Here are today’s Trading views and Ideas for the day ahead.
Let us know what you are looking at – Charts – Trade chatter – Trade positions.
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The usual light economic Monday data calendar — A new week chock full of new trading opportunities. Keep an eye out for those tweets, Trump chatter and ongoing trade / political tensions.
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Few highlights for the week : after always showing in most illiquid
times those cheerful talks about china trade war those moves will be
reversed it is a pattern has been showing from long time i wont hesitate a
bit to buy those dollar dips …
As for eu : still room for the upside after hasset talk new sell zones
area 1.1480-1.1510 if got there .. as said previously will be caged
1.1230-1.1550 before another flush to the downside .. expecting turkey
downgrade to have in impact and stay stalling at 1.1450 a bit and a good place for shorts to enter
I am always in favor to buy jpy dips in crosses .. so eurjpy and gbp jpy
rally seller .. as uj : still holding in this range 110-111 look for
breakout after the minutes
wonderful week all
Morning Harry. Quick question on your EURUSD short strategy, as it might be useful reading for some.
Let’s say your 1.1200 target looked unlikely, at what point and what things would you look for to determine that it just wasn’t going to get there?
As traders we have to look at what happens if the market doesn’t want to play ball so just want your thoughts.
hi Ryan : first i look into cot to see what changes has been made and not only the past week … who are the drivers and when they lose money if got the other way and possible areas to defend their positions and where to hedge … for example shorts from last week at 1.1370 are trapped and they could be trapped more if 1.15 broke which i expect a big defense over there to be exact at 1.1480-1.15 …… cot lack the options part so i try to see the put build up and call build up and the gap between them ….
add to this some fundamentals and politics analysis …. and of course looking at jpy index and usd index they are big in determining the direction of eur most of the time
Good stuff. What part of the COT report do you look at, just the specs or all the rest?
there is a contributor post a simplified way to look at it goes from commercials to non re portables and their positioning ok not all are reported to cftc but they are useful to me
Gotcha. I’m not one to trust the COT stuff for it’s relation to spot personally. Too many variables involved. Far too many times I’ve see futures sit completely on the wrong side for months. Look at the JPY spec shorts last year. Offside forever but then, they might have all been hedges so what do I know? 😉
as you see i am not completely depending it on it …thank god been accurate on things and on timing
Yep. It all goes into the mix for gauging the sentiment. ?
Cheers Harry.
cheers to you to good work your providing always a supporter to this site mentioned earlier in a tweet
Very good morning traders and welcome to the new week. A bit of a slow one on the data front until Wednesday.
Managing what I’ve got is likely to be the theme today. I’m still tempted by that 1.3050 level in USDCAD but something is holding me back. The bounce from there is very very flat and that’s ringing alarm bells.
I’ll be watching EURUSD for signs that last week’s rally into 1.1400 is going to wash out. 1.1400 will be the deciding factor but the ease with which we’ve moved back through the broker 1.1420 area isn’t a good sign. If we do hold then I’d be looking at a short into 1.1500 should it come, and depending on the reason why.
Have a great week all.
always liked your posts when you were at FXL…good questions for Harry and follow up…thx Ryan
Thanks RB.
Good morning all,
-Short short USDJPY, could be a game of patience as we wait for more politics this week and FOMC/Jackson Hole. Reducing during the roll time to avoid paying to much funding…
-Short USDMXN, back in the 18.80-19.02 range, will trade that one again till clarity over Nafta.
-A left over long EURUSD from 1.1380s on Friday. Took some off at 1.1440. Back through 1.14 I’ll be gone for now, it’s not a high conviction trade. Other side I’ll be a happy man with a close to 1.15 print and probably reverse up there.
-Long NOKSEK 1.0840 , as per our Friday discussion I like the EURNOK to find a top not to far from levels we are at, SEK should wobble a bit before the Sept 9 elections.
Have a great week all
“I like the EURNOK to find a top not to far from levels we are at”…..Hello K-man. Could I ask, what for example would satisfy you as a sign, that such top is in place?
Hi Prutar. A return sub 9.61-6150 and stay there would be a good first sign. Below 9.59 confidence in shorts should rise
short EURAUD and long DAX it’s all I have. Slow start of the week. I might jump in again in selling UJPY and CHFJPY rallies but carefully looking at which direction mkts want to take this week after friday US/China optimism