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Qe will continue much longer time than we think .. unless it ends and (safe)
eurobonds comes and both ways will be a dovish bomb … companies showed
declines in profit latest pmis still showing slowdowns and there is
italy fear recedes or not what will do with debt ? and who is not familiar what safe eurobonds are the link below will explain …
i am selling this euphoria in eu as i see no follow through past 1.1770 previously talked about this possible range extension of the move and bloomberg reporting provided an exit for longs …
still gold rally seller as i see wont hold above 1300 for a long period
dx dip buyer i beleive we will revisit 95 before minor pullback on fed
ps : be aware of sudden report reversing bloomberg move
have a nice day all
Hello harry:)
i previously talked about this jimbo
Just joking:) U have more substance than that guy..Lol
As for the euro.. Sell may come after so called “live” meeting..(Well,maybe could go either way) Current spot level will not gather any large meaningful move to the down-side .. Around 1.195 perhaps buying the dip oneuro/sterling/aud/nzd/cad as far as i’m concerned:)
no reason for me to feel bullish on eu till now until a close above 1.1850 i dont see happening … sterling buddy i am with you the sky deal will create bids
Exit for longs around 1.1770 area?
i had a short at 1.1750
i dont think it will go above 1.1800
nop
my target for my longs is 1.1776… then sell at the same area…
Well, EUR crosses say otherwise. I may be wrong but likely we test 1.18 or higher today
initially i was thinking would it rally up to 1.18300… before another leg or legs down… then i thought i could be a bit too ambitious…
I think dips will be bought. A bit longer term, I believe a re test of 1.2 should come (classical correction). But for now I’m still cautiously long and trailing stops. Will start reversing around 1.19. I’m also watching EURJPY 130.10 and DX 93.20 carefully for clearer direction
EJ if trend lines still plays well i suspect 130.0 area would stall the rally… actually looking Eurusd to test or break May’s low then rally up to 1.2 perhaps after 14 June or end of June…. have trailing stops on eurusd longs too… now just 10 pips away…and im out
options at 1.18 🙂
yehh and 1760, they’re the only thing keeping rally capped at the moment
Agreed merlin 1.1750 is the line in the sand. Strong rejection of that handle, it`s short again, but I suspect it`s more likely to get and stay above that handle and it`s a long from a retest imho. This June story is really taking a hold. rightly or wrongly.
yep ill hold to this short expecting a fall after the german bund auction ..and a dollar bid on ny open
Morning folks.
Took the long CADYEN`s called in the room 84.3829 and cashed 84.684 as the pair stalled. 5 minutes later the news on Mnuchin`s demand that Trump should exempt Canada from tariffs, put me back in 84.716 and cashed out 85.148. had to be nimble there. very nice combined chunk.
earlier in the room, I had called my long AUDUSD75981 and just took 7667 after the big beat on Aussie GDP`s. Look for a decent dip somewhere.
Took the Cable long from 1.3376 and just took 1.34224. Again, looking for the dip.
profit taking going on all around as stocks take it up, China closes.
Looking for dips now. happy hunting folks
Nice poach on Aussie . Never any doubt was there :))
You hit the nail on the head yesterday H. Took the words right out of my mouth. ” It created the GDP`s expectations premium”. Next is higher imho. The economy is running hot and despite it`s obvious problems with housing and debt. they will have to hike to cool it off some.
Closed cable longs too. Though was expecting 76.82 or higher on AUDUSD!
It`s got 7720/30 in it yet bestman. needs to give a bit back 1st. 7635 could hold good-ish support. Aussie always gives plenty back and quickly after a big beat
Yehh agree on both counts
USDJPY is launching another assault on the 110 figure and the offers above .
Two large expires for today and tomorrow for the 10:am NY cut as marked on the chart below.
I’m holding a core short from 110.62, and had other successful short trades over the last few weeks.
If we keep the bid tone for today then Thursdays option could keep price hanging https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a771489ae08f8e06908abe6e5756a1bd151b1c0c871735eef0fb54076cf027bb.png around these levels for another day at least. … I’m looking to add to my core short to make a medium term multi – position attempt at a short play.
