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Some distraction from all things Brexit today as Sig. Draghi steals the limelight with the ECB December monetary policy decision – 1245 GMT. Followed by the silver tongued one himself giving a live Diva performance in the press conference at 1330 GMT.
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Good morning,
-Short small EURJPY as long as 129.20/30 caps. May add or cut depending on Draghi. Being cautious not to run into too big shorts seen the continuous support BOJ is lending to ETF’s . The other edge of the sword says though that they may slow down as they reached their preset 6trn JPY yearly target already. 128.20/30 break would be a first sign this cross has deeper to run, if 127.50 would give way, it’d open a now world. Tonight Tanka may have a say in the debates.
-Short small EURNOK. Not much changed. Keeping it as long as the 9.70s keep a lid on it.
-Dip buyer on AUD. Keeping an eye on Chinese data of course but trade looking better.
Keeping it simple today.
ECB is likely to end QE, keep reinvesting the proceedings of the purchases made. Draghi can still err on the cautious side due to the latest lower growth and CPI data in core Europe.
But risk is looking a bit better now China seems to live up to its promises buying more soybeans, lowering US car tariffs and rethinking its 2025 planning.
Pushing and pulling both sides. Let the levels do the talking I’d say.
I’ll be watching both ends of 1.1310/20-1.1430/40 this afternoon if we get that much. EUR crosses should be decided by by the an pair imo.
Safe travels and happy hunting.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cf2bbc86b1a2192df68616877eb9a53c7bb51436264ec67de806cb693820d232.jpg (Test after test after test.. Well, u see th epicture, short accordingly!)
ALSO Today will likely mark the end of the massive bond-buying era of the ECB. Its balance sheet tripled in size to keep pushin’ inflation towards the target. Core inflation, however, is just 1.0%, and the last time it came close to the target was more than six years ago!
Morning all
ECB day is upon us and the end of QE, whoopee.
Trading wise: Had a small short late last night in GBPUSD as I thought the May news wouldn’t be too positive today. That was wrong so shorts at 1.2634 & 55 were stopped at 1.2680. Still got my option though but I might be folding that it nothing comes from May over the summit. This week has been another lesson in how the best laid plans can change in an instant over this Brexit mess. One minute we’re setting up for a vote on Brexit, the next we’re looking at a government collapse. All fun and games.
I’ll have something up on the ECB shortly but I’m still a willing seller into 1.1500 in EURUSD, unless there’s something wild from the ECB.
Good luck and stay safe folks.
The scalping hat is firmly in place until the market decides to man up and pick a direction, rather than these timid moves that confuse and frustrate.
I’ve cut back of every trade I have been involved in from last week because of the lame price action and the lack of follow through.– Shorts in NZDUSD, NZDCAD, GBPAUD. NZDJPY – all reduced in size with some profits banked . — Long AUDNZD the same…. Roll on Sig Draghi . Let’s see if he can conjure up a bit of the old magic and give us some levels to trade off .
Have a super day ?