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Morning traders.
Some early thoughts.
1.20 in EURCHF is becoming the must-watch show in town. I’m still in with a buy stop at 1.2010. Learnt too late that there were barriers at the level yesterday, which might explain that big slap down on the first attempt. Still plenty of sell interest there though.
I’m also still interested in selling a first test of 108.00 in USDJPY and will watch the PA carefully.
Good luck all.
I think that was a trap ryan. today’s JPY move was a pure trap. It does not have the fundamentals to reach 108 and stay well above.
Hi….. I would be interesting to hear, what is rational for so confident opinion about “there is no fundamentals” to reach 108 level. I mean, if we talk about fundamentals strictly: Japan with the biggest QE on the planet with no end date in sight due to no improvement in inflation, negative interest rate……and USA, currency already among top yielders, with 5-7 hikes in next 2 years. p.s. I am aware of fear trades and safe heaven demand, but since you stated fundamentals……
USA with 5-7 hikes?? even the dot plot don’t foresee so many hikes and US economy cannot afford that especially when we are so close to getting an inverted yield curve. pattern like this was last seen in 2005-2006
5-7 hikes in next 2 YEARS. And what is fundamentally so good in Japan with slow growth, extremely high debt, aging population and unflexible economy…..except account surplus (that is important)…..
Karaoke Fridays in the trading room ….It’s worth it just to see Si get his groove on ? ? … ?
Grooving, grooving baby 😉 Morning your H-ness
Thank you …. The original Austin Powers :)))
🙂
My Kiwi short trade going well . Not a bad level around here below 0.7250 to gauge further weakness .( yellow line on chart ) .. 61.8% of March-April low -high https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8115e57cd2a82bd3ea9f0e7c8d2a46c57a50e7f060a8593f6da57e2fb1b60cc5.png
don’t know where my comment on the pound went it vanished all of a sudden. posting it again. Two levels imp in pound now 1.4040 and 1.4119. if we take out 4080 we can forget about 4040 and pound will look to take out 4119. if pound does take that out it can make a new high. if 4040 is gone for today we are going down to 1.397x
Sorry Nachiket, every once in a while Disqus doesn’t load on a post and the old WordPress comment function pops in instead. If you don’t see Disqus load anytime, give your browser a few refreshes while in the post and usually it will kick back in.
Morning folks. I caught the carney comments nicely yesterday and shorted Cable with 2 full positions down to 40971. I took a long EURUSD at the same time buying a failed retest of the low. 1.23307. It eventually broke the low again but still in the game with a 1.23190 stop that has protected me overnight.
I then entered short Cable again when price seemed capped at my original exit 40970. Short from 40968. Currently stationary on the 50 fib of the January to February decline and a very important level on this latest Cable climb which we traded so effectively. Looking for 1.40100 and stay out of the bun-fight down to 3980/90 area, where I might be tempted to buy again. We have to get there 1st in this fickle game.
great. i think if we break 4040 we can easily fall 30 pips more especially when many traders like me are long. lol. having said that watch usd and it is struggling a bit. no matter what carney says if dollar sells off pound has to rally
yes N, I have the DXY tec`d up continuously. Still making higher-highs, higher lows. Nusged 90 psyche a short while agao. needs to get above there and try for the recent highs, 90.59 onto 90.93/big fig. I still believe USD lower to keep these markets a firm Dollar story. 10 yrs trying to consolidate the highs and then there is the curve story weighing some. BoE May hike odds tumbled to around 70% yesterday and then down to around 40%. I haven`t had time yet to look at OIS to confirm all that, but it`s all looking good to give a nice Cable dip to buy.
Never say never with hikes.
EURUSD – Trade update
Far be it for me to try make sense of the mighty EUR
I’m still holding short from 1,2386 . – Watching the PA here for any clues to sustainable USD strength . Looking to add again on weakness – Watching yesterdays low
Next stop is the big fig at 1.2300
Bring it on !
Panic or a bounce ?
Great stuff Dubs
I haven’t started singing in the room yet ?
You got the big fig just now Dubs….great stuff mate. I hope readers have been following your shorts in that pair
There’s more bells being rung around here than Notra Dame. Great plays all round.
Good morning,
I bought some Usdjpy last night on the CPI data ahead of the Toyko gotobi ( mutliple of 5 Jpse settlement day, usually sees corp usdjpy demand) dayfixing, took a fair bit off on the blip. I stil have some running, see how it goes on the US yields’ side 2-10, 5-30s differentials. and the 2.93-2.935% on the 10s which seem to detain the key to hot 3% or not seen the cap there last time .
CAD will be hot of course this afternoon. No preference , will “go with the flow” or against it 😉 1.2575-85 on the downside, 1.2730 topside are my levels of interest.
BOE Saunders to speak in a bit, a hawk , may give the sellers a better level to knock a few cable on the head .
Happy hunting and karaoke on !
A few thoughts from the live room:
Cable market waiting for Saunders to speak bottom of the hour
SiHeath:(10:02:56) : That`s BoE`s Saunders
gaboss:(10:03:59) : ok, let’s see if he makes market more uncertain
SiHeath:(10:10:07) : At the last BoE meeting, Saunders was one of 2 members who voted for an immediate hike. See if he gives any kind of clue as to whether he sticks with that or whether he softens (as unlikely as it seems with him) IF he is asked, I believe he will confirm his vote for a hike. That may or may not put a floor under Cable. However, DXY is rallying above 90 now. The big risk is that he softens.Cable will plummet IF he does.
SiHeath:(10:13:57) : Also doing the rounds is that UK`s Irish border proposals look set to be rejected. Watch out for IF that hits the wires. That couild bury Cable for today at least and possibly into next week.
SiHeath:(10:15:08) : Guppy could be a good choice if that hits
Cable market waiting for Saunders to speak bottom of the hour
SiHeath:(10:02:56) : That`s BoE`s Saunders
gaboss:(10:03:59) : ok, let’s see if he makes market more uncertain
SiHeath:(10:10:07) :
At the last BoE meeting, Saunders was one of 2 members who voted for an
immediate hike. See if he gives any kind of clue as to whether he
sticks with that or whether he softens (as unlikely as it seems with
him) IF he is asked, I believe he will confirm his vote for a hike. That
may or may not put a floor under Cable. However, DXY is rallying above
90 now. The big risk is that he softens.Cable will plummet IF he does.
SiHeath:(10:13:57) :
Also doing the rounds is that UK`s Irish border proposals look set to
be rejected. Watch out for IF that hits the wires. That couild bury
Cable for today at least and possibly into next week.
SiHeath:(10:15:08) : Guppy could be a good choice if that hits
It’s been a fine day ——- Pips have been very positive in our Trading room.The live trades and suggestions posted here were nothing short of fantastic .?