That`s shaping up well H
Pound long trade for me this morning although I expect a pullback before it makes its way to the 1.35 area
Cable at the top of the hourly channel and did just break above the 13422 level this morning before dropping quickly back to 13397. Pushing up again to try and clear the top of the channel through R1 to 13440 and perhaps beyond. There is however no clear data to support the move and it could just fall back into the monthly range so far. My bias is long this morning. Watching
Congrats to the people who bought Aussie on the dip yesterday with the intention of holding for a GDP beat in Asia trading today. ? Proved to be a nice way to start the day … flat on Aussie now .
Bough the dip, moved my SL too early and was stopped out with one pip profit. didn’t go back in ;<(
? When words are not enough
Have one on me William :))
The problem with looking at shorter time frames
I’ll probably regret this but sold GBPJPY @ 147.84 (re test of the previously broken channel). SL above 148.20
Brought cable on the dip just before yesterday’s fix and just took profit, was a nice trade. Stopped out last night on short Eur Jpy so currently flat and watching the levels, pause for thought day for me until something clear presents it self, keeping risk management extra tight today.
Hello traders
Good to see the site and trading room folks jumping on the Aussie train yesterday. H set the scene early doors yesterday and the rest of us poached the dip at or under 0.7600. The ‘Choice Pickings’ award I think goes to Besty, who beat everyone in grabbing the low of the day ?
Moving forward, I think we might see the Aussie a touch more balanced now. We’ve had the RBA, we’ve had big data and now we might enter a “what next?” period. That might result in some profit taking of the recent move higher. It also means we see the other side of the coin (USD) have a bigger say in direction. For the last few days it’s been nearly all about AUD and sometime’s it’s easy to forget there’s other currencies involved. The 0.7590/7600 is your line in the sand for this rally.
EURUSD has had quite a change in fortunes from yesterday. It was looking forlorn until that ECB story hit and even though I don’t really think it gave us anything we didn’t know, It helped put a bottom in place. 1.1800/30/55 are the levels to watch above. I’m still long from last week and I’ll look to slice n dice a bit into 1.1800, should we see it.
USDCAD gave me a fortunate trade yesterday but I’m back on the sidelines as it went crazy horse just after that. When I don’t fully understand why a price is running amok, I’d rather sit back and wait for the dust to settle. I may be tempted to play the same 1.30 tight short, depends on the PA.
Have a wonderful day everyone.
everytime people get excited on the aussie it surprises you with a 50-60 pip sell off. this time lets see if it is different. its too complicated of a currency to hold. u cannot keep on holding it for months
Now the carry is not so appealing, it does seem to have become more of a scalping ccy . Agree.
Anyone that knows how I trade Nach, knows this. I plan trades well ahead of time. Always looking ahead for opportunities. So just a few things here:
I trade cash rate decisions and GDP`s most of all. They hold more fruit than any other print trade.
So in the same way that I looked at last night`s Aussie GDP`s coming up when the previous month printed, I am now using last night`s print to plan for the next RBA cash rate decision. Thus far, I am going for a hike. The economy is running hot despite it`s obvious problems with household debt and property woes. Oz is a serial recession avoider. tell me the last time they had a recession and then look around everywhere else and compare.
So although, as you say, Aussie almost always sells off immediately after a beat on expectations, this seems different. No sell off yet. It will sell down some and that might be an opportunity to buy back in there and trade the cash rate. It stinks of a hike now. Things can change, yes, but best laid plans and all that jazzy stuff can pay real divi`s if you open your mind to it. 😉
See you all at the cash rate day 🙂
Good morning everyone,
I was out for a good part of the yesterday and again today, keeping my trades tiny.
Loads of things happened and barring one, none helped my positions. But as I managed to reduce some of the risk as per live update and left some relatively tight stops, the result is petty flat for the bank:
-EURJPY shorts stopped the other half off through 128.70,
-EURGBP the other half off through 0.8755 on a trailer,
-USDJPY bought bck as AUS gdp came out, to many risk on factors reading back on what happened during the day/night and via the data
-I ‘m keeping my pinch long AUDUSD, added a tiny on Ozzy gbp at 50, and long AUDNZD
-Long a tad GBPNZD @ 1.9025 from yesterday, It’s shaping up as 1.9000 held today. Volatile pair, need to monitor closely. A move above 1.9090/00 would give me some comfort to add.
-I added a tiny CADJPY long @ 84.87 after reading the Mnuchin lines well after the event. Watching the Cad Ivey PMI for the viability of this one.
