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The sacred disco ball is flying in the trading room . The weekend starts here — Not an easy week for me as I’ve encountered a few problems here and on the live blog . The ‘great firewall’ has been living up to its name and keeping me on my toes trying to stay connected. I hope you have all made a few pips this week. I’ve known easier weeks yet there is always opportunity and we never have to trade the bigger view if the feeling is not there.
Collects more scalps than Crazy Horse and newly crowned Bitcoin & Dow top calling master.
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
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ohh this market got me bored hope for some actions :
remain a euro seller at core and adding 1.1420-30 if got there already have one 1.1390
still a gbp rally seller unless brexit is solved out of the blue and we are living in wonderworld …
remain jpy dip buyer in crosses and a dx dip buyer
have a nice weekend all
Great weekend for you too big Kebaab . Thank you kindly for you company this week as always
and thank you all for all your work…
have a good day everybody and have a nice weekend, too!
You too VB.
Short EURNOK. Yesterday Norway CB almost confirmed rate hike in
September, while the pair reached 3-4 months high. Adding on further
rally into nearby strong resistance and more, if beyond.
HI Prutar, I tend to agree on the side.
Been looking at it and holding back as USDNOK broke through a TL resistance all the way from 2016.
I may give it a go soon.
As of my experience (for example from last December and January) the pair is so illiquid, that for certain time it could be well bid for no obvious reason, but after some time it will return to fundamental picture, especially, if rate hike in September, spike down should be guaranteed. In any case and because of this reason I think right strategy is to start small and add into further strength.
Thing is though, everybody knows the rate hike is a done thing but the market hasn’t reacted to it yet. I will be monitoring signs of topping out. Could be anywhere between here and 6.85. Safe travels
DNB (biggest bank in norway) wrote that is was sold 15 billion NOK last week and a total of 52 billion NOK the last 6 weeks…speculated that its mainly from foreign institutions..If the selling of NOK stops it could go fast.. but at the moment to much selling of NOK to gain traction and some fairly big spikes and moves recently..agree on eurnok short for the longer run..
Any special reason mentioned for that selling ?
unusual high numbers for NOK..no reasoning offered..the bank is also confused about it..
You are also short at the moment ?
yes.. was caught off guard that the first 2 hours after the CB yesterday moved eurnok that much north though 🙁
CB just said things was going according to scheduale
I don’t know your size, but if you have possibilty to add, then I think longer term this CB’s divergence is sure play. Was it anything in CB’s statement, that could fundamentally spark this move ?
not that i could see..and analysts dont say otherwise today..suspect the flows are just too much for NOK to handle at the moment..low liquidity kills NOK a couple times a year..last half of december is the worst!
(nok is always sensitive to oil and risk off also…and the last week has of course not helped on that front but that was not the case yesterday)
So, as Ryan said, such situation is actually the best. But for going in small and add…. There is very strong resistance at 9.72, from where it bounced 100 times… 🙂
Nope, i think eurnok wil keep rising:)
Lol…..You think so !? Any special justification or you only think that, because it is rising at the moment ?
any reasoning on that view? becasue of oil/risk off/CB policy?
Probably another currency analyst, that likes to draw lines to extrapolate current momentum. 🙂
dont knock the idea…only way to learn is to discuss with people that have different views..and eurnok was almost 10 less then a year ago..if it was november now i would not dissagree with him and give him a better then 50/50 chance since its not behaving/corresponding with oil and risk off events as it “should”..
Everything is possible, but I like such plays, as I said. When all is summed, it always returns to the yield play – carry trade, so the best is to keep amunition to 10 and beyond, if needed. So…..from your words I would say, that you are quite heavy. Do you have stop ?
no stop..playing for the long run and benefiting from the rollovers are in my favour..
So…why do you say, that you “were caught off guard”? Would you go out and resell higher ?
because i added before the cb when i expected them to say what thay said and it looked like the world might take a chill pill….i just thought that the CB would be a “positive” thing….haha..sure did not look like it 😉
yes, i will resell higher
I see…..yes, the reaction was really strange….
Here is the zone indeed but I would even add up to 9.85 as an extension. I’m close to jump in it now we’re having a coffee chat over it 😉
CAD and NOK have been decoupling from oil at times lately making it a bit more difficult to gauge the currency moves on that base but I definitely share the view scandies do better in better risk climate. I’m leaving SEK alone for now though with the elections looming large and right wings making a push for it. Nok looking to start to buy dips
Against EUR or also USD ?
Mainly trading EURNOK , USD could be in play if EURUSD bases but I’m not out of that one yet. Into Swedish elections NOKSEK may be worth a punt as I mentioned.
I love anomalies like that Prutar. They can test your patience sometimes while you’re sitting in a trade knowing it should be moving in the direction you want due to the fundamentals but it doesn’t for a while.
Fantastic analysis and reasoning folks. Brilliant to see such sensible and well reasoned discussion. ?
Indeed, and something that went completely missing “elsewhere”.
Have a good weekend all (in a few hours).
