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Morning folks.
Updates:
EURUSD long from 1.1703 scratched after taking half at 21.
EURGBP long from 0.9035 sliced a bit at 0.9091, stop on bal at 0.9070
USD shorts vs MXN, CNH & JPY all running.
USDJPY was looking good yesterday. It had gone through 111.00 and was looking creaky but then US consumer confidence and a a mix of the 110.90 support and other majors finding tops vs USD saw that turn around. As long as we hold below recent highs, I’ll be happy.
EURUSD: I’m going to count yesterday’s high as a first failure of the 40/50 resistance. We can often see good protection of a level coming in just ahead of it, like a first defence. Any second attempt today needs to be watched carefully.
As always, good luck today.
any view on CNH and gold?
Morning Cheung.
I’ve not been watching gold but I see my old friend at 1180 has been showing its hand again. This is one of those levels that’s stuck in my mind for a few years. It’s been an S&R level going way back to 2013.
As for CNH, I’m going to start to wonder if we see it make another move lower and up towards that magic 7.00 level, now that we’re passed those last meetings with little positive outcome. I might shave a bit more off my USDCNH short if we get another dip under 6.80.
why dun u invite your friends to be here and share views with us?
HI Cheung, I’m not in USDCNH right now, have been trading it from the short hand but scrutinising the 6.7850-00 on the downside. If that goes , there should be more in store. In the meantime range and watching PBOC fixings. They made a big adjustment to the USDCNY earlier. The bulk may be done for now. 6.8525-86 should come in offered or we may get that test close to 7 again if trade spats come back into play.
Good morning,
Still smalls long EURUSD, short USDJPY and long NOKSEK.
Will be trading USD shorts( vs majors, not EM) on rallies as month end nears. Models calling for rebalancing USD sales end of this month again based on equity and bond moves. Not surprising as US equities hit new highs on a nearly daily basis. I’ll be playing the clock and levels. Disclaimer: late rates or stock moves can change the picture somewhat.
-First support levels EURUSD 1.1665, the 54 then 30/40. I just added a pinch at 68, looking to add more lower for as long as we don’t get any disruptive news.Will be taking profits on a move bck to 1.1720/40 on any excesses and rinse and repeat if the occasion presents itself.
-USDJPY seems pegged but the signal is pretty strong for now. Short as long as we are sub 111.55/60, see where we end up later this week.
-NOKSEK still going strong although Norway’s finmin Jensen talk abt the budget being kept back to prevent NOK from rising to fast isn’t to much for my liking. As long as EURSEK follows the move it’s ok. We’re at 1.0960 now, I scaled back half so far. Still aiming for 1.1040s before the Swedish elections.
Safe travels and happy hunting
Hi K,
appreciate your updates as always. What do you think about long-term short USDSEK? Thanks!
Hello Speedy,
We’re undeniably at interesting levels when it comes to the 9.20-25 zone for people who are bearish USD and with deeper pockets, but I prefer to wait for the Riksbank next week and the elections to show us the way tbh. There may be some more stress ahead of it. At let’s not forget SEK is also a low yielder. Short USDSEK for a longer time will cause funding to pay. I need more clarity in the move to enter a longer term position. IF anything would show up I reckon for a starter short EURSEK or long SEKJPY may be a better option if one wants to avoid to pay the carry. For USDSEK to come off longer term, we need a break back below 9, which should come with global USD weakness, maybe on the back of waning trade tensions and a good outcome on the elections.
Thanks for that K, really appreciated!
euro pending sell at 1.1657. if we don’t take out that levels by US data we may not see it today