Risk could get another lift but I won’t chase anything from here rather wait to buy dips. We’ve seen many times a quite impulsive move develop over a few hours just to be reversed right after for little reason cfr the CAd move yesterday. I understand these moves as being driven by short rather than long term accounts. And we’re never far from a political headline and the next G7 etcetera
Safe travels and happy hunting
Hi Everyone Changed my name to WDFX from William Donnelly……sounds a bit more focused. By the way the picture is taken out of my Campervan, Glencoe in the really bad February weather, Just in case anyone is interested. Andyes big H I am holding a beer ;>)
Glencoe…beautiful up there. You`re a hardy sort William. Glencoe in February in a campervan 😉
The Van is fully grade three insulated and I had just bought it. Made it as far as Uig in Skye where the temperature dropped to minus 13. We were cozy. However sat outside wrapped up with a G&T and the ice did not melt in the glass ;>
🙂
Good morning, a quick update got a bit excited on the break of 1.1750 in EURUSD looking for a test up at 1.1800 (just before) actually holding still no exit yet (haha) wide stop as i think no matter my opinion on QE exit the market is possibly going to lend some support to the EUR now risks being Italy and trade still.
After a small loss on my USDCAD short in the 1.3000 area raucous yesterday I’m flat everything else.
Biases buy a larger dip on GBP, buy EURJPY 128.50 first main S/R for me. buy CAD preferably against the th JPY watching USDCAD 1.30 again mixed on USD still though tilted to the sell side.
If 1.18 not reached will watch 1.1720-00 for a possible location to add a small amount if it holds.
Missed the AUD trade yesterday but it seems everyone got a great deal on that one 🙂 Though I’m unsure if to buy or sell as i sold it yesterday for the RBA but now the GDP is good making me want to buy leaving me overall conflicted.
Have a good day everyone!
Sold NZDUSD @ 70.44 SL 70.62 TG 69.60. Got some extra pips to waste lol
Update here now manged to stay in my long today closed at just before by about 5 pip from 1.1790 target better than normal. As suggested after the first 10 pip push took a very small “snip” off to calm my doubt than sat it out planning to add lower . Did take another more or less unnecessary piece before target around 1.1780 when i could have let it all go to 1.1790 but I’m taking the positive that the trade was 6hrs long rather the 6 mins.
Next levels on the EUR 1.1735-20 but will wait as EURJPY looks like it’s found a top atm and i feel that that has helped hold EURUSD up today we’ll see. 🙂
All good Jack. never a bad time to take a profit despite what the guru`s tell you.
in hindsight every thing always seems obvious and saying it after is always easier haha I heard somebody say once that the returns at Hindsight Capital are always great though
Jack, maybe 1.1790 was place to short also, for another good trade
I’ve been watching it thinking just that :/ but part of me doesn’t really want sell against the prevailing buying at the moment after all that ECB stuff, personally anyway. Probably look to buy again at some point though if the lower levels come back into play 🙂
Sold short E/U AT 1.179. Will add if gets to my real target of 1.181. Sold some U/J on Bud Spencer’s tip and out with 24 pips earlier. Cheers!!
Spud who ? ?
Welcome Mijo
Great site. Lots of smart and seasoned traders here.
Spread the word Mijo and welcome
Must be a gap Dubs…have you seen one?
Long USDCAD on the news at 12864 currently plus 40 pips ;>)
Changing your name to WD40 worked a treat there William .
Loosened the old trigger finger 😉
Not really. made a couple of school boy errors first thing this morning with stops too tight. Too much of a cringe to mention but I am still positive for the day but down on where I should be. Sometimes I hate cable, especially when its up and down like a brides nightie…..::>)
But when betty really lifts that skirt up, we`re in business
hehe,..I shouldn’t have spent so much time this afternoon looking for a midgie net for the campervan. distractions distractions. By the way big H WD40 is probably a bit more appropriate, Missed it a few mins ago.
We will get an email sent out to you by tomorrow mate – regarding your trading room enquiry.
Stone the crows, Still long Loonie, +70 pips now will it break the 100 hr sma at 12946 ;>)
I hope it does get the jump W. It`ll help my CADYEN short. Doing nicely but a bit of loonie help won`t go amiss. Good stuff
Its bounced off it and I am out, Still quite happy with that, Bugger its reversed……
Good stuff
Its no wonder I take a drink