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eurusd : again selling the rallies 1.1670-90 and 1.1730-50 and it needs a miracle to go there or even rally
still selling the in eurchf above 1.17
reality check on cpi
prefer to buy jpy in crosses but not vs usd
ps : eur longies you need jpy weakness and dx weakness to euro shine other than this dont dream of it
have a nice day allll
impressive call on EURUSD yesterday
thanks mark
As I said last night on another post, Harry’s called this area time and time again and that’s the mark of someone who has got the read of a market.
Well done.
thank you ryan such great honor for me that it is coming from an impressive trader as you
Thanks Harry but as you know my friend, there’s no airs and graces shown here. We’re all equal in trying to achieve the same outcome in making money, so credit’s due where credit is due. Just as long as we don’t muck it up 😉
and thats what will make forexflow shine and always got my support humble traders and good quality contributions from all
Morning been a little while why i got my head round my personal trading style in terms of duration as intraday was one stressing the hell out of me constantly thinking i was missing something and two i could never place a tight enough stop because my mind was thinking long term outlook. Hence i am still here day to day but i am now looking for those longer ideas where i can build up my idea for a trade, match it with some technicals to define risk a lot better and hold for a couple of months say or however long the trend in that direction lasts.
Right now i am long USDJPY after the break higher around 112.30 first target 114.00 top of the old range then possibly higher. Also long GBP but looking back i have to admit to myself this was an unprofessional shot in the dark a pure gamble on the very slim chance of a hike and if i had my time again wouldn’t have entered but letting it play out stop below the 1.3050 low.
Hope you’re all well, and have a great day 🙂
Hi Jack.
It’s great to see you’re still working at things. Keep an eye on the calendar though because these markets are still pretty rangy and we’re only really seeing a break out in USDJPY. As we head into the mid to latter part of August we could see more pairs taking a direction as we come out of summer trading. That will change the landscape and what we’ve been used to for many weeks might suddenly change, and we have to change with it.
A very nice grab on the USDJPY and yes, the 114.00/30/70 area is going to be a big area to watch.
Hi Ryan thanks for the advice as i havent done a full ‘summer’ trading properly before as i basically took it all off last year so will keep a keen eye on things. Maybe also this is why i feel i am forcing things that just are not there. Thanks again for the help! Will also keep a good eye at the 114.
This time of year can be very difficult. I know from guys directly on trading desks who have been telling me that volumes have been very low. In USDJPY we’ve mainly been trading between exporter offers and importer bids.
HI Jack , agree on USDJPY, long too for as long as USDCNH keeps on going. There is an increasing correlation as CNH/CNY-JPY is actively monitored in that zone after CNH’s competitive fall.
As for GBP? Can go anyway but political uncertainty and the risk of a harder line after yesterday’s votes could negate any rate rise easily. I prefer to trade a range from the short side there
Hi K-man
Not going to lie i didn’t know about that correlation there with the USDCNH so thanks for the heads up. And as for that GBP as you said it can go anywhere so i feel it’s more of a lottery ticket so to speak than a trade but it’s so small ill let it go, that being said i don’t think ill be back in in a hurry.
Thanks again for your help
Good morning
Continue shorting USDTRY. 4.82 – 4.86 was a great range to play with last week.
TRY was resilient to USD strength since yesterday (unlike MXN and RUB) and even managed to break below. Closed 1/5 position 4.78 and 4.82
Other than that , added to SP500 shorts 2815 and looking to buy more TRY again
Another who’s in the zone with a currency. Great trading Marek
Thank you Ryan. Not that much luck with those SP500 shorts though 😉
USDTRY making another strong move down as we speak
That barrier is looking formidable at 5.00. BTW, I don;t know if it’s of interest to you but options traders are taking more interest in hedging a break above 5.00. There’s said to be increased interest in strikes up to 5.50. that doesn’t mean that a break will happen but that traders are becoming more fearful of one. Than in itself can signal that a break will be more volatile as other traders will scramble to exit out of shorts.
