This is the only FOMC preview you need to read today

It’s the November FOMC meeting today, here’s what to expect

Here’s how to trade tonight’s FOMC.

Read this:

BBG hike odds 13.4%
RTRS hike odds 5.8%

2. Do this;

In all seriousness, there is very little expectation for this one, with the market baking in the fourth and final hike in Dec. Well, I say “baking in” but the odds aren’t that high at 68.1% on BBG’s metric. That perhaps shows some trepidation among players. What the market will be looking for tonight is that all important comforting arm around the shoulder that nothing has changed and the Fed are not swaying from the path. On that front, the stars are still aligned;

CPI 2.3%
Core CPI 2.2%
PCE 2.0%
Core PCE 2.0%
Unemployment rate 3.7%
Wages 3.1%
GDP 3.5%

Not much wrong with that set of numbers and nothing that’s going to shake the Fed.

As I mentioned before the last FOMC, the market’s attention will be half on the last hike of 2018 and half on 2019 expectations, so it’s probably any mention of that that will drive prices. There’s no presser so it will just be the statement.

Trading wise, I’m going to be watching the strong resistance 114.00 to 114.50/70 and I’ll look to sell any kneejerk into there. I’ll also be looking to pick up a dip in EURUSD because I don’t think we’re done with the 1.15 level just yet, and we have that massive expiry tomorrow. Mainly I’ll be looking to fade any USD strength unless there’s some big game changing news.

While expectations might be very low, always expect the unexpected so have any USD trades well covered an in control.