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Collects more scalps than Crazy Horse and newly crowned Bitcoin & Dow top calling master.
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
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buy uj. buy kiwi, and guppy
in the money, stop on uj and guppy moved to b/e
Waiting for how the close today will shape up. Meantime, bought AUDNZD @ 1.0785, adding @ 1.0726, SL below 1.0655, TG 1.1140
Good Morning friends,
EURUSD UPDATE:
With the pair closing above 1.1675 levels yesterday, now eyes on the 1.1788 levels, a halt is likely but a break will aim the 1.1840 levels, next resistance comes at the 1.1937 levels. On the downside, a daily closing back below 1.1675 should weaken the recent recovery and open the way to the 1.1509 levels, Anyway; the pair remains in a recovery mode as long as trades above 1.1509 on a daily closing basis and further upside couldn’t be ruled out.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is bullish above 1.1647 – broken resistance turned support, above this level will keep pushing towards the 1.1720, a halt is likely – as seen yesterday- but a break will aim the 1.1780 levels, further upside, resistance comes at the 1.1840 levels. On the downside, below 1.1647 will bring corrective pullback to the 1.1590 levels before another rising, however; below 1.1590 will look for the 1.1545/1.1509 levels.
Morning folks. A lean week for me with the focus being a family wedding. Spending today clearing up a few bits of stop money to tidy things up. Long CADYEN`s from the break of 84, filled 84.025.
I messed about yesterday ignoring my thoughts that the US-EU trade spat tariffs were already pretty much written-in on the latest moves down in the Euro. Perhaps now, with NFP`s very much the focus today, investrors will turn to the implications of tariffs and retaliations US/EU ready to tackle that issue further next week.
German PMI`s will be interesting today as will UK Manufacturing PMI`s, however, next week will likely see the Euro positioned more once the analysis is digested and the fear that tariffs might be extended to imports of cars into the US, tales a hold.
Waiting patiently on NFP`s. I suspect we`re in for a very busy week next week.
Happy hunting folks with this good 2-way business.
Congrats. Is that CJ a day trade?
Yes Bestman. We`ve been trading that pair for a while now. It`s been very good 2-way business for some weeks now. Perhaps it will trend some now that the BoC is out of the way. I`m still interested in the Euro. The emphasis will be big money`s analysis on the implications of tariffs next week. That is very complicated analysis and should be widely available sometime today, so next wek for that one. In the meantime, good 2-way business elsewhere.
I`m waiting patiently, pretty much as I see you are.
Thx. I surely am. EU barely managed to save that monthly close yest, unlike Cable i must say, so today’s weekly close is of big significance imo. Asked about CJ coz i might be going the other direction after yest’s escalation btw US & CA. Oil’s next direction, will be the key
yes, I was thinking on oil myself. The pair hasn`t really followed the oil story recently in the expected way. It`s been very much a risk-on/off pair ignoring oil fluctuations around the highs. That will change back to normal soon enough. I`m out now. It`s done the job. Stop monies back. Clear account for the week. Nice and tidy.
Personally I dont get too hung up with weekly closes. If EURUSD were to close at 1.1800 today, there is no reason it cant trade back down at 1.1500 by the end of next week..
We can view any weekly chart and see price closing near or on the highs / lows of the week, only to swiftly reverse the next .
Good point H after looking at the weekly. Euro`s troubles are by no means over. Onto next week for that one.
It’s always a possibility. But it helps give a direction to lean on into the week after with the levels well defined. For instant, if EU managed to close at these levels or better today, I’ll probably be a dip buyer next week against 1.15 rather than a rally seller until 1.1910 gets re tested.
If it makes you money Bestman, then we are not to dispute it at all. Different strokes for different folks.
I wouldn’t bother if it didn’t. After all, that’s what we’re here for lol
Way to go mate
USD is gathering strength today, would be trying to pop recent top if NFP helps.
Well if that happened, then a massive $ rally is coming!
