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Some decent option strikes today — Watch out for Ryan’s daily options board.
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Good Morning closed my cable short trade yesterday for 70 pips – This morning waiting for cable to pullback then go short again euro also looks vulnerable so waiting to see how strong the pullback is then possibly go short
You’re in the zone FXJ.
been a good week so far – I am considering shorting cable as the pullback seems to have found resistance at 1.2750 (about 50% pullback of yesterday swing low) but I feel hesitant about going short for some reason – I think the 1.27 level maybe difficult to break
It’s always difficult to keep doing the same trade after you’ve seen a big move the way you’ve been trading. The fear of a bounce in cable rises the lower it goes. That shouldn’t stop you trading that way but if you’re more nervous then the way to counter that is maybe to go smaller in trade size and keep our stops a little tighter. That should reduce some fear and allow you to trade your plan with less risk, so if you are wrong, you doing start eating into big chunks of your prior profits.
Exactly as you say the fear or likelihood of a bounce/turn keeps increasing as the price keeps going lower – its like playing chicken – keep short until the last possible minute if you chicken out too soon you lose out on profit stay in too long and you loose out on profit
Looking for some of announced USD strength today. Target for EURUSD short at least 200 WMA, for USDJPY long at least 113.50….
There’s a few of us on the same page Prutar my friend.
I’d hit a short into 114.00 without blinking based on the huge level it is (but depending on the reason) but that might be wishful thinking 😉
Top o’ the morning to you
USDCNH is the only trade on the books still. Again we’ve seen another high, if only by 50 pips but they’re still happening. This one came 3 pips off my next entry.
EURUSD I’m still interested in at 1.1300 but we’ve seen good protection coming in at 1.1330 for now.
USD is still in the end of month frame so we need to bear that in mind while watching moves. There’s a growing feeling about shorting USDJPY into the London fix later. As Kman pointed out, there’s still a USD bid into fixes as was proved by the highs in USDJPY over the Tokyo fix. The general feeling is that this USD strength could fade after EoM. It’s something to watch anyway.
Good luck today folks.
Good morning all,
Final day of the month, Final round of USD buying? I’m playing the clock with that USD demand by jumping in/out of some pairs from the USD long side into the various fixings, especially 4pm Ldn fix.
-Still short EURUSD, will cover at 4pm London and maybe reverse then. Especially a print sub 1.13 will see me interested in playing a bounce.
-Short 1/3 EURJPY, the 128.50 makes a good fist of it, stop on that bit through 60. 127.70/75 will decide upon the faith of the position to the downside. A break will see me add, a hold in turn cover. Equity mkt watching on that one(sigh)
-Stopped out at b/e on a small short cable try from last night. 1.2700-50 and 1.2660-1.2775/80 wider range trading till tonight from the USD long side still . Watch EURGBP around 12:00 gmt for a hint that Buba is done EURGBP buying. 0.8880-0.8935 the range I’m watching there unless Brexit news hit the wires.
-Short small USDCNH. PBOC involved in HK bills, Chinese banks selling forwards in preparation of (?) ,repeat to want to defend 7.00. Cautious after those PMI’s though but I reckon there’s a fair chance 7 is defended until Trump-Xi meeting late November.Let’s see.
Fixings trading, option expiry trading and equity market watching, add a dose of CAD GDP and US PMI’s, I’ll be erring on the snipers’ rather than the big manoeuvres side today.
On the CAD, unless GDP comes in much weaker, I wouldn’t mind selling the 1.3180/00 if fixings would take it up there.
Stay safe and happy hunting.