A few short term levels I’m looking at
Yesterday’s USDJPY didn’t survive back through 112.75, it sometimes happens when we enter a momentum trade, we’re not invincible(yet).
Back into neutral territory then.Here are a few levels I will be watching for action going into/after Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen’s speeches tonight.
On a side note, there’s some thinking doing the rounds about how BOJ will look after the Japanese elections on 22nd October.Especially now that Koike seems to put up a good show against PM Abe
and at the same time Japanese numbers showing constant improvement, testifying the latest Tankan report.In my opinion , unless Abe sees a huge lead in the upcoming polls, it may keep a lid on the JPY crosses in the next few weeks. I’m a rally seller GBPJY and EURJPY on 0.5 to 1 % rises from current respectively 149.50 and 132.50 levels.
- USDJPY : -support 112.20/25 , below there we may want to target the 111.50 again.
-resistance 112.90 and 113.20. The former one has just seen a test on better US ISM numbers .Yellen has the key to make or break.
- EURUSD: The trade is still very much alive,but for today I’ve dramatically tightened up the topside just in case the Draghi-Yellen combo would create an unexpected surge in the EURUSD and placed the stop on the short position above 1.1790 which would guarantee a nice profit. Reassessment or new trade above .
-support 1.1711 , the weekly 200MA. Break should grant 1.1660/80 and eventually the target of the position in the 1.1560 zone.
-resistance 1.1790, stop on a break , risk for a return to 1.1860 or 1.1890/10.
- GBPUSD: Been trading in/out shorts on the way back down with some success but for the day I’ll leave the price action decide after Mrs Yellen and trade breaks
-support 1.3240 and 1.3215.
-resistance 1.3320/30 should cap, if not shorts may get frustrated and run for the exit up to 1.3380
- USDZAR: Right in the middle of 13.43 and 13.72 break points . Both have been and a little outside, probably on stops. I still respect both levels and will trade breaks for
a targetted 1pct move .
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