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morning all
nfp day or non event day ? i am leaned towards to be non event day the results wont affect a June hike
dx still well supported and with jpy strength the move will be in the jpy crosses ..sell gbpjpy and eurjpy rallies
uj still well protected from the downside in 108.70-80 area
eur : narrow range trading remains for 1.20 will be a ceiling and 1.1950-60 a floor till options expires be aware of false faded breakout and bull dreams (if we had) will end at 1.2155
sitting on my hands gbp but looks bottom-ish arround 1.3480 area
happy trading alllll
Ahoy hoy Harry.
NFP’s can offer some good scalping opportunities for the brave. and be fun.
Somewhat overhyped . The great thing for me is that they fall on a Friday. Time to kick back and realize some profits if fortunate ………….Chill out and catch the weekend vibe .
Thank you for your fine contributions this week my friend ?
thank you big H great to be here i believe sharing thoughts can help the trader.. suggestions will be made can tweak his entries ..yes scalping opportunities agree but if there was volume the move can be big this is something to watch
HI Dubs,
today a big day: NFP! I’m still short USDCAD where the 1.29 resist worked again, I’m targeting here a 1.2660 or lower. I’m short EURGBP as I think on GBPUSD we will find soon the bottom while EURUSD can further sink to 1.17 level. In a smaller timeframe I will look to sell EURCAD and EURJPY on higher levels if seen.
Mornings Gabs.
Yes……I too have had a dabble to the short side on USDCAD with a few small feeler positions.
The levels are clearly defined here …. So no great shakes if it goes against me and takes my bus fare home ? A big miss or beat on the numbers is what we need to shake up some of these USD pairs depending on our preferences . I will be going into NFP’s with light holdings today, and try to Assess any fallout from data after the event .
Morning folks…All square running into NFP`s. I won`t trade just for the sake of it after a blistering run. NFP`s have the potential to fill a few pieces of the puzzle in investors minds on how aggressive the Fed will be going forward. June seems priced in around these DXY levels for now. Investors want to know how many more hikes and when. Watch the yield space post NFP`s as well as the DXY for clues as to where the Buck might go.
Be lucky
Whoohoo NFP day!
Love a bit of NFP. It was the most electric day on the LIFFE floor. 13.20 and the pits would be bursting. It was a real mosh pit fighting for space. If you were small, you were stuffed. Lots of noise in the run up then in that final 30 seconds the whole place went deathly quiet. 2000+ people and you could hear a pin drop. All eyes glued to the screen and then the number would hit. There would be another half second while it registered and then the place would erupt. I’ve got an old calendar from 1992 (I believe) in my old LIFFE Jacket, torn out of the FT on a Monday and used for the week. It covers the July NFP of that week and it was expected in at 55k vs 205k prior. The other details are similar to today. Unemployment was at 4.5%, average workweek hours 34.5, hourly earnings 0.1%.
Enough of the trip down memory lane. Today’s NFP is all about wages as usual. Go with that number first and the NFP second.
I’ve picked up small USDJPY at 109.03 and happy to hold that. I’ll take some off if we run up to around 109.20. I’m still a buyer/seller in USDCAD 1.28/1.29 and will try not to chicken out this time as I did yesterday.
Good luck today traders.
Good morning all together,
I only have 2 positions running for now.
-Short EURSEK , with the jobbing in smalls in between fires,the average is pretty cool now around 10.65. Planning to let that run a bit as long as 10.70 caps.
-Short 1/2 EURNZD from mid 1.71s. Bought some back on the way down; Stop is now down to the lowest entry at 1.7125 to guarantee profit on the trade. Target for another slice 1.6970.
-I sold some USDCAD last night @ 1.2880, hoping to get it back low 1.28s but I was a bit greedy it seems . I did buy em back this mrng 1.2865 for 15p . Will jump back into it closer to 1.29 or on a weak US data print.
I’ll trade the rest as it comes and on China-Us headlines we surely we get more of today. Seen the US demands below I ‘m inclined to err on the risk rally sell side as China might find all of this a bit intrusive..
