Some background on who’s most likely to win the Mexican elections
We’ve been writing about our positions into the event, please follow the link here. Fro those who don’t know who the main candidate is, this Reuters article on our friend “Labrador”‘ as we call him gives some good insight. There are still many uncertainties on how the relationship with the US will evolve which could cause major upticks at times once the supposedly new president Obrador will take office. Also on how the internal politics surrounding investments will go but there are positive signs as a local entity of Bank of China just got the green light to operate and Obrador’s wing man was upbeat about further plans and the currency.
I reckon we got this one right with our shorts, yesterday’s call by Trump to get more funding for the Mexican Wall had maximum 0.5% impact on the the rates. The market is starting to buy the negative MXN rhetorics less. Plan is to add to the tiny shorts on nervous upticks into the elections anywhere in midget steps again between 20.28 and 20.95. Looking at the latest market evolution, I reckon we can now bring the danger level to the position down to 21.50 or even close to 21. Above there would mean there’s something fishy going on and we may need to reassess the viability of it. The weekly top of the cloud coinciding with the 50% fib of last year’s decline around 19.75 will give us a clue after the elections on Monday. As I said on the initial post , we may reasonably be looking at 19 or 17.90 as tp levels looking at the speed and amplitude of the moves. I don’t want to look further back in time for now to get to greedy on these shorts as to many uncertainties ahead should prevent USDMXN from going back to historical levels sub 15 for instance. We’ll see IF we get down 18-17.50 there and then what’s going on …
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Great stuff K. 20’s is the number at the moment.
good post K, we need to see mkt reaction to the elections and Labrador first speeches. Mexican stocks are seeing some inflow of money too, here’s EWW.US the main ETF there: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c119d3cb666ce6a5807f07dcfa4de89e8631fdde6ce76aa0cbc654d0d7925ddb.png
Great stuff 5M cheers