USD loses ground across the board 27.12.2017
With some logic, as I mentioned before, the rebalancing flows based on equity performances is negative USD again this month/quarter/yearend.
In an currency neutral investors’ portfolio , as US equities outperformed, the receivables will have been larger than in other currencies .Hence the moves we see these days to bring the currency outstandings back to equilibrium. Since Japan and Swiss equities have been doing well , the need there is indeed smaller, hence the moves there too, with the respective crosses advancing.
In addition we’re seeing position adjustments as P/L’s need to be consolidated and reported. That is likely why we see currencies such as GBP and NZD in demand as the market is underweight in these.
I’m smalls short USD vs EUR and JPY( based on eco numbers this one) and tiny CAD and AUD just to accompany the move, purely based on the flows, expiries and fixings .
It’s tempting to counter some of these moves, like cable and kiwi for instance, but I will wait until the fixing on the last day to jump in anything against what I see now.
In an illiquid market ,for those who’d like to counter trade the flows, know that moves will generally exaggerate beyond some tech levels, we need to give leeway and look for the next .
Here’s a snapshot of where we stand around 2.00pm gmt
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Hey K I’m long EURUSD too, from 1.1851. I think it could test the resistance at 1.194. Key moments here.
I’ll short USDJPY if and when EURJPY hits 135.15 or signals a swing, there are some channels and pattern leading there.
I also shorted AUDUSD here at the 100 day SMA though it could overshoot to 0.778 or a big higher. Should retest 0.773 sooner rather than later, I think GBPAUD, EURAUD and AUDJPY could retrace a bit into week end.
Still short USDCAD from past week at an average of 1.279
Underwater on WTI but holding on that, I’m looking at it as an overshoot of the 38.2% ret of the big move down from 100s. Could work if people stop bombing oil pipelines …
Also looking to short USDMXN sooner rather than later …
Hi 5m , sorry for the delay in reply , had to take of more earthly things yesterday, some yearend bugs in the family’s health kept me away from this.
Nice EURUSD position. I’m holding on to my USD shorts for now. The Yearend USD supply seems to continue in a very natural and smooth way outside expiry and fixing times . I’m putting trailing stops on them this morning.
The tinies first : AUD at 0.7775, CAD will be1.2640. I’ll cover both on tomorrow’s fixing regardless where we are then. In AUDUSD case might open a short then.
Then EURUSD :looking to put it up to 1.1925 this morning . I expect some resistance around 1.1960, then 1.2040 .
USDJPY 112.95 will do. I expect traffic in the 112.35/50 area and for sure 112.00/20.
I will also cover both into tomorrow’s fixing if the smooth USD selling continues
Don’t worry for the delay K, I hope everything is ok.
EURUSD hit my TP at 1.194, closed and short now to see if we close the year at 1.19. Tight stop.
I also cashed USDCAD short close to 1.26, I’ll be selling rallies.
AUDUSD I’m short looking for 0.775/3, also shorted AUDJPY above 0.88 looking for 50 pips
Thanks 5m , son at that age (15) will recover faster than I would with me old bones hehe.
I got rid of AUDUSD and USDCAD .Still running the smalls EURUSD and USDJPY. I’ll put up an update shortly on some other pairs
On USDMXN I agree , I was hoping for a move above 20 as there seemed to be enough nervous buying into it . 20.10-20.20 looks attractive.
Also thinking MXN/TRY long , I am till bearish TRY , MXN would lighten the carry cost