FX closing rates Friday 27.04.2018

The world leaders’s gone all flowers and love and peace off late. Only Angela doesn’t seem to fit in Trump’s Orange Garden, and the poor sod is probably the only honest one in this picture puzzle. Angie , Angieeeee…
The odd one out could be Xi-Trump but their delegates gave us something to smile over in regards to open Trade talks, love is in the air there as well.
I really wonder why risk is not flying …

Sorry to interrupt you babes, can we have a market please?

And what a market we had. USD came back with a vengeance this week, only to lose a bit of its shine as rates settled on Friday and Month end flows don’t see to be as large as may have been anticipated. It sparked the short termers to close to high short term USD longs especially against the EURO which has seen a big unwind of longs this week. NZD’s turn around, a risk safe haven this days thanks to its high yielder status was the other outstanding event.
EUR and CHF in tandem, GBP and JPY lost most ground, USD of course stands out as the winner with CAD a close second in the G10 space as Nafta seems to find a solution soon.
Note Cad and MXN divergence: one won’t, the other will have a wall. Comes at a cost….More on Nafta from the 7th May, there’s room for consolidation on the CAD even as the outcome is likely to be positive as a lot is priced in now on that side imo.

Next week’s Golden Week could be a bit odd for the JPY with Tokyo closed for the best part of the week. What does that mean? Well there’s a risk JPY strengthens a bit as pre Golden week corporate and holiday goers’ active currency demand is done as where the rumoured exporter offers, barriers and other tech hurdles will still be there between here and 110. An overshoot on late Month end demand may be a sweet opportunity to get long JPY next week, if not vs the hot USD potato, maybe through a cross such as weaker data ccies: EURJPY , GBPJPY for instance.

I’m going pretty empty into this weekend, it’s been a ball this week but I’m not overly sure what’s waiting around the corner.

I say stay safe, enjoy a perfect weekend with friends, family  loved ones or high up in the mountains to resource. Don’t forget to come back down from your cloud though to enjoy another cracking FX week in our company from Sunday night .

Don’t do what I wouldn’t do


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