Flow Data and Calendar
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US ISM non-manufacturing PMI shines above expectations
November 2018 US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data 6 December 2018 Non-manufacturing PMI 60.7 vs 59.2 expPrior 60.3 Business activity 65.2 vs 62.0 exp. Prior 62.5 Employment index 58.4 vs 59.7 prior New orders 62.5 vs 61.5 prior Prices paid 64.3 vs 61.7 prior Good...
Slight miss on the US ADP employment report for November 2018
November 2018 US ADP employment report 6 December 2018 Employment report 179k vs 195k exp. Prior 227k. Revised to 225k Small business 46k vs 29k prior Medium 116k vs 96k prior Large 13k vs 102k prior Goods producing sector 16k vs 38k prior Services 163k vs 189k prior...
November 2018 UK Markit/CIPS services PMI delivers a shock
November 2018 UK Markit/CIPS services PMI 5 December 2018 Services PMI 50.4 vs 52.5 exp. Prior 52.2 Marginal expansion of overall business activity Employment growth moderates to four-month low Business optimism weakest since July 2016 Input costs eased to a 6 month...
US ISM manufacturing PMI rises strongly but prices tumble in November 2018
November 2018 US ISM manufacturing PMI 3 December 2018 ISM manufacturing PMI 59.3 vs 57.6 exp Prior 57.7 Prices paid 60.7 vs 70.0 exp. Prior 71.6 Employment 58.4 vs 56.5 exp. Prior 56.8 New orders 62.1 vs 57.4 prior Good numbers but that inflation component is going...
UK November 2018 manufacturing PMI smashes it
November 2018 UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI 3 December 2018 Manufacturing PMI 53.1 vs 51.8 exp. Prior 51.1 Not all good news as export orders fell for the second month in a row, with Brexit the reason. Employment rebounded, as did prices in both input and output....
Final November 2018 Eurozone PMI’s shows the weakest manufacturing growth since 2016
November 2018 Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI final 3 December 2018 Manufacturing PMI final 51.8 vs 51.6 exp. Prior 51.6 That's confirmation of the weakest growth since August 2016. Business confidence is at the weakest in 6 years. But, it's only temporary. Prices...
Canada Q3 2018 comes in unchanged q/q ann but falls on the month – Oct PPI down
Q3 2018 Canadian GDP data 30 November 2018 GDP 2.0% vs 2.0% exp q/q ann. Prior 2.9% 0.5% vs 0.7% prior q/q September GDP -0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.1% PPI October 2018 0.2% vs -0.5% exp m/m. Prior 0.1% 5.3% vs 6.2% prior y/y Raw materials -2.4% vs -5.3% exp m/m....
US PCE unchanged, core softer y/y in October 2018
October 208 US PCE, personal income and spending data 29 November 2018 PCE 2.0% vs 2.1% exp y/y. Prior 2.0% 0.2% vs 0.1% prior m/m Core PCE 1.8% vs 1.9% exp y/y. Prior 2.0% 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.2% Personal income 0.5% vs 0.4% exp m/m. Prior 0.2% Consumption...
Germany flash HICP confirms the drop in the regional reports in November 2018
November 2018 German HICP and CPI inflation data 29 November 2018 HICP 2.2% vs 2.3% exp y/y. Prior 2.4% 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.1% CPI 2.3% vs 2.4% exp y/y. Prior 2.5% 0.1% vs 0.2% exp. Prior 0.2% EURUSD pretty much taking the numbers in its stride and is...
UK mortgage approvals jump in October 2018
October 2018 UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit data 29 November 2018 Mortgage approvals 67,086 vs 64,550 exp. Prior 65,269. Revised to 65,726 Mortgage lending 4.121bn vs 3.501bn exp. Prior 3.892bn. Revised to 4.015bn Total lending 5.015bnm vs 4.677bn prior....
US EIA weekly oil inventories jump
US weekly oil inventory data w/e 23 November 2018 Oil inventories 3.577m vs 1.000m exp. Prior 4.851m OPD 3.453m Cushing 1.177m vs -0.116m prior. OPD 1.302m Gasoline -0.764mm vs 1.000m exp. Prior -1.295m. OPD -2.620m Distillates 2.610mm vs -0.750m exp. Prior -0.077m....
US new home sales drop in October while supply builds
October 2018 US new home sales 28 November 2018 New home sales 0.544m vs 0.575m exp, Prior 0.553m Single family sales -8.9% vs -5.5% prior. Revised to 1.0% Supply 7.4 months vs 6.5 months prior Median prices $309,700 vs $319,500 Oct 2017 and $320,000 in Sep Negative...
US Q3 2018 GDP unchanged, PCE softer, spending and sales down
Q3 2018 US GDP 1st revision 28 November 2018 GDP 1st revision 3.5% vs 3.5% exp q/q ann. Flash 3.5%. Q2 4.2% Sales 1.2% vs 1.4% exp. Prior 1.4% Consumer spending 3.6% vs 4.0% prior PCE 1.5% vs 1.6% exp. Prior 1.6% Core PCE 1.5% vs 1.6% exp. Prior 1.6% Deflator 1.4% vs...
US consumer confidence edges down in November 2018
November 2018 US consumer confidence report 27 November 2018 Consumer confidence 135.7 vs 135.9 exp. Prior 137.9 Current conditions 172.7 vs 172.8 prior. Revised to Expectations 111.0 vs 114.6prior, Revised to Jobs hard to get 12.2 vs 13.2 prior. Revised to 1yr...
US house prices ease y/y in September 2018
September 2018 US Case shiller and FHFA house price data 27 November 2018 Case Shiller 20 City HPI 0.3% vs 0.2% exp m/m SAPrior 0.9% NSA 0.0% vs 0.0% prior m/m 5.1% vs 5.2% exp y/y. Prior 5.49%. Revised to 5.53% National HPI 5.51% vs 5.77% prior y/y. Revised to 5.69%...
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