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hawkish powel dovish draghi and the range of pretty held between
1.15-1.1625 and i am a rally seller … barrier hunt could occur 1.15
and 1.1450 and a break of 1.1450 will be explosive
remain an ej rally seller
no dx didnt peak yet and remain dip buyer
be aware of risk sentiment sneaking back again
have a nice week all
Have a good one Harry
thank you dear
Morning traders
What are we to make of markets?
I think I was a bit too eager to get back into trading yesterday. On this post yesterday I said I wasn’t going to go chasing, yet did just that with the 1.3180 break trade in cable. I had plenty of opportunity to get out with some pips but chose to let it run and got stopped out on the balance after taking some profit. While I got the trade idea right, I executed the management poorly and really should have held my discipline as there were better levels I could have entered at.
So, today, I’m going to be more disciplined and stick to my usual trading rules. We’ve just come through a boat load of central bank meetings and have seen some decent repricing of expectations for those CB’s so there’s not a lot to trade there for now. Add in entering the summer lull and being bang in the middle of the World cup, we’re likely to see long periods of inactivity interspersed with any headline driven moves. That can have a added effect because one minute the market is snoozing and then it sees something to trade so everyone piles in to try and make some pips. That can magnify moves compared to when markets are a little busier. Obviously the big headlines are centred around trade so that’s where the main volatility will be.
I’ll be mainly sticking to the bigger and wider levels in play. That means I’ll be looking at the H4/daily charts to pick my battle grounds but I’ll also keep watching my 15m charts to see where the the intraday edges are for jobbing opportunities. All that will likely mean I need to have a bit more patience in waiting for a trade but I’d rather wait for a good trade than go chasing a bad one out of boredom. We always have to adjust to the market conditions.
The best of luck to you all today.
Short USDJPY – I’m a tad spooked by the price action since yesterday I will bail on the remainder of my positions from 110.82 -40 above the 110.30 level if reached in order to preserve some profits, then think again.
Brexit shenanigans will keep my short GBPUSD 1.3199 in focus – staying nimble and will add on any further weakness. EURJPY short is going nowhere, but I have a good few pips margin on the right side of current price.
Long Aussie and short EURAUD taken in Asia . These are scalps / intraday trades at this time . – A possible short EURNZD setting up again . I will keep you posted on that one if taken .
I will be happy taking all / part profits around the 1.56 level on EURAUD to give me 60+ pips – alternatively I will close on any strength early in this session.
Morning all, still no trades as of today really really wanted to jump in on a whim in GBPUSD yesterday but controlled myself for a change now listening out for the vote later today on that one and first close level would be 1.3200 area before 1.3220.
A more medium term idea i havet is selling NZDUSD based on poor GDP expected (if this comes in at or above RBNZ forecast of 0.7% QoQ i will reassess) the carry trade with USD is only going to get worse the longer the RBNZ sit on their hands as well as poor business confidence and dairy prices. First level i see is 0.6920 looking to add above into 0.6940. Stop is planned above 0.70 because above there I feel something may have changed and NZD would then be more bullish. But we couldnt really advance anywhere above there last time sitting sideways for day topping out about 0.7050.
and finally a more intraday trade sell into 1.1640 on EURUSD is my third level, i was looking at EURJPY but with the risk sentiment easing i feel i dont have a clear enough feel to commit to any of the levels and would rather watch these closer ones for now, but lean on the side of selling any sizeable rally higher.
Have a good day everyone 🙂
Morning folks. Still holding short DXY futs and long WTI CFD`s. Going nowhere with those. FX-wise, just a Guppy short ahead of the long-running saga of the UK Withdrawal Bill vote in the House of Commons today.
Travelling light into the holiday.
A lean June for me. May was ok. January to April-end was very good indeed. We`re getting well into the “sell in May and go away” thin markets now. It`s just as well that we have geoploitics and politics to trade.
Happy hunting folks and the very best of luck.
Good late morning all,
Got stopped on a part of my USDJPY shorts( at the top) as I put the stop to close to guarantee profit from 110.50 and didn’t study the chart enough(slap on the bum). Above 110.30 is where it should be. Re-entered not to far from where I got stopped and upped the stop to 110.35.
Short a few cable, stop will be above 1.3190, roughly entry lvl.
Was long EURGBP from 0.8770. Took half profit @ 99 and stopped on a very tight one back @ 88 on the rest. EUR and GBP move in tandem as long as Brexit remains relatively quiet. Will be looking to play the 0.8720/30-0.8830/40 range for a while.
Was short AUDJPY again, transformed it last night into short AUDUSD. Stop just above the day’s high @ 0.7415
And the tiny short USDMXN. Tomorrow sees CB of Mexico rate decision. Expectations anywhere from 25 to 75bps at the extreme. I’d go for 25 to 50 bps. I trust the CB wants to keep some powder dry ahead of the elections.
A multitude of CB speakers today at the ECB forum. Not sure if we’ll hear anything important but algo’s will pick up wordings. A counter- and range trading market is my feeling.
Stay safe and happy hunting