8 Comments

1. 

   Suel on October 25, 2018 at 8:05 am

   http://disq.us/p/1wtovhk

2. 

   Suel on October 25, 2018 at 8:06 am

   It looks like Dollar Index is going to test the recent high in the coming days. G/U and E/U broke the support , they are bearish . But since Draghi is today and the markets are near the recent lows limit the risk and play the short term..
   https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8619d9efaa87bb8c30942a9d5a514e3b657f2d0780deb773634e179bd756ff22.png
   https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d12ac4401e9fdbc231c14136fc3981a32bb162b563e489e9c630e02caeb4d79b.png
   https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/715381db64040e099a6fff2c0f5075a8b16215892e3cd9e9efde006a284dcc65.png

   • 

     H Dubsly on October 25, 2018 at 8:18 am

     That could also be interpreted as a bearish sign at some point in the future (IF) those highs cant be taken out A-D — . EURUSD and cable are certainly feeling the heat indeed. Thanks for the chart Suel and best wishes for today.

3. 

   H Dubsly on October 25, 2018 at 8:09 am

   Ahoy hoy.

   Another big CB day. Yesterday was a thriller with the CAD trades. Well done to everyone who held their nerve
   ……… and their shorts into the decision.

   I’m holding short Down Jones US30 — short EURJPY. Closed the short USDJPY for +45.
   Gold hit resistance in Asia and has since come off a tad . I booked the part long positions I was holding and now searching for a level to add back.

   Going to watch EUR later on. Hopefully there will be a trade in it at some point .

   Have a super day ?

4. 

   K-man on October 25, 2018 at 8:30 am

   Good morning all,

   -Small short USDCNH, will be adding close to 7.00, the big one of course, with a stop above. I don’t think a break should come before the G20 but keeping it sensible.
   -Short EURJPY from yesterday’s 128.30/35 break again, managed a bit on the decline we saw, still in waiting for the the Dragster. It was a risk and tech trade initially, now a pure risk trade, back through 128.45 I’ll be out of the rest with some pips banked on parts.
   -Had a cracker on the medium term EURCAD shorts, closed most yesterday banking a nice few tons in pips. I did re-initiate a sliver this morning 1.4860 with a stop above 1.49. Not going in full wack, need to gauge CAD strength
   a bit” the day after” .

   Big few days in the making for equity markets, risk and USD imo.US equity markets gave up yearly gains, at the same time seeing good overall earnings. The market choses to look through them, anticipating worse in the future but the yearly guidances only proved them half right. There’s been a big shift from stocks into bonds. Let’s see how we run today/tomorrow. In theory we should see some rebound but if all fails , there could really be blood on the streets. I’m open to any scenario but my trigger finger is closer to the USD “buy” button.
   Watch US durables and tomorrow’s GDP for triggers.

   ECB? In my opinion no move, keep QE end for Dec, rate hike expectations for fall 2019. Draghi to build in some (welcome for him) caution after a few upbeat meetings as data started to slide and the Italian comedia is dragging on. But an extension to QE would be understood as implying a possible rate hike push back and mean two steps back, creating an even bigger gap in interest rate differential expectations, to much for now imo. That would be THE surprise trade for us if he would announce such thing and unleash the bloodhounds to put even more pressure on Italy, possibly the whole PIGS environment. That’s not my preferred scenario, I don’t have EURUSD open but put a gun to my head, I’d also be short EUR for that reason.

   In any case I expect some decent moves ahead.
   As usual safe travels and happy hunting!

   • 

     Jimbo Zhou on October 25, 2018 at 8:45 am

     HAhahha. K-man, w/ your “gun to my head” scenario– Ima buy EUR just for the added fun&smoke+mirrors:) Zero-sum game requires some worthy opponent.

     • 

       K-man on October 25, 2018 at 9:55 am

       Lol Jimbo, imagine the fight if it were a zero sum game. Lucky for us it isn’t .
       But to have a market we need buyers and sellers. Wishing you well in your trading.

5. 

   Ryan Littlestone on October 25, 2018 at 9:11 am

   Good morning all

   Firstly, well done to the guys in the trading room, many of which rode the CAD BOC wave to some very nice profits. For me, it didn’t go as smoothly as I wanted it to but it’s the result that matters. Being able to share views and opinions with other great traders and people really helps in some of the decision making, so I offer thanks to them too.

   Updates;

   USDCAD shorts (avg 1.3060) – Balance closed yesterday evening as my trailing stop was hit at 1.3030. I got a bit too greedy and had a partial TP at 1.2950 and 1.2905 and probably should have moved my trailer down further. But, I’m not going to complain too much after offloading slices all the way down.

   GBPUSD longs (avg 1.2998) – Still holding and adding small on the drops. I’m watching moves under 1.29 carefully as I don’t particularly want to be stuck under 1.2880 so I’ll re-evaluate my plan if that happens. I managed to cock up a good scalp from 1.2900 yesterday because I got spooked out in the initial break, only to see it bounce through 1.2930 after.

   NZDUSD short (0.6595)- Balance closed this morning at my TP level of 0.6505.

   USDCNH short – Second entry filled this morning at 6.96, adding to my 6.95. I’m layered up on the offer to 6.99

   Today I’m watching EURUSD carefully. I think that after the latest data yesterday, there’s a few in the market who have gone short thinking that the ECB might kick QE. The general consensus here at FFL is that they won’t shift the QE end date, though it’s still a risk we can’t rule out. If they stay their course, these latest shorts are going to bail and bail fast. I’ve got a mind to take a small long into the announcement but I’ll look at the PA before then.

   Draghi is the main event today so stay safe and I wish you many pips.