means for the future.
– asses data to allow planning of a trade than being completely reactionary.
Cheers again to everyone great for some different perspectives other than my own here 🙂