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maybe a down trend is developing in loonie, as spotted by 5Mafia in our room. :)) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0c167bce267e9c08e4d7ab76c5cc85b42271fc4cf8c077471a61170139ad02a7.png
The best trendline to follow on USDCAD imo is the Daily joining Oct 2017 and March this year .
We are still above that, so be careful not to be wrong footed in the noise
shorted cable, for scalping i will say…at the 80-00 lv. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b004c45347647acd5bfa5fafe9ad50cb5854ac6b4938cc70d8b548d0ac7680f0.png
ej just reached a good short area.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BkYKwHLXiU
Long EU, GU, NU, AU just took the vast chunk of profits, would normally have let it run a bit more but needed to recoup yesterday’s losses so happy to be back to winning ways.
Welcome back Tally,
Always nice for it to happen towards the end of the week for the moral!
Great work Tally
Morning folks.
Eurogroup Financ Ministers meeting today. It`s possible that we might see a statement out as a result of the combined meetings (Eurogroup and fin Min`s). We warned a few days ago that a draft statement was being prepared and that statement might include a recommendation that all 27EU members should make preparations for all deals on Brexit, crucially with some emphasis on a no deal scenarion. Look out for that IF indeed it hits the wires.
I Took profit on the DXY CFD`s yesterday. Back to that after my holidays. WTI`s long CFD is still in there with a shout.
I took long Guppy in the room from 145.581, looking for 147 and long GBPNZD on another pending long 1.9255, which only barely survived my stop 1.91975. Stop in Guppy 145.260, now up to break-even on caution.
Looking to sell the rally in Gold. Watching yields for a signal there.
Happy hunting folks and all the best of luck.
I have been enjoying the Gbp Nzd recently, it tends to range well. I sold a little bit after it had a mini top side blow at the end of the US session but jumped out for a small one due to GBP keeping up the pressure
It`s not giving me what I want as yet Tally. I gave a nice chunk away on it yesterday and then it hit my stop. Stuck with it and re-entered to take a very nice combined chunk from a long + add-on. So I`ll give it another chance.
I’m just sitting down going over the GN chart – top down. The weekly has the 200 MA coinciding with 38 fib from the 2015 highs at 19800 below we have 100 weekly MA at 18300 with happens to be Bang on the supporting trundling so from a weekly perspective we are on slightly lower middle ground.
On the daily price was rejected on the topside at 100 day MA yesterday and hassnt looked back since.
Have a feeling we will head down lower on Monday, Kiwi could well be on a turn around next week however a move up past 19300 would have me buying the 18900 level is also key. I will Lilley look at an opportunity to sell this pair on a retrace next week.
Good morning all,
Short USDMXN and Long GBPJPY as per live room yesterday. Partial tp hit on that one this morning just below 146.50. For EU Ecofin meeting reasons, keeping the stop tight to 146.15 now.
I just added a pinch long EURUSD here @ 1.1650 writing this. Being through the 1.1633/40 zone, I reckon we may have legs for a move up to 1.1700 or 1.1740. Trade wars feel softening a bit, US data coming in weaker, European service pmi’s doing better, Italy not such a bad boys as long as they don’t start to ask for free Brussels’ cash. I don’t have more… Keeping things tight on that one, stop @ 30
We also have weekend risk : Juncker called for a mini EU summit over the weekend on immigration. Keep a close eye on that one for any gap opens come Sunday night
Interesting picture watching on the dailies, we could be shaping up for a “W” pattern. Nothing done yet but beware if mid 1.17s would start to give way.
Stay safe, happy hunting and keep karaoke on https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1a10db91d972b19adf03d6e168234d7102dce08effe528548a261a7dbb2517fc.png
Taking the rest GBPJPY off @ 146.52. Keeping the bank happy on this Friday
I think 1.1740 sounds very optimic, with the 0.236 fibo at 1.1718 (taken from the 1.2400 highs to 1.1508) and the 0.5 and 0.618 fib from the 1.1850 to 1.1508 drop to contend with.
Since the dovish ECB meeting, there have not been enough good news to justify a move above these fibs in my opinion.
Hi Forex Fox, cheers for the comment.
There’s a army of fibs 1.1697 up to 1.1755 depending on which moves we’re looking at, it will be an interesting zone to watch indeed. Hence My initial lvl at 1.1700 where it’ll be case to see if we can reach the upper side. The 23.6% from the high 1.2556 to 1.1508 comes in at 1.1755.
It may all be in vain to try though if German politicians continue to roar their ugly heads as per latest SPD article in the German press…
Thanks for your comment. Always good to have a discussion about the technicals!
I understand your logic fully, and I acknowledge the political risk which in my opinion poses more downside risk than upside risk – hence I stick to my EUR/USD bearish view.
Furthermore, it is hard to argue with yesterdays price action, which certainly confirms buying interest around 1.1500, hence supporting your view. However, these longs might be looking to bail out at current levels to load up again should we approach the 1.1500 barrier?
Absolutely. Takes Two to tango…
I’m not (yet) having a medium term view. This is a short term try for now with a contained 25 pips risk back through 1.1630in case the house of cards falls apart .
Cheers
waiting TP on EURUSD @ 1.1680 and GBPUSD @ 1.3315
still holding USDCAD shorts avg 1.3295
Well held Zoran
A good Asia session that banked a net 68 pips followed by some quick pips from long EURUSD on that rip higher.
I’m bullish EURUSD as long as we stay above 1.1630-40 today and added back to my long position on the dip just now ….. .. It’s still a scalpers market as I see it.
Long Kiwi doing well – took some profits on EURJPY short from up high . Still seeking an opportunity to add back. USDJPY is staying in my bearish range, so holding short for now.. Added long Aussie from 0.7391 – looking strong at this time in a slow burn style .
Quick grab in GBPJPY after BOE yesterday though it wasnt a planned out trade so was a bit of a flustered trade.
Today or last night i began my next idea with the upcoming RBNZ next week given the hawkish tones and slight easing of tensions overall i am long GBPNZD now and that’s it my sell bias in EUR and GBPUSD in particular became mixed and felt forced so i skipped my planned level which have now been surpassed anyway.
Whether i think there will be a hike in Aug or autumn doesn’t really matter i guess as the market clearly is thinking about it again. Threw in a buy this morning at current price and planning on adding if i was a bit early on a retracement to scale in. Targeting first possibly 1.94. I feel entering small here i have my towel on the sunbed now and if things progress as i am thinking without a retrace i have at least a bit in.
Happy Friday all!
Overnight I entered long term long GBPCHF on 1.3130 at least until August BOE if not longer….
Happy Friday everyone
Markets have got me conflicted. I understand some of the moves and don’t understand others. The risk rally looks good yet I can’t help but think it’s built on paper foundations and not concrete. As the guys below note, it looks like a scalpers market rather than trying to grab a longer-term trade. Roll with the punches, keep things tight and be prepared to jump ship if it’s looking dodgy.
I’m still a bit cheesed off about missing my entry near 1.1510 in EURUSD. Always easy to say when it’s 150 pips higher. The 1.1670 area I highlighted yesterday is in play today. The battle right now is 1.1630-the highs. If 1.1630 fails I can see old shorts pulling their socks up to try and punish longs by trying to get it under 1.1600. Under there, this positivity might evaporate some. Conversely, if buyers take the highs we’re on for a crack at 1.17 and that will further strengthen the support around 1.1630.
For GBP, we’re still feeling bullish for the BOE. Hike odds by Rtrs metric stand at 49.2%, up a touch on yesterday. Added in with the positive mood, Betty can still stretch her legs further. It’s a dip buyers market now so any mildly negative Brexit headlines will be hoovered up. Bigger headlines might have a bigger impact and we know they can be hovering around the corner. 1.3200/20 is the ultimate support now but we should see some at 1.3260 & 1.3240. In our live room order board, stops have been in place through 1.3300 for sometime so watch those. The chart suggests that 1.3340/50 is the next main bad of resistance but the 1.3450/60 area is the big one on the wider view.
I’ll be heading off later this afternoon to see the Foo Fighters, and as it’s karaoke Friday here at FFL, have this one on me. Good luck all.
https://youtu.be/TRqiFPpw2fY