Have a good one yourself AGP.
I will be spending it climbing mountains on the Isle of Wight
.Have a super one AGP
Good morning all.
Get the Friday tunes spinning.
Trade updates:
USDMXN short still in. Going to definitely slice some if I see 18.85 today.
USDCNH short running. Again, looking to halve it at 6.85 (what’s with the 85’s today eh?)
EURUSD short from yesterday at 1.1398 was tipped for half at 87 and the balance at 60.
Just been discussing that the buck has a soft feel today. EURUSD looks like it wants to move into 1.1400 but we’ll see. We can’t take anything for granted in these markets right now.
Sticking to the edges of intraday ranges is still the sensible play at the moment, and if they break, I’ll look to the wider levels. It’s not been a particularly active week for me, as it hasn’t been for a few months now and perhaps my patience is starting to wear thin a touch, so I need to keep a handle on that otherwise I’ll start chasing trades that aren’t really there, and that’s never a good thing.
Have a super day all.
Good morning all TGIF,
Got a smalls bearish feeling on USD this morning
-Short USDJPY, added small this morning early doors,
-Short USDMXN running, jobbing halfs around in the 18.80-19.20 range. Brought down the range as the 19.38 spike was pure TRY related. Trump is the Nafta risk, otherwise a deal would have been struck already, that’s now very clear after yesterday’s Lighthizer/ Trump’s overlapping comments. Still reckoning a deal is not far.
-Added tiny long EURUSD , despite CPI risk. It’s tiny, leaving ample manoeuvre room. 1.1345/55 will need to hold or a return to 1.1430 or even 60/80.
-CAD CPI this afternoon. Sharpen the harpoons as CAD is a mover on data. I’ll be watching 1.3090/00 and 1.3180 for action without a bias but since I have a weaker USD feeling today, I reckon a good CPI may have a bigger impact.
Safe travels, happy hunting and listen to some fine Aretha Franklin songs today
I’m still holding short positions in EURUSD and USDJPY from last Thursday. EURUSD and GBPUSD contained in recent range on 4H, look like they are going to break the top resistances.
Oh, similar as what super H experienced, the ‘great firewall’ bothers me from time to time too, this is not the worst time though, I ever encountered that I couldn’t even connect with my broker’s server, that is the part reason why I’m not yet ready to join your trading room, to make this looks like a trading idea: long USDCNH if someday you lost contact with super H:-)
Everyday is a surprise with the connection Chen Xiansheng
I will be waiting with a glass of baijiu to welcome you ?
Ganbei and let’s go kara OK, have a super weekend, H:-)
lol ?
Short usdcad tp sub1.29 to1.28. SL 1.318-9
Morning/Afternoon/Evening Dubsy, I’m never quite sure what time it is where you are. Yep I wondered why Ryan was doing GWTF now I know why and I think I have trouble with bt lol.
Its not just in your part of the world there is a general creeping shutting down of views/idea’s that are not of the establishment line all over the west as well esp noticeable to me in the UK, but as it is gradual most don’t notice or see it or know the difference. Any semblance of the idea of fair balanced debate like we used to have in the media/life is long gone, Now we have opinion disguised as news more than ever, never mind the facts,truth investigative journalism is dead if its not on the favoured narrative line :(. atvb Dubsy Chris
Hi Chris. There’s a scam going around with BT at the moment. Don’t fall for any calls claiming you’re having problems, even if you are and they know lots of your details.
Afternoon Ryan, yep already had that, some from UK numbers some from abroad. They are trying to get control of your internet as well I think as the first phone call the man pretended to be a BT engineer saying a problem with my internet and wanted to know which lights were on my router. When I handed him over to one of my sons who knows his stuff he had a panic attack as my son gave him short thrift. There are too many crooks about Ryan , atvb Chris
Hi Chris , had it too, calls from Open Reach trying to “fix ” internet problems and take control of the PC in the process. Warning to all UK users done by this.
Have a good one
Hi K first may I say what a good job your doing on here much appreciated 🙂 unlike bt as this scam is pretty wide spread now and I have not heard see them doing much to counter it, atvb Chris
Cheers Chris, appreciate! Only the best is good enough 😉
An early great weekend wish to you
Yep Chris mate .
These guys have their work cut out with me at my present location.
Always good to have the ‘phone a friend’ on speed dial ?
Little update on positions.
Took half the profit on short USDJPY around 110.50. Let the rest run for now or looking to re-sell arnd 111 if everything else equal. We’re inside the daily cloud, a fall though which is around here 110.40/45 can give us the acceleration to 109.75/90 initially. I’ll be jobbing to accompany the move lower if materialises this afternoon and see where we end up. Not planning to hold a great deal of positions over the weekend with more politics awaiting .
I also entered a small NOK/SEK long @1.0840, after having the discussion below. Got a feeling Swedish election risk is not yet fully priced in and EURNOK enters an interesting resistance zone here.
Still short USDMXN, jobbing the range, or at least planning to …
Stay safe and happy hunting
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