US delegation in China said to have reiterated its demand that China narrow its trade surplus by $200B by 2020; Have US to reserve the right for additional tariffs
– US asks China not to target US farmers in trade moves
– US asks China to halt some subsidies for made in China by 2025
– Asks China to strengthen IP protection and enforcement
– Asks China to issue investment negative list by July 1st
– Ask China to meet quarterly for review process
We’re all still looking for Dubsy’s Yellow Arrow he lost yesterday. The best I could find for you big H is a ribbon, can you use that for your charts?
Happy hunting on our karaoke Friday at FFL folks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAuGWd_hDnM
Good vid ?
Sir, do you provide trade alerts for your setups, i am not able to make trading profitable, any advise please?
Most of our trades are discussed in detail in our live trading room Kashif. Our trades are not intended as signals but are purely our own thoughts.
It sounds to me like you need help with your trading rather than trying to find people to copy, and we’re more than happy to help you with that.
Hello Kashif ,in addition to Ryan’s reply
Be aware there’s a lot of homework that goes into trading: reading news, examining and updating charts, finding the right indicators to watch for a trade to support what’s going on in the markets fundamentally, technically and mood wise. We are all individual traders here and ready to help and interact with fellow traders on any question to form their own opinion and find their trading style(short, medium, longer term). At the same time putting up the trades we engage in.
Read through the posts and comments we’re putting up and I’m sure you will learn a lot about trading and the way we look at the markets. We have a high quality team and equal readership . Also read the education posts for some great additional knowledge on market events and moves and how we use them.
And be patient patient. Trading is 95% work , 5% talent and 99% patience and 1% trading time if that much. A lot of times losses derive from impatience and therefor to tight stops in between levels or in no-mans land as we call it. The market has, is and will move without our trades , know that. We can only judge what’s in front of us and trade accordingly based on what is happening at the time and pick our levels well to minimise the risk( cash and emotionally) and the frequency of losing trades, which there will always be, regardless how good we are. We’re never safe against unexpected headlines or adverse flows out of the blue.
If we need to wait we will, if we need to jump into a trade we will.
Welcome
Stay safe and happy hunting
Hello K-man,
How do you define “no-mans land”? It would seem that price is always between levels of some sort, on any chart and time-frame. Or were you referring to having a tight stop within the same levels as the trade was entered?
Thank you.
Hi Stephen, thanks for the question.
No-mans land will have different and changing areas as you say as time goes and events hit the market.
But look at this morning for instance on EURUSD as an example. We’re in between the latest day’s traded range defined by fibs 1.1933 and 1.2030 n tighter in between 1.1950-1.2000 . Trading right now may be tempting for a short term trader to jump into once we see the price move by a few pips, thinking it’s taking a side. But it’s actually not, the market is just adjusting positions ahead of the US employment report. Entering a trade as tempting as it may be is a 50/50 flip the coin. A short term player may think it’s on the move without reflecting what causes the move and put his stop 10-15 pips away. but the next hedger may be around the corner and sell it off again in this time and take back 10/15 pips lower . That’s what I mean by trading in no-mans land. It is not tempting me https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ad9df4b16528d315c76958ac53615dc2864d533e22675ecfb9635ba9a907e0be.png
Thank you K-man. So would you be waiting for price to move out of the 1.1933 and 1.2030 fibs before considering a trade? Or when does that area cease to be “no-mans land”?
In the expectations of the US data, I would sit back and wait for these levels to tell me what to do well after the data and taking into account the importance of the event. If the levels hold, I may countertrade and put my stops outside the levels . If they break and the data support , accompany the move and put the stop and/or reverse back inside , this just as an example of what’s possible .
For the time being I’m in “patience” mode.
That’s an awesome description Kman, well done sir.
In every expert there was once a beginner. We are indeed here to help in any way we can.
Welcome Kashif
You are such a pain in the Belgium K ?
Where’s my morphsuit?
If it has yellow on it ?
I am taking an early weekend mate
?
Put in the German flag way if you’re gettng a bit fragile ?
Since no smog in Beijing yesterday and today, I recon the negotiation gentlemen at both sides are free to take deep breath if needed, thus peace is more likely to be the outcome for this round of talks. Continuation of USD strength will be decided by next Monday, sell euro in the mean time:-)
That’s good news Chen. Did they have to shut all the factories down a week before the visit to clear the air?
They usually do, but this time I wonder they wanted to do the opposite, so Yankee would be made aware what they are really asking for…:-)
Hahaha
Don’t listen to Ryan Chen ?
I have assured him Beijing status