Yep, Bestman, not necessarily by NFP though, what I can tell is that USD strength is correlated with markets faith in Trump’s ability right after his election, and the faith has been getting stronger and I see it is in “overbought zone” now, the question is when it will fall off from there.
Q: If FTSE was to rally another 20% from here, where would cable be trading by then?
Much depends on how Gilts behave. FTSE traditionally, as you know, weighs some on GBP as it gains height. That can disconnect IF Gilts yields are stable and moving higher.
Positive GBP pmi figures therefore you would expect it to lift??? Lets see if it gets through the 13300 / 13308 barrier or if it Just hangs around again til NFP.
UK manufacturing is indeed better news. 2nd tier. Watch the August hike expectations. that`s what it`s all about. Currently priced in around 50%. As it creeps up or down above or below 50%, GBP will follow.
Thanks Si, I suppose Manufacturing PMI in the UK is so small now it hardly makes a difference to the economy.
It helps WD with the general tone of expectations going forward. Services drive the economy. If services PMI`s advance and the reports on all PMI`s elements show good, then manufactruring, industrial and construction do indeed matter very much.
Good late morning all,
DB downgraded by S&P, mixed PMI’s, BOJ scaling back a little on their 5-10 yr bond purchases (20bln JPY), G7 in full swing but mostly noise so far. US labour report to come . TGIF
-Got stopped on half EURJPY back through 127.25 on a trailing stop overnight. Half still open with a wider stop on that one ; Overall still in the money thanks to yesterday’s wide range jobbing bu tif my 128 stop would go it’d be a disappointment, especially after DB’s downgrade by S&P.
-Still short USDJPY, but I won’t fight if 109.35/40 goes on the US labour report. That would see me pay for the funding after having jobbed rather nicely yesterday.
-Long a tad USCAD, looking to add 1.2930 , with a tight stop under there. Caution on CAD, my positive feeling on Nafta is waning after the past 48 hrs and oil seems to want to turn a bit lower.
-Added short NZDUSD through this 0.6990/95 and small short EURGBP 0.8795.
Stay Safe and happy hunting
After yesterday’s whipping up and down in the afternoon i took a step back and just sat on my hands as i felt trying to place a trade in that with the politics going on as well was like putting my hands in a blender. I’ve moved my levels a little wider across the pairs being watched which are USDCADGBP/JPY as well as EURUSD, USDCAD and GBPUSD. Though i am loathed to try anything before NFP so it’s looking like a morning of waiting for me at the moment and possibly something this afternoon after the data though if nothing takes my fancy by then I’ll just start the weekend early 🙂
Good approach Jack, what doesn’t need to, doesn’t have to. The market will still be there on Monday and will have digested this eventful week. Pairs will still be on the move and directions taken. Get your levels sorted and take it from there. If the market comes to them, trade them. If not they will next week…
Thanks K-man i seem to usually have a knack of losing on NFP day so today I’m making an effort to try and not to haha, plus taking a step back should stop me getting caught up in wanting to trade something just because data’s come out and PA is whipping about all excited. Like you said levels then I’ll see how they are approached.
GBPAUD long after UK data and strong 4H candle from support of 200 DMA and TL.
Took out at 200HMA (first target) before NFP volatility for 45 pips profit in 1 hour.
How to describe mr Littlestone on the site of his former employer when you notice that his last name triggers a approval by a administrator!… haha
“Google for a english bald guy with a great call on EU when everyone was screaming for parity..Still writes very good stuff 🙂
Should ring a bell i assume..if not let me know how to send a direct message.”
Writeing good stuff also applies for the rest of the team here.. Todays talk was about the “put part” i EU today that Ryan wrote about this morning so thats why he got some extra attention! 😉 hehe
Keep up the good work!
Noticed your “struggle” to get that comment through … haha
(Kleinstein instead of Littlestone should do the trick 😉
I’ve been called many things over the years but never a Kleinstein ?
That’s not true ! Back at FXL I already called you out for Herr Kleinstein at least once !
