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morning all
eur : technically speaking looking at weekly chart the 1.1550 area supported the break up in the last year ..digging into the daily chart the measured move for the break 1.1927 is 1.1293 area and here at this level where the uptrend looks compromised not the 1.1550 (for people waiting a reversal here hell no a limited bounce is all what you get )
as for today trade the selling continues staying below 1.1650 till 14 gmt and will have a pretty nice run lower ….remain for longer time in 1.1730 – 1.15 range and will have steep fall
politically speaking : italy new elections or matarella impeachment and in both euro skeptics will shine italexit is a matter of time
soon will hear from bavaria in medium term and this will be a surprise bigger than italy …
as for fundamentals don’t be mistaken ecb mandate is inflation and price stability not growth which is becoming unimpressive market want breathtaking .. higher oil prices are transitory factors on headline inflation a drag to growth …
remain dx dip buyer and 95 is a matter of time
looking carefully for long entry on xaueur and this will be the trade of the year ill update further in the coming days on my entries
Hi Harry, is always good to read your insights on EURUSD… what is the limited bounce of 1.1550 to your definition? and do you think it will reach 1.1470 before a more meaningful bounce will happen?
a bounce if happened will be like 85 pips … well i set my target since 1.25 at 1.12 area now my target became much lower i think there might be a good bounce but depends on the events still preliminary
ahh… and i was thinking it could have some correction back to 1.1900 from 1.1470 before resume downwards to 1.1200. So 1.1200 is after Fed’s June hike for you?
it is not called a correction to 1.19 it is a reversal and i see no reversals soon only limited upside.. if you read my posts on friday i said 1.1733 might be the top of the week
That would be a reversal… thanks for noting that Harry… and limited upside … thanks Harry… got it 🙂
much welcome and youll find veterans here to help you on the site they are pretty good
Thanks Harry… will pay attention … always thirsty for good advice from good advisers
Good morning,
The rotation from South into core(for the easiness of bond distinction) Europe continues and to a certain extend into US bonds as well, which is the pressure we see on US rates imo.
Still short EURUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY. I did slice back a bit more EURJPY here at 126.23 just a few second ago, aiming to resell close to or on the low 127 handle.
Smaller long USDCHF, expecting to see a supporting hand soon via the EURCHF, stop in place 0.9880, getting paid carry in the meantime. If risk would completely fall out of bed, USDJPY shorts will do well.
Stay safe, happy hunting
good morning,
As the EMU political uncertainty increased, EUR will hardly find a base at these level. Unfortunately I’m not in the train yet, but will jump in in any pullback around 1.1650-1.17 to ride down 100-150 pps.
Interesting will be the candian CB meeting tomorrow where no action is awaited. However CAD is fighting on weekly basis with 100WMA at 1.2978 and from upside is a trendline (from Jan 2016 at 1.4690 touching the high in May 2017 at 1.3793) approaching around 1.3060-70. I will sell USDCAD around these level if seen.
The AUDNZD chart posted yesterday hit its near term target.
I’m watching to reload short under 1.0890 for a breakdown towards 1.0810.
Price stopped bang on the 38.2% fib – So it will be interesting to see the reaction around the 1.0890 fib cluster short term. — Yesterdays chart with entry below
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1c772857b052f36586766f8292f3c24d2b00daa24b6807055ee79b17b7cd003c.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bb4b13d670b4d3af5933db0bb15fe7ef0e90a9ecc196b92a95a3cdaf5d2c3db3.png
I would also like to reload the short from 1.09ish, maybe tomorrow as Orr will show up after releasing RBNZ inflation report at 2300GMT.
Morning folks. Turmpoil in markets. Not my words. It`s platered all over the markets space. So beware.
Short CADYEN`s called in the room from 84.185. A full-size position and now looking for a breakdown of the 83.50handle thst opens up 83.15 onto the 4th April ,low of 82.550. I`m happy with just the one full-size for now.
Looking for 1.3150/1.32 in Cable as buying opportunities. Also watching Berlins into the BUBA month-end to see whether the Euro or the GBP get the heads up on that pair.
Happy hunting.
