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The markets were quick to place a Dovish sticker on the Powell speech. 10 year yields are falling towards the psychological 3%. Rev up the engines. This is gearing up to be a fun race with plenty of pit stops and hairpin bends .
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Good Morning Everyone – not a great week so far closed by euro short as it failed to push lower just 3 pips but to be positive I was well out of the way before the speech – My CAD SWISS trade did not do a lot better after some dodgey PA in the afternoon I closed for just 5 pips – This morning short CAD Yen
Hi FXJ
That CAD has been playing very strangely the last couple of days.
seems to be continuing so – I am off to Brussels for a long weekend so have a good weekend Ill be back Tuesday
Good morning all,
-Short USDJPY from yesterday high 113s into Powell, managing half around, keeping half open for possibly 112.60 if USD rates stay low.
-Short small EURSEK , missed the opportunity to tp yesterday on the 10.25 handle, lower GDP and cautious Riskbank putting a bit of stress on it but it’s not big, will wait with this.
-Tried short EURGBP last night but that didn’t work, out for -17p. Buba and Brexit jitters keeping me on the side for now. I might re-enter some form of long GBP at some stage to play a surprise May support in the end.
End of month flows are favouring the USD. This could provide a few short term counter trade opportunities around fixing time. Thinking about JPY and the commods .
Looking to reenter some EUR cross short as German CPI’s falter. Move above 129 EURJPY or closer to 1.56 EURAUD are tempting.
It’s all going to be relatively short term and for sure smaller as G20 approaches. Since we’re going to have Saturday meetings and reactions, it’s gap galore nearly guaranteed come Sunday night. I’m not going to tempt the devil with anything large. A few messy sessions ahead…
Safe travels and happy hunting
Belated GM all
Whippy end to the day yesterday eh?
USDJPY short is the only trade I’m in, other than USDCNH shorts. We’ll have to see how much the market really puts into the Powell event but also US 10’s not breaking 3.0% properly will help USD from falling tooo far further. We’ve also got EoM in the mix so lots going on to muddy the waters. I’m looking for a break under 113 but I don’t feel like I’ll get it right now.
I’m still debating what to do with my USDCNH shorts. I haven’t had any significant drop to offload more into so I’m contemplating leaving them on. I don’t really expect anything big from the Trump/Xi meeting but the risk is thee. There’s also a shared view that the PBOC might be on watch for any market shenanigans over this event. We’ve got a couple of days to go yet so I’ve got time to make a decision. Either way, If I get stopped I’ll still finish well up on the trade from rinse and repeat selling rallies and taking profit in the dips.
Have a great day all.