Remember … when we bumped in a spat after you accused me openly to have my rotten pomodori’s (to be thrown at equally rotten Euro MP’s) grown in Poland, instead of down south in the booth (citing production cost reasons).
That was not sitting well with me (still doesn’t) and started the Kleinstein thing …
Ha ! Found the original thread back on my disquss profile, funny !
“get the rotten eggs ready junckers coming to london”
Hahahahaha I do remember that (and I stand by my comments) 😉 😀
Hahahahaha :-DDD
And I still gonna pay you a visit to get my pomodori revenged.
AND I WILL NOT BE ALONE !!!
haha
Now you started something AGP…. 😉
Yeah … horrible slip of the keyboard …
afraid I’ll have my days counted here …
Hehe don’t worry as long as the name seekers stay limited to a cple of thousands … 😉
Lucky my surname isn’t Forex or they’d be really screwed ?
I note at after UK PMI,Cable struggled to get to daily pivot at 13808 and retraced very quickly ;( The question for me is can it break that level before NFP or will it dive?? Watching….
I note the daily Piviot has been surpassed. Next target 13340 /13348. I am long from 13290. I will be out before NFP ;> having a good day so far
Bounced off the 200hr SMA out at present with 28 pips
why…why… why is eu shooting up…
Spain’s Rajoy voted out of office, Sanchez set for prime minister role
well that reaction came in late… thought that was priced in…
How will NFP reports affect the market today?!
we have 3 scenarios:
Scenario # 1: If both reports are positive, the USD will rise, How this scenario will affect the market?!!
EURUSD: The pair will dip below 1.1647 testing 1.1590 a halt is likely but a cut will aim 1.1545/1.1509 levels, any upside move is a selling opportunity (capped by 1.1720).
GBPUSD: The pair will dip to the 1.3220 levels where a break will aim the 1.3135 levels. Resistance comes at the 1.3300 levels ahead of the 1.3385 levels.
USDJPY: After rejection from 108.30 levels, the pair trades at the moment above the key resistance 108.95, a further upside to the 110.08 levels is very likely, above that level -unlikely to break it- will aim the 111.00 levels, On the downside support comes at the 108.30 levels any decline above that level is a buying opportunity!
Scenario # 2: If both reports are negative, the USD will fall, How this scenario will affect the market?!!
EURUSD: The EURUSD will continue rising to 1.1720 levels where a break will aim the 1.1789 levels, support comes at the 1.1647 levels ahead of the 1.1590 levels, any decline is a buying opportunity!
GBPUSD: The pair will rise above 1.3300 levels testing main resistance at 1.3385 levels, a break above that level is unlikely and we may see a quick fall from that level to close lower below 1.3300 levels, anyway above 1.3385 will aim the 1.3527 levels.
USDJPY: The pair will challenge the key support 108.30 If fails to hold, it will decline further to 107.50 levels, next support comes at the 106.60. Any upside will be limited by 110.08 levels.
Scenario # 3: One report is positive and the other is negative?!! The market will continue moving in the current direction (sideways move). How this scenario will affect the market?!!
EURUSD: Buy on dips, any decline will be limited by support levels 1.1647 ahead of 1.1590 levels. On the upside, resistance comes at 1.1720, it may test it and decline to test 1.1647 before another rise, above 1.1720 will aim 1.1789 levels, if breaks above 1.1720, this level will serve as a strong support level…
GBPUSD: Expected range 1.3220/1.3385 levels, a minor level comes at 1.3305.
USDJPY: Buy on dips, it may test 108.30 before another rise, expected range 108.30/110.10, a minor level is seen around 108.95/109.25…
Nicely set out analysis Nader.
Thank you Sir 🙂
Nice one Nader .
Thank you 🙂
seems like the market already gotten ahead with a pre nfp movement…
when the president leaks it the market fore runs it then the market will do what it does best… reverse the whole damn thing… just saying…
There seems to be two factors at play HS. The trend of the day was a falling DXY and yen weakness. That looked to have paused over the data and then we had the Trump stuff. The PA looked enough like that traded out and then we got back on the DXY/yen bus.