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NFP US jobs report 1230 GMT
The Trump / Xi luv in gets more serious as a date night is planned . What could possibly go wrong ?
Collects more scalps than Crazy Horse and newly crowned Bitcoin & Dow top calling master.
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
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Lookin’ to add on the existin’ short positions on usdchf this day
Target ; 0.96
Not lookin’good for usdchf — Hard sell upon the break of 1, target ; .96
SL level u say!?–Existin’ shorts accumulated up to 1.00828; So go figure my stop..
0.96…..I think it will be quite difficult to achieve……that would imply EURUSD at least 1.19, since this is almost inverse trade with SNB supporting EURCHF. 200 DMA at 0.976 seems maximum in my opinion. Quite expensive trade for keeping long term.
Good start for those shorts JZ, well done. I’m smalls doubtful we could get down to 0.9600 in current context in USDCHF. Not saying USD is not going to weaken, I’m rather that camp too in the immediate future, but today’s weakening USD is paired with the better outlook for risk. That would mean EURCHF should absorb a part of any EUR rise, making it tougher for USDCHF to achieve an equal decline. Add a pinch of SNB supporting the drops for as long as USD doesn’t enter a broader global selloff…
I’d say if you get mid to low 0.98s, have look where all the rest is trading. By that time we may be close to the topside of the 1.13-1.18 EURUSD box.
Have a great day’s trading.
Good morning,
-Short 1/2 EURGBP, 1/2 EURNOK, 1/4 EURAUD, 1/4 USDCNH.
-Kicked out of left over EURJPY short @ 128.80 by deal makers of all sorts and BOJ upping its JGB buying slightly at the start of the new month.
-The EURGBP running well, stil lin the scenario of a deal in the making and an upbeat BOE yesterday. Trading the lower range for now. Expecting a 0.8735 test soon. Topside should be confined to 0.8810/20. That is of course if we don’t get an avalanche of denials each side of the Channel.
Cable has reversed due to not only Brexit expectations but a combo of USD weakness, month end sales drying up, a hawkish BOE and genuine buyers off low interesting levels. Unless a deal is totally off the table, I reckon the broad base 1.2550/1.27 cable will hold long term and if a deal is made , double push for GBP as BOE will rush into a rate hike. My opinion only folks.
-USDCNH half profit taken at 6.8850. Trump possibly preparing a deal added to PBOC, govt stimulus initiated decline. But from US’ side, there the overhanging doubt it’s just a midterm election stunt. Not running blind shorts , hence banked 1/2. Rinse and repeat above 6.95 if seen.
EURAUD same scenario , taken another leg profit 1.5765 on room initiated sales @1.5894.Monitoring 1.5820ish fib for a rinse and repeat but will trade closer to the chest ahead of the weekend. Always a 48hr denial/ friction risk there.
-EURNOK short is not going anywhere, monitoring 9.5450/9.5600 topside, need a break under 9.49 to start rolling.
US NFP/ wages: I’m expecting meh payrolls but as per latest data pressure in wages should continue to be on the up. You know what that means, the surprise will be a weak one. In that case my favourite buys would be cable and the commod currencies. In case we get a serious beat, fav short EURUSD or USDCHF long for a quick spike. But something tells me we will find USD rally sellers who are waiting for the data and may have missed yesterday’s boat.
CAD unemployment: totally open with a preference to be long CAD on better data and hawkish BoC of late. Cad suffered with oil this week, data could put it back in the saddle. Will trade the outcome as it comes. Cad is a wilder mover, so if in the mood for trading it, look at the broader points of interest:1.2950,1.2990/00- 1.3130 or even 1.3180/00 USDCAD.
As always stay safe, get your wider levels ready, don’t be too greedy on tp’s (trade parts around) or too loose on stops .
Happy hunting
Happy Friday all.
Updates:
USDCNH shorts – It’s valentines day in November for Trump and Xi and that’s seen this pair sink. I was waiting for 6.90 to break and it has so I’m thinking about taking a chunk off the table. I’m watching 6.88 here for signs of another break.
EURUSD longs – Another great round of trading from the some of the folks in the room who all jumped in too. I got in at 1.1305 and halved it at 25 as I was away from the office Wednesday afternoon so wanted to take some asap. I sliced a bit more off into 1.1400 but I’m going to try and stay on this train as far as possible. Running a 50 pip trailer and I’ll look to slice bits off as/if we rise further. I think 1.15 might be a possible end of the line, temporarily or otherwise.
Given the mood against the dollar. I’m going to look to fade any intraday/data dollar strength.
Good luck today everyone