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Some algo fodder to come in the session, in the form of UK November PPI / CPI data at 0930 GMT. The eagerly awaited main event is the FOMC later from the US. This meeting should be viewed as having bigger connotations going forward, as the data from the US, along with the trade talks have possibly shifted the balance on the frequency / extent of future rate increases.
Collects more scalps than Crazy Horse and newly crowned Bitcoin & Dow top calling master.
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
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Morning all.
Welcome to D-day for the Fed. A lot of questions to be answered today hopefully but no doubt we’ll be left with more.
Updates.
Still long USDJPY in small bits from 113.30 to 112.25. Will bid for a final slice into 112.00. Stop below 111.80.
As per the trading room last night, shorted USDCAD into 1.3500. TP’s some at 1.3471, 1.3451 and my stop is now down to 1.3510.
All being well we should see ranges tightly contained into the Fed.
Good luck.
Good morning all together,
traveling very light into tonight’s FOMC. Just a tiny long USDJPY 112.38 as a punt since the market is trading whatever outcome as negative going into the decision. My base case is still for a cautious rate hike. Data have not turned yet, the Fed’s mandate is not hold up the stock market if the players want to test it. They warned already in November they would look at upcoming data but the market failed to listen then. That should be sufficient again imo. Holding off from a hike would kill the Fed’s “independence”.
A cautious hike should see yields move back up, underpinning USDJPY. It should outweigh more equity markets downside but the uncertainty commands me to keep positions to the minimum.
I may counterbalance it with a short EUR cross going into the decision as EUR “should” be a slower mover due to weakening data if the USD slumps. But will update if I do.
Safe travels and happy prudent hunting. Don’t forget we’re in end of year mode with liquidity starting to decrease.
The play today couldn’t be more simple: Fade kneel-jerk $usd reaction(if not, short all the way down,then) to start buildin’ mt(6months) positionin’ of core dollar shorts; dxy upward trend as far as we’re concerned– It is over.
Good Morning – stopped out of my NZD/CAD short again but managed to scalp the pound for 30 pips – when it got to 1.27 I thought it just had to at least pullback and it did – today I am not trading I will wait for the FED
Ahoy Hoy
I will be placing profit stops on my existing trades and doing plenty of hand sitting until the main event today.
‘If In doubt stay out ‘ is preferable to any guess work as the time ticks down. Best of luck later for those trading the fallout. There will still be plenty of time to analyze after the event once things settle.