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The last day of the trading week . Once again the news has trumped the data ( pun very much intended ).
Have a fabulous Friday.
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i dunno why there is so much hype about draghi upbeat talk the move yesterday was all jpy and dollar nothing has changed and central banks lowering forecasts we still in summer range….
selling euro 1.1735-50 area
selling ej 131.33-50
have a nice day all
I agree Harry. The Draghi effect wasn’t that he was hawkish or bullish, it was that he wasn’t dovish or bearish, and even that wasn’t strong. The bigger effect was rewriting of some Fed expectations for the path of hikes over the CPI data. As we’ve seen time and time again, USD doesn’t move on good US data, only bad (or perceived bad) data, as that potentially puts a dent in the Fed’s path for rates, and that was the case yesterday. If we get another print like that next month, USD will crap out bigly, so watch those shorts of yours 😉
the thing to watch in my view is trade war and as long this going on usd is not allowed to be weak they slew the pace only of the upcoming strength … market now is on relief..that’s my view on usd and 93.80-94.10 still welll supported …juncker signed the death of eurozone area when he said he want the euro the world reserve currency this particular question was ignored by draghi yesterday and we all know what happens to whom who challenge usd in politics …dunno i might be wrong but this a euro bull trap wont have legs
Trade war is one thing, the US being a yield destination is another. Which other major country is raising rates like the Fed or has growth like the US? That’s a big draw for investors with or without a trade war. Bull trap it may be but don’t underestimate how big a trap it might become before it springs 😉 Another CPI print like yesterday and EURUSD will be 1.20 and possibly more. Just highlighting the possible risks in play.
you right and i am with you on this didnt say i contradict or ruling out but have little chances for me lets see how it plays out.. i am ready for any scenario
Ryan, I don’t understand totally the reasoning. You say, that motivation for investors is USD as yield destination, but this fact will stay regardless of one or two bad CPI’s. FED will not start to lower interest rates and it’s a big question when, if ever ECB will be able to seriious compete on this field. A little lower CPI’s however are logical consequence of strong dollar, but just 1 week ago wage component of NFP surprised on the upside. I agree, though, that risk comes from undervaluation of EUR on PPP and current account sufficit basis.
Hi Prutar
It will but flows don’t happen for one day and then they’re done, so the perception would be that if the Fed do pause hikes due to inflation falling back (I’m certainly not saying they’ll cut rates at all), then that can cause not a reversal of these flow but a pause. If you get a pause in USD buying then you’re going to get sellers overcoming them by pure weight alone. That’s how central banks have been traded for years during normal times.
Good morning all. It’s Friday and the disco ball is up.
Updates:
USDCNH short slow cooking
Shorted EURUSD yesterday at 1.1695, halved at 1.1670, just added to the bal at 1.1720, will again into 1.1740, stop over 1.1750. Big high up at 40/50 but nothing lasts forever 😉
Short USDJPY at 111.95, halved at 111.80. If 80 breaks and then hols, I’ll start pulling my stop down.
Have a great day all.
eur, chf, nzd, is on the list to buy, selling usd, jpy