1.3206 last man standing. 1.3239 was imp level and that is gone
yes N. Things have deteriorated somewhat again in the last few minutes. 1.32 could give way very easily here, so I`ll see if we get the sniff of 3250 area. Not getting too excited either because my CADYEN`s are creaming serious money here on the break.
having said that this sell off is looking crazy now. we are going to have a bounce at some point specially in GBP
Perhaps
now every tom dick and harry wants to short the euro. this sort of scenario always scares me. euro has broken an imp level at 1.1576. so hard work is done and next level is 1.1536. we are roughly 850 pips down from april high
1.1540 and i get my 1000 pip trade 🙂 looking for moar i am always a rally seller nothing new
good luck. if 1.1676 followed by 1.1707 holds till US closing, I mean we have a closing above expect short squeeze as well. Also we have jobs data this week and that seems to have topped out
i am a long term trader buddy and i defined pretty much the ranges buddy
By any chance would the EURUSD will have a flash crash down to 1.1200 within this two days ;p its been a while since i have seen a flash crash…
Congrats!
thanks buddy
some of the euro crosses are struggling to go lower. just saying
Eur/Usd next support 11480, is that correct anybody, cannot find any other ?
bunch of supports lower : 1.1550 – 1.1523-1.1401 — 1.1293..1.1110..french election gap – parity
thank you Harry
well i warned previously on the other site about the massive sell .. been called a clown …lol now they hear harry name wiill get mad lol
Harry let it in one ear and out the other, you know your knowledge and skill and generosity is way above listening to clowns
If we break here, the next big area of support is the 50% fib around 1.1450 – with a few minors in-between.
Tyvm H, on what time frame are you using that Fib ?
The big one Coner — from Jan 2017 to the highs in Feb this year .
Hi Conor. I have the 50 fib of the 2017 rally at 1.1447 and if you look at the weekly chart, you’ll see the whole 1.1430/60 area has been a historical resistance area going back into 2015. We’ve also got the 200 and 100 WMA’s converging there too. Technically it looks sound but it’s all going to depend on the news/sentiment at the time, if we see it tested.
ty Ryan, much appreciated
Good morning traders.
Where to begin with this lot eh?
Italy is front and centre obviously as the market is pricing in an anti-EU sentiment from the leading parties. There’s a lot of harsh rhetoric coming out of Italy but a lot of it seems to be more bark than bite at the moment. That could mean two things.
1. We start to get some bite and the parties really start upping the anti-EU comments.
2. The parties come out and dismiss leaving chatter.
At the moment a lot of this seems to be mostly a constitutional fight as opposed to a manifesto fight but if it spreads in to a fight over party policies the market wasn’t aware of, things could get a lot worse.
For trading, I’m always loathed to chase a move and as these moves are picking up speed and becoming more volatile, so does the risk of retraces being equally volatile. I’m still in my tiny EURUSD short from 2 weeks ago so I’m happy to stick with that while it doesn’t want to take my trailing stop. The 1.1440/50 area is about the only place I’d look for reasons to go long.
Good luck and stay safe folks.
still short the pound and my target of 1.31 is looking good –
Looking very good Johnners.
Nicely played mate
Euro drops faster than Macron’s popularity and Rajoy’s credibility . Do you still remember this eurusd parity story ?
i think you are getting too excited now. surely it is in mess but parity is too much.
sir if italexit happens will reach it easily depends on it now
Wts Ur take on eurjpy harry
well my first target was 125 … still a sell on rally for me
Target 122?
lower
Do you think still 125.5 good levels to short eurjpy
sorry buddy cant advice you in this my trading style differs than yours but the nearest short i have 126.52
Well that’s a way to start the morning. My chasing issues got the better of me and I grabbed a small handful out of the bottom of GBPJPY fall but closed relatively quickly as i saw the next S/R into 143.000. Now looking to be more patient sell bias still in EURUSD into 1.16 also EURJPY 126.500 and GBPJPY again but back at 145.00 if we get there.
Well grabbed Jack
Thank’s Si 🙂 , wasn’t much but better than nothing plus the risk was done correctly in £ terms rather than pips as discussed Friday i think it was, meaning if I’d missed a chance to hop out before this little pull back I’d be quite happy to sit it out and possibly add more as the risk was small.
Shorted USDTRY 4.625 with target around 4.580
Nice trade Marek. It’s off to a great start.
Thanks Ryan, it’s developing nicely so far.
4.580 was an important level in May.
Boom, nearly there.
Are you TP’s just ahead of 4.58 on right on it?
Just closed 4.590 when the drop began to stall. 90 mins trade, must say didnt expect it to be so quick
My original target was 4.5840, which is now also history
Did you get 58’s as I see a print down there?
Low point I can see is 4.5810
I closed bit too early
I think you closed it just right Marek. I always give myself some room above/below the levels I’m looking at because you can often see them protected just ahead of the number, like we’ve just seen with 5810 printing ahead of 5800. Getting 5840 is a great exit, especially now it’s trading back to 4.5962 😉
Don’t worry about missing the 30 pips, it was a great trade, on to the next one.
shorting jpy.nok from 0,0763 and chf.nok from 8,33 after the norwegian krone got beaten pretty bad today..(almost 2% down to the yen) Thinking that todays craze might calm down and shorting safe heavens against my base currency NOK..
Good luck with your trades
Another rally in eur/usd, could be time to go short again ? STR Harry !!!
Pick your levels Conor. This might be just a temporary retrace as fear subsides. Some of these levels above might be minor so I would only trade them with tight stops if it were I.
True Ryan, careful is the word, just basing it on solid trustworthy advisors, Harry, Bestman and Mighty Mike, plus resistance plus MAs and trendlines
Good stuff Conor. It sounds like you’re doing it the right way in listening to opinion. You let that help make your own mind up but you and you alone are making the trading decisions and using the right methods (charts, indicators etc) to make any trades.
bestman is my friend and he is soon joining here … as i said we can all fall keep it mind
Great news Harry, he knows his stuff, Bestman
yes sure though we disagree sometimes but always call him and listen to his thoughts
Good morning (well, afternoon) all !
Bit late to this party, thus no ideas, set-up’s etc. but just …
… Hello everybody, how ya doing ?
Coming over “from the other” side/site due to repeated censor issues
(although they euphemistically called it …Spam !)
Good afternoon dear Sir
Last to the party has to buy the drinks here ya know ;))
Hi HD !
No problem (as long as the bill comes in Italian Lira’s)
Happy to see a lot of “old & trusted names” here around, nice !
You’re more than welcome
Great to see you !
Hi Ars, good to see you my friend. Welcome on board.
Hi Ryan, here to stay on board, let’s see how it works out.
As for actual FX net results (mine), I’m doing fine but my scorecard looks like auntie Agatha’s patchwork throw-over (pftt).
Hahaha, hopefully we help get your scorecard looking better.
Well, it’s not even looking bad at all, you know, hardly a red pip to be spotted !
But those green pips … hardly any decent stint (100 pips or more).
20 here, 40 there … and so on.
That’s been good enough for me of late. For the best part of 9 months now my main trading strat has been picking levels, taking some/half off when +10/20 pips, locking the stop in at close to or at BE and then seeing what the rest does.
Yep, indeed, same here, alas, if it’s that kind of market,
and for the moment being it is, there’s not much else you can do. On the other hand
I’ve been witnessing quite a bunch of traders, deemed reputable and experienced, incurring (heavy) losses and even blowing up entire accounts lately, for … being way to dogmatic in approach/interpretation of the actual market conditions.
Agreed. It’s all about changing with the trading conditions. Sometimes it can take a while to realise that the market dynamics have changed or that trends have stopped. A usual sign is if a strategy you’ve been using successfully stops working and you hit a run of losses. That’s the time to take a step back and assess.
Good afternoon AGP. Welcome to you and any friends
love to see you ars and your bill will come in lira
Updating from earlier and seeing some calming in bonds with the Italian 10y falling back below 3% as well as gold fading it’s panicky move makes me more doubtful and mixed about my earlier levels that are pretty close to the market. I am now more inclined to use even more patience to see how this develops slightly given the near V shape reversals think it all got a bit to excited for a moment there.
I think you’ve got your analysis spot on Jack. I would have been a buyer around 20’s but didn’t get it so I’ll sit back and see what happens. 1.1600/20/40 are the close levels to watch here.
when waiting to watch a level like this would it be wise to drop down to a much lower time frame from say the 30 min which i tend to use the most to the 5 or something to see the interaction of price there or it doesn’t really matter and if it turns and bolts in your favour and you miss it or didn’t have an order there just move on to the next
My main charts are 15m charts. They tell me everything I need to know about the intraday price action. They perfectly show the support and resistance. I tend not to go lower as it becomes too noisy for me but I know people who will use them just to get a bit more info on the price action. I thinks it’s one of those things you have to watch and monitor as you trade to see if it would have improved the trade at all.
Thanks again Ryan i have been getting a feel that for day to day that the 30m is a little too zoomed out and the 5 min a little to zoomed in maybe the 15m will be just right (haha) think i will try 15 as they will give more detail around levels than 1h or 30m
Good luck. You’ll see an example of the 15m I look at from the chart I’ve just put up on EURUSD on the live blog. You don’t need any lines or indicators to see sup around 1.1530/40, the res into 1.1600 and the Asia hi/lo’s 1.1620/40.