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Friday the 13th — Always lucky as it’s the day before the weekend .
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yen day still but look like yen stronger today
as i said yesterday it would a need a miracle for eurusd to go above 1.17 but you never know selling eurusd if it goes to 1.1713-35 as i am keeping my entry 1.1680
selling gbp rallies hard brexit it is
BUY DOLLAR DIPS AND LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES TO SELL STOCKS
2 days ago i suggested to sell eurchf in 1.1685-1.1720 area so sold small one at 1.17
have a nice week end alll and a prosperous friday 13
Good morning all,
Trump managing Brexit and cable now. Anyways USD was already in demand so better be in it for some of the easier pips I’ve made this week, why refuse. Short cable from late late last night. Jobbing half around to either improve average and left a trailer at other half b/e 1.3190.
I went long EURJPY, thinking EUR would be strong enough thanks to EURCHF at 32, stopped at b/e -2 .
Took my revenge on the EUR this morning with a quick short in EURUSD. We’re still in a range there but USD is the currency to own. Jobbing from the short side. 1.1670/80 looking pretty decent to re-enter or on a 1.1585/90 break.
Long USDJPY as per update. Went in/out around the 112.30 fib for a few pips deterioration of the average just like the day before but still running this. There are more barriers to hunt topside, starting with 113. Besides breaking resistances the pa is so steady and gradual, this move could take us a fair bit higher still as JPY pleases to do. My stop is now at 112.20 just below the fib.
Will be buying dips USDTRY again. I reckon we see 5 soon. Being a barrier up there, I would then suspect a pause but TRY should remain weak as long as nothing changes in Turkey.
Safe travels , happy hunting and happy Birthday to all the 13 year old today …
Good morning all.
Another day another round of USD buying, or as K said yesterday, everything else selling. One thing to watch is USDCNH because that’s becoming a big driver of risk sentiment and also there’s an element of traders prodding the PBOC with a stick.
The other thing to watch is the DXY as if that’s moving, it’s what is being reflected in the prices but remember, it’s just an indicator and not a direct driver, the flows will be going through FX. That’s something I saw yesterday when we had a round of JPY selling and then a second round of CHF selling while the yen stood still. That caught my attention because that looked purely like someone was shifting some money in and out of a position or certain currencies.
On the trading front. I’m still long small USDJPY at 112.51 and came within a hairs whisker of being stopped yesterday, and now we’re looking up again. I’ll likely chop around 3/4 off into 113 (if we see it) and leave the rest and trail my stop up. Unfortunately I’ll be out for most of today so unlikely to do much else. However, I’ll keep an eye on things while I’m mobile but will really only look to trade any big levels if they come. 1.30 in cable is one I’ll be watching, and maybe I’ll leave a tight bid in EURUSD at 1.1605 just to play the big fig.
I wish you all a good pip filled day.
Morning folks
End game: There are not enough votes in the UK House of Commons for either a hard Brexit or the Chequers May Brexit plan (and that hasn`t been negotiated upon yet), so investors are sniffing a general election that will more than likely see a Labour government, in which case, it will be either a meaningless Brexit, much softer than the Chequers plan or indeed no Brexit at all with a new referendum forced because Labour aren`t likely to gain a meaningful majority.
Europe is in the same swamp. POTUS is draining the swamp. After avoiding a threat to abandon NATO, investors are taking all this and running to the only game in town, USD. It will quieten down soon enough and once all this repositioning is done with, we will be trading tight ranges again.
The only solution to the current Brexit debacle is for enough hard-line Brexiteers to do a 360 and commit their votes to the Chequers plan AS IT IS. It looks to me that this was Mrs May`s plan all along using time and now the lack of it to attempt to force through a fudge, a soft, business-friendly Brexit or whatever we like to call it.
So Sterling, despite BoE expectations, could face the same pressure it faced during the referendum result decline unless these votes mentioned materialise. It`s a game no one can win and everyone will be blaming everyone for the mess that is Brexit. For my money, in the next few days, IF Michael Gove resigns, short the Pound at will and hard because that will be the first signal for investors to desert the Pound altogether because he will have failed to get the votes.
I`m all square for now and not dipping my toes just yet. Patience!
My DXY futs short from 95.09 was locked into 94.50. That went and paid me some.
My CADYEN`s are gone for nice chunks from 82.9194 and 83.950.
Still a USD story. Happy hunting and have a great weekend.
Si, any time frame for when it will be known whether Gov has the votes or not? Thx. Will be joining chat on Sunday. Looking forward to it.
It`s anyone`s guess Roro. He will either resign or take the reigns from Mrs May, but only IF he gets the votes mentioned. He might even allow Mrs May to remain until March next year. These Brexiteers would follow Gove, but not Mrs May imho as I read it. He will make the promise ( in private) that if they give the votes, he will do the deal with the EU and then claw back everything else (Mrs May`s original red lines)that they demand in years to come after the UK has left in March 2019. Eventually, they will get what they want AND avoid handing the keys to Number 10 to Labour. Not quite as simple as that, but that is broadly, the most likely outcome now. That outcome would be quite GBP positive imho, IF they can make the EU “have it”. There are positive signs coming from the EU, especially Ireland and Eatsern European states to the Chequers plan.
In the meantime, investors will treat the uncertainties as they usually do and desert the Pound to a fair extent.
Morning Si, great write up 🙂 . If we look at the thing from two points 1 the ref vote we had/have a massive disconnect with mp’s to voters 2/3 plus cons mp’s remainers and even worse in the Labour party, of which no 2 Jeremy election as leader overwhelming voters support twice lol but count on one hand almost lab mp’s who support him.
So here we are with this misalignment of voters to there elected representatives.
The joker in the pack is nearly all mp’s look on the job as a career and as so will do almost anything they can to stay in the job. I think this is the factor that will in the end ie now make the policy May will stay as an election means some of them out of a job, (I don’t think there going to back Grove or any other leaver unless a way can be found of no election.) Super interesting time in Westminster,, atvb Si Chris
Agreed Chris. MP`s are career people with one eye on their electorate but with the better eye on the big prize. There are exceptions but very few by comparison. We won`t know the truth of it all until after it`s all done. I think you already know this. I was a reluctant remainer. I had wanted to leave the EU for years since the John Major years but there never seemed to be a good time to leave the thing. We always seemed to be progressively in too deep as the years went by. I reckon this plan of Mrs May`s is the best shot at leaving to then claw back the rest in years to come. I never thought I would prefer to see someone like Michael Gove in the driver`s seat rather than Boris or Davis.
Gove makess sense now and only because he is ruthlessly ruthless. Very clever politician there.
Thx Si……agree with Chris2….great write up.