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A continuation of the weak USD moves again in Asia with overnight stops blown in many currencies — Sets us up for an interesting European session.
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short euro 1.1525, stop 1.1540 target 1.1478
morning all :
we had a range extension on eur and dont feel bullish by any means … it was tokyo fix some were trapped above 1.15 was an opportunity to close …. the area 1.1530-50 will be the death of this upside as spoke earlier about the wider range 1.13-1.1550 this range will be playable twice before it flushes down …
still dx dip buyer thank you trump for the dip
Good morning Flow army
Finally some real action. Markets perking up after the summer lull or just reacting to the Trump bluster?
Whatever it is it’s there to be traded.
Still running USDMXN and USDCNH shorts and no change to the plans there.
Late last night I went short EURUSD into 1.1500 and long USDJPY at 110.07 & 109.90. Purely playing the levels. Stop on the UJ was at 109.75 so I survived by a whisker.
EU looked like it wanted to break 1.15 late last night so just before bed I moved my stop right out of the way at 60 from an original 30. That worked out thankfully.
I’m happy to hold USDJPY for now but I’ll see how EU performs if it tests 1.1500. I might bail if it holds. Stop is back down to just over the highs at 45.
Good luck all.
Two shorts of EURCAD got stopped out at 1.5030, just reentered one at 1.5020 with 20 pips stop, targeted 1.49 but will reassess at 1.5 first. Trailed stops of EURUSD shorts from early Aug were hit this morning, reentered one short at the same level 1.153, stope above 1.56, will need to stay aside for a few days if get stopped out.
Good morning,
Short USDMXN, a tad short EURAUD( shaken by Turnbulls challenge overnight but just survived the stop) and long NOKSEK.
Still holding short USDJPY. Trump accelerated the move which already was pointing lower with shallow rebounds. Some profit taking took place sub 110 as Asian mkt went up. It could retrace a bit further back up to 110.30s but I wouldn’t expect a much bigger move up. Back through 110.50 I’m going to reassess the move or just ahead of Jackson Hole, which could add another dimension to Trump’s call via Powell.
Scandies are still moving in tandem, expecting EURNOK to find a top in the next 1% where Sweden’s election polls should be carefully monitored from now.A further push by the Sweden Democrats or other right wingers should add pressure to SEK.
Plan is to range trade this market with a sell USD and GBP rally bias .
Safe travels and happy hunting
morning kman, yes this yen trade has surprised me time and again. yen resistance at 110.16. I am really confused as to why it does not give a clean fall everytime and bounces back and forth. maybe you can throw some light having worked in that country before.
Just my view on USDJPY, if you don’t mind. I expected this bounce also from pure technical reasons….converging 100 and 200 DMA are usually very strong point and in this case in confluence with bottom TL of falling wedge.
if i am not wrong the pros in japan usually trade ichimoku and moving averages make take a 2nd look
I guess not only Japanese are trading this second most important pair……
The low boundary of the daily cloud now is around 110.5, and the 100/200DMA are at109.9. Hope they hold so we can trade in between.
USDJPY has just been very resilient in the range. It’s very much caught in the middle of this broad USD buying we’ve seen and the JPY action. Out of all the currencies over the last few weeks of EM volatility etc, it’s done virtually nothing.
As other readers indicated, we’re in between levels here. There’s TL coming up(109.80 today) and a good fib at 109.90. 110.50 arnd the bottom of the daily cloud. We could hang around here till Jackson Hole. I’ll try to trade that range until then with a core short. The lack of taking a clear direction is USDJPY is because JPY is driven by interest rate differentials, risk sentiment and the subtile tapering by BOJ. I remain core short for now as bounces are shallow, even through bouts of risk positive action, positioning is still short JPY and due to BOJ. I’m flexible on any additions and in the meantime keep an eye on the funding( we pay everyday to be long JPY, which is another reason why we see rounds of short covering inside the range), hence tend to have larger positions during the day time than overnight.
Hello K-man. If you don’t mind. I’m curious…. Now EURNOK bounced strong from almost exactly the level, where it bounced many times in the past. Are you short or what is your plan now ?
Hi Prutar, for the moment I’m long NOKSEK. I didn’t dive into EURNOK as of yet but just starting to see signs we may be topping above 9.70. In the build up to next months’s very likely rate rise, I’m looking at it with more attention. I may wait till a reaction post Jackson Hole to dive into it. Not that Jackson Hole will change anything for the NOK but it may affect markets as a whole. I will update as soon as I decide
Thanks….. 🙂
keeping the short EURAUD and long DAX. Added yesterday a long Dow. And a long ECHF on which I’m jobbing in n out, long again now at 1.137. UJPY to sell on rallies, as CHFJPY but careful if UCHF breaks 0.987/5. Need to wait a bit to better assess EUR sentiment and other things
Disqus has suddenly appeared for me . I was getting dizzy watching that circle spin around and around 🙂
I’m short EURUSD from 1.5124 . Short some EURAUD + EURNZD cores after taking some profits yesterday . – Looking to sell USDJPY once again. I still have my scalping cap on in the current market environment . Feel there could be some decent USD buys in the majors, yet not many clear signs of where to get in.
Have a super day and stay nimble on the headlines .
Morning here Dubsy 🙂 had yesterday off good choice lol, Just seen your earlier post putting your stop just above asia spike days high is very wise. I feel were in a bit of no mans land so nothing from me at the mo, atvb Chris
Morning Chris . I wish I had taken this session off 🙂
A bit of a bore- fest after Asia promising a little action.
Yes , dont blame you for sitting tight …… Squashed hands and numb bums all round 🙂