I haven’t heard anything at the moment but we should expect some large stops to be sitting through 5.00.
That is very valuable to me, thank you. That could happen if Erdogan starts meddling directly with central bank affairs (which he can now). I will be more careful
Nice one Marek. As you know I don’t have much confidence on TRY but yesterday it did put up a nice performance. Today idem. I’m holding off for now to try and trade it long…
Good morning all,
A tad surprised by the USD getting all this credit tbh vs EUR yesterday but yields are what they are and Powell’s upbeat message has got the better over DT’s poor showing and EU-Japan trade pact signing.
I’ve been in/out of USDJPY and EURJPY longs, back long USDJPY. We’re rising very gradually , there are barriers to hunt for and CNH/CNY-JPY seem to be monitored closely. As long as USDCNH will rise, chances are USDJPY follows the flow. Also the flattening yield curve has had little impact on the steady rise. EU-Japan trade pact signing should be good for Japanese bourses, weigh on JPY by correlation. Lastly USD… it’s on the up. I’m keeping it relatively tight with a 30 pipper trailing stop in case something would make it abruptly reverse.
Trading GBP from the short side on mainly scalps. Risk of a harder line May, a stronger USD will overshadow rate hike expectations for now imo.
Leaving TRY alone for now. Seems Erdo’s admin has calmed markets a bit and funding costs are holding off players to be short TRY for to long.
Updates on any others as they come
Safe travels and happy hunting
Chopped the USDJPY long for now, leaving room to roam
Morning all.
Well my usd cad shorts were doomed a few hours ago. That hurt. Very messy markets for me with little real direction. Usd/cad will be an epic short but i’m not picking tops. Usd/mxn is showing remarkable resilience in the face of Usd strength which makes jobbing the short side tightly a decent play.
Got E/J short running with tight stop and U/J short running tight stop from near spot.
Looking at WTI as well. It bounced nicely last night off the lows. There are some big levels down below and as long as they’re intact the bullish bias remains and dip buying is the game in town.
Good luck all.
Good day folks
Updates first.
USDMXN shorts still looking good so happy to keep holding.
GBPUSD long – I added back the half I took off after the vote at 1.3105 and left an overnight TP in of 1.3120 on the lot. Not the 1.3220 I was looking for after the vote but you have to adjust to what the Pa is telling you. Not that it mattered anyway as moved my stop to 1.3095 on the whole lot and that was hit. I still finished up but not as much as I hoped to be.
UK CPI is the main number today and given the PA and trend of the day, I’ll be looking for an opportunity to fade a good number spike. I’ll be noting all the details from the CPI report before making that judgement.
USDJPY could get very interesting if we head into the big 114 area. There’s quite a wide band to this range and that’s from 114.00 to 114.70. Technically, 114.00 is more of the starting gun rather than the trading level. 114.30-70 is where I’d look to build some shorts just to test the tech levels.
As always, good luck trading today.
Morning Ryan, well that didn’t go as well as I hoped 🙂 . PA is king if something is happening be warned, if something is not happening be double warned. i can hear Mike P in my mind saying just sell the f..king rallies, pardon me he wouldn’t swear lol , atvb Chris
Ryan what life feels like sometimes 🙂 ,atvb Chris
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rv7_2YHFMvU&list=PLs7H6j7qZieZCWiUasLt1naUkpSdcnD9S
Nailed it mate 😀
Lol the clip after is Barbara Windsor in her prime, she is now suffering from Alzheimer’s 🙁 Old age can be very cruel. atvb Chris
Morning Chris
Looking dodgy isn’t it. Glad I tightened up my stop a touch. That’s the conditions we’re in. 1.30 could be a big big level.
Hi Ryan yep 1.30 is the level everyone will be watching. We’ve come back a bit due to a bit of general dollar weakness but cable always surprises so lol, atvb Chris
With the 1.3010 low, that could well be the hold now, seeing as